after the redundant market gyrations triggered by the triple witch options expiration day ( 16.6.07), markets are turing reasonable, falling back to gravity at a moderate pace. bear stearns hedge funds problems linked to mortgage collateral securities are raising questions on the valuation techniques of these instruments and on the impact on us consumption following the spectacular liquidity driven cycle after sept 11 that has benefited us home builders. Equity markets look to be at a juncture and best guess and wisest development fron now onwards is a slow landing of indexes at lower levels ( see dax, supoport 7800, head and shoulder ?) . Yet , one point where the market is losing focus , interest rates , treasuries are hiking given the flight to quality shift from junk paper . not anymore a sufficient reason to step in , markets on the sideline waiting for the response of the fed this evening.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2b7e102a-2401-11dc-8ee2-000b5df10621.html
The Bear Stearns hedge fund fiasco removes the paradox. Banks’ capital is about to be slashed, and with it excess liquidity in the global system. Look at mortgage-backed collateralised debt obligations -– pools of debt assets, in which investors take stakes with different levels of risk. Suppose the CDOs held by banks were valued at “market” rather than “model” levels (a fancy new euphemism for illusionary historic book values). Their capital would turn out to be lower. Preservation of capital ratios against loans would require fewer loans: liquidity would have imploded......A bunch of hedge funds may have problems, but that is the tip of the iceberg for “Titanic” Wall Street. Who holds the toxic tranches? Answer: the originating banks and syndicating investment banks for the most part.....As these lower-rated tranches retain the bulk of the credit risk in the mortgages, their retention by such banks means the much-trumpeted shifting of credit risk off balance sheets was less than met the eye. If the higher-rate stuff is worth 85-90 per cent of face value at best, what is the value of the $750bn of mortgage-backed securities said to be held in US commercial banks’ balance sheets
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Monday, May 21, 2007
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
vietnam abn amro
http://www.abnamromarkets.com/showpage.asp?frmCookiesErlaubt=true&strosl=Russia&locale=EN&N=0&strotl=Region&Ne=10100000+10120000+10130000&nav=1&pageid=10&certid=65492&R=101065492
Monday, March 26, 2007
gorton/lime/ propgram trading
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/26/news/bxlime.php
Mark Gorton, the 'classic entrepreneur' behind Lime Group.
By Lisa KassenaarBloomberg News
Monday, March 26, 2007
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NEW YORK: Step off the elevator into Lime Group's offices atop an 11-story brick building in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York and into a crowd of more than 60 stone Buddhas and Asian lions, all handpicked by the company's founder, Mark Gorton.
To the right, down a staircase, is a metal door that leads to Lime Brokerage, which Gorton says trades stocks faster than any other company on Wall Street - as many as 6,000 orders a second. At the end of a long hall is LimeWire, maker of the world's most-popular Internet file-sharing software, with 50 million monthly users. The U.S. recording industry says the product is designed for infringing upon music copyrights - an accusation Gorton denies - and is suing for damages of at least $450 million.
Gorton himself sits at a corner desk with a group of mathematicians writing algorithms for Tower Research Capital, Lime Group's quantitative hedge fund, a firm with $117 million in assets. His next project, scheduled for this spring, is Lime Medical, which will sell software intended to help U.S. doctors reduce paperwork. He is also developing LimeSpot, Internet-based software to help people build and share Web sites. And he runs a nonprofit Web-based venture in urban planning, part of his pet project to reduce traffic in New York.
"He's a classic entrepreneur," said Fred von Lohmann, an intellectual property attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a nonprofit group based in San Francisco. "He has a lot of businesses going at the same time, and if they don't work out, he'll start three more."
Gorton agreed.
"My to-do list doesn't ever seem to end," he said. "The biggest problem is that I may not be able to keep the focus; I can get distracted."
Gorton, 40, is an electrical engineer and former bond trader who has degrees from Harvard, Stanford and Yale. The Lime companies are slices of Gorton's view of the digital future - one in which the right software will smooth almost any human interaction, from trading stocks to swapping songs, from recording a patient's medical diagnosis to placing speed bumps on city streets. His 140 employees are mostly computer scientists in their 20s and 30s who share his ideals, particularly that software should be open source - that it can be modified by any of its users.
"It's the ideas that push things forward for him," said Rob Hranac, who worked for Lime from 2001 to 2003 as a software developer in the charity wing and now heads business development at Berkeley Transportation Systems in Berkeley, California. "The money is a vehicle to get things out there."
Even though it is private, Lime Brokerage has attracted the notice of Scott Appleby, an analyst who follows publicly traded financial exchanges at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. "Lime is a leader, and this is the future of part of the broker-dealer world," he said. "Their pipes are built in such a way that you can get a lot of orders done in a short time."
But Gorton has his eye on other goals.
"I've beaten the markets a half dozen times and will do it a half dozen more," he said. "As a personal challenge, it doesn't mean that much anymore."
What means more, he said, is traffic. Gorton, who cycles six miles, or 10 kilometers, to work down the Greenway on the West Side of the New York borough of Manhattan and dreams of his three children riding their bikes on a car-free Broadway, said he spent $2 million last year on projects to promote pedestrian traffic and cycling in New York.
Since September, he has more than doubled the staff to 27 people at The Open Planning Project, the nonprofit group known as TOPP, which is developing software for a wiki, or collaborative Web site, to let anyone add to the urban planning in a given locale.
Gorton traded bonds for almost five years on the proprietary fixed-income desk at the investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston. In February 1998, Gorton and Alistair Brown, a Credit Suisse colleague and fellow engineer, rented a small office in Manhattan and started Tower Research with money they had earned at the investment bank.
Brown, who has an engineering degree from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, and who used to build computer systems to execute trading strategies at Credit Suisse, now is chief executive of Lime Brokerage.
Its trading is carried out by a hundred computers at a facility in Jersey City, New Jersey, where more than 50 customers, mostly hedge funds, also have their equipment. Those computers are set to profit from market inefficiencies that would be lost if their orders had to travel across town on a telecommunications line, said the chief technology officer of Lime, Anthony Amicangioli, who holds an electrical engineering degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and joined Lime in 2003 from Juniper Networks.
Lime's computers grab price quotes from exchanges like the Nasdaq Stock Market and the New York Stock Exchange in one-tenth of a millisecond. That is more than twice as fast as other companies offering so-called data delivery, Amicangioli said.
Once Lime grabs the price quotes, the system executes trades in less than a millisecond.
Brokers working to shave times are increasingly important as so-called program trading explodes, said Brian Hyndman, senior vice president of Nasdaq Transaction Services. That activity - by Lime and rivals accounts for about 40 percent of the roughly 2.3 billion shares traded every day on Nasdaq, Hyndman said. That is up from about 5 percent in 1999.
Mark Gorton, the 'classic entrepreneur' behind Lime Group.
By Lisa KassenaarBloomberg News
Monday, March 26, 2007
ord = Math.random() * 10000000000000000;
document.write('');
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if ((!document.images && navigator.userAgent.indexOf('Mozilla/2.') >= 0) navigator.userAgent.indexOf("WebTV") >= 0)
{document.write('');}
NEW YORK: Step off the elevator into Lime Group's offices atop an 11-story brick building in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York and into a crowd of more than 60 stone Buddhas and Asian lions, all handpicked by the company's founder, Mark Gorton.
To the right, down a staircase, is a metal door that leads to Lime Brokerage, which Gorton says trades stocks faster than any other company on Wall Street - as many as 6,000 orders a second. At the end of a long hall is LimeWire, maker of the world's most-popular Internet file-sharing software, with 50 million monthly users. The U.S. recording industry says the product is designed for infringing upon music copyrights - an accusation Gorton denies - and is suing for damages of at least $450 million.
Gorton himself sits at a corner desk with a group of mathematicians writing algorithms for Tower Research Capital, Lime Group's quantitative hedge fund, a firm with $117 million in assets. His next project, scheduled for this spring, is Lime Medical, which will sell software intended to help U.S. doctors reduce paperwork. He is also developing LimeSpot, Internet-based software to help people build and share Web sites. And he runs a nonprofit Web-based venture in urban planning, part of his pet project to reduce traffic in New York.
"He's a classic entrepreneur," said Fred von Lohmann, an intellectual property attorney at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a nonprofit group based in San Francisco. "He has a lot of businesses going at the same time, and if they don't work out, he'll start three more."
Gorton agreed.
"My to-do list doesn't ever seem to end," he said. "The biggest problem is that I may not be able to keep the focus; I can get distracted."
Gorton, 40, is an electrical engineer and former bond trader who has degrees from Harvard, Stanford and Yale. The Lime companies are slices of Gorton's view of the digital future - one in which the right software will smooth almost any human interaction, from trading stocks to swapping songs, from recording a patient's medical diagnosis to placing speed bumps on city streets. His 140 employees are mostly computer scientists in their 20s and 30s who share his ideals, particularly that software should be open source - that it can be modified by any of its users.
"It's the ideas that push things forward for him," said Rob Hranac, who worked for Lime from 2001 to 2003 as a software developer in the charity wing and now heads business development at Berkeley Transportation Systems in Berkeley, California. "The money is a vehicle to get things out there."
Even though it is private, Lime Brokerage has attracted the notice of Scott Appleby, an analyst who follows publicly traded financial exchanges at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. "Lime is a leader, and this is the future of part of the broker-dealer world," he said. "Their pipes are built in such a way that you can get a lot of orders done in a short time."
But Gorton has his eye on other goals.
"I've beaten the markets a half dozen times and will do it a half dozen more," he said. "As a personal challenge, it doesn't mean that much anymore."
What means more, he said, is traffic. Gorton, who cycles six miles, or 10 kilometers, to work down the Greenway on the West Side of the New York borough of Manhattan and dreams of his three children riding their bikes on a car-free Broadway, said he spent $2 million last year on projects to promote pedestrian traffic and cycling in New York.
Since September, he has more than doubled the staff to 27 people at The Open Planning Project, the nonprofit group known as TOPP, which is developing software for a wiki, or collaborative Web site, to let anyone add to the urban planning in a given locale.
Gorton traded bonds for almost five years on the proprietary fixed-income desk at the investment bank Credit Suisse First Boston. In February 1998, Gorton and Alistair Brown, a Credit Suisse colleague and fellow engineer, rented a small office in Manhattan and started Tower Research with money they had earned at the investment bank.
Brown, who has an engineering degree from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, and who used to build computer systems to execute trading strategies at Credit Suisse, now is chief executive of Lime Brokerage.
Its trading is carried out by a hundred computers at a facility in Jersey City, New Jersey, where more than 50 customers, mostly hedge funds, also have their equipment. Those computers are set to profit from market inefficiencies that would be lost if their orders had to travel across town on a telecommunications line, said the chief technology officer of Lime, Anthony Amicangioli, who holds an electrical engineering degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and joined Lime in 2003 from Juniper Networks.
Lime's computers grab price quotes from exchanges like the Nasdaq Stock Market and the New York Stock Exchange in one-tenth of a millisecond. That is more than twice as fast as other companies offering so-called data delivery, Amicangioli said.
Once Lime grabs the price quotes, the system executes trades in less than a millisecond.
Brokers working to shave times are increasingly important as so-called program trading explodes, said Brian Hyndman, senior vice president of Nasdaq Transaction Services. That activity - by Lime and rivals accounts for about 40 percent of the roughly 2.3 billion shares traded every day on Nasdaq, Hyndman said. That is up from about 5 percent in 1999.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
march 07
Gold and silver
Gibt es Parallelen zu Ereignissen in früheren Jahrzehnten, die mehr waren als eine lokale Erscheinung – die Saving-and-Loans-Krise in den USA oder der Zusammenbruch des Junk-Bond-Marktes – und wie lange hatte es damals gedauert, bis der Schaden behoben war?
Parallelen gibt es durchaus. In allen Fällen wurde dem Risikoaspekt zu wenig Rechnung getragen. Deshalb kam und kommt es zu schmerzhaften Korrekturen. Der Gesundungsprozess kann lange Zeit benötigen. So hatte es bis 1993 gedauert, bis die Saving-and-Loans-Krise von 1986 ausgestanden war. Der Einfluss auf die Börsen war jedoch unbedeutend. Von Anfang 1986 bis Ende 1993 ist die US-Börse immerhin um 300% gestiegen.
L'Europe tragique et magnifique - at 50Published: March 19 2007 02:00 | Last updated: March 19 2007 02:0http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9fab2078-d5be-11db-a5c6-000b5df10621.html
POSCO , Synthes, Burckhardt Compression,Axa, Allianz und Swiss Life , hsbc . MARCH OPTIONS DEADLINE .
eventually the correction came but I was not prepared , once again. the speed of the decline was faster than the last one in april 06 , the trigger was further away , china , and the reasons weaker but sufficient . I believe the market is going to jiggle but all in all will come back to challenge us again, the wildy , fiercy beast... funny enough to notice the comments of the press and the mass media , complacent with a smily happy face as per very recent , they are turning now into ugly screaming scared faces with in their front written I told you....rethoric works in finance too,and those believing in selffulfilling prophecies are trying to avert any major hysterical crisis by toning down the comments . one thing is clear , bernanke is out of control in his new position , incapable of playing the director in the symphonic orchestra , too much cacaphonies for the public , certainly he is less brilliant than his predecessor greenspan in managing and articulating the loudspeakers ...........he is a just a professor at harvard with no clue about life and the fucking public.
Monday, January 15, 2007
Saturday, January 13, 2007
JAN 07/ General Comments
JAN 07/ General Comments
do u want to make money . then try to short swiss small mid caps like sulzer . beta hiugher than smi
faber , inflation stagflation , buy gold , usd 480 possible if downturn in asset prices.
soft precious and industrial commodities
global warming , soft comm up, buy farmland in brazil/argentina very inexpensive in a world of inflated asset prices.
yen and asian currenciues undervalued. asian/ russian real estate
go long yen through call options . check singapore stock market real estate and stocks. thai market lower if foreigners out, wait couple of months.
2007 volatility would go up substantially.
In the meantime , rates scare , the fed does not cut ! oil dips down , nickel too, pharma and telecom are resilient . in china impressive utilities. dollar is up, short time ?
Amazing story , gas trader , 32 years old , usd 3 bio aum, 150% performance 06.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/69b7daf0-9c26-11db-9c9b-0000779e2340.htmlUpdate 2
or warnnats on the emrging markets linked to gdp growth paying off stellar retirns, see rgentina and bosnia.
Historsy of stock markets
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ef2bc4c2-91b7-11db-a945-0000779e2340.html
History repeats itself.....a bit too simple according to
Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms PIC by Russell Napier (CLSA Books; December 2005) as the best investment-related read of the year.
Martin Dickson, deputy editor of the FT, says the investment book he most enjoyed reading this year was actually written 35 years ago.
He chose Do You Sincerely Want To Be Rich? Bernard Cornfeld and IOS: an international swindle by Charles Raw, Bruce Page and Godfrey Hodgson (Andre Deutsche; 1971)
Freud in the City PIC by David Freud (Bene Factum Publishing; May 2006) rated as the top choice of Jeremy Tighe, manager of the Foreign & Colonial investment trust. The book is a biographical account by former FT journalist, David Freud, of his work in the City throughout the mid to late 1980s and 1990s.
Hedge Hogging by Barton Biggs (John Wiley & Sons; January 2006).
Our Iceberg is Melting: Changing and Succeeding Under Any Conditions PiC by John Kotter and Holger Rathgeber (Pan; September 2006). This short story uses allegory to illustrate how to cope with change and show change as an opportunity not a threat.
One Up on Wall Street (Simon & Schuster; revised edition August 2000), Peter Lynch
WHAT TO SAY , MARKETS STAGE AN IMPRESSIVE BEGINNINg , valuations ought to be high claim the brokers , hence prices are bidding up. of course, news are good : it is a perfect world . financials up , they are going to cut interest rates, the stage is applauding, and the press reminds us the incoming buzz of M&A. champagne cork popping, the investment professionals are back pouring a small but significant slice of their bonuses on what keeps making them, rich, the markets , a virtuous cycle for mutual growth. or ratehr vicous? the audience applauds ,what a macabre spectacle??
you really don't get it, who is right ....http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3KQjbeQBK0c&refer=home
emerging markets up this year again ? and what about secular trends, they teach you not to follow the sirens and here they go, again , cfo's pulling out of their hat the magic wod, secular trend , it is infrastructure stupid !!!! Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. since 3 years heard about how the hell do you buy it in India?
looks there is a consoloation though : "The Middle East had nine of the 10 worst performing stock markets, imploding after a three-year, 267 percent surge in the Dow Jones DIFC Arabia Titans 50 Index. The Tadawul All-Share Index in Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest market, lost 53 percent, the steepest slide of 81 indexes tracked by Bloomberg" The question is WHY did this happen in the Middle East ???????? Cant u answer?
The miracle of liquidity after a continuous debacle over the past 40 years of the emerging stock markets gives some gloss to the shareholder value or capitalist ideals . u make business also with adrs not only with bribes and monopolies from commodities exports. the true revolution of capital markets is shining over truculent past fascist and comunist dictatorships .
back to serious stuff , very instructive report from cs, finally some pedagogical epistemological quality investment paper without recurring to the finacial metrical rethoric void of any sense employed by the overwhelmingly boring routinary analysts afflicted by a total disenchantment and existential angst early morning when they sit in front of their pc to punch in the data and chart their beautiful pictures , to eventually toss a coin to decide where their stocks are heading.
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_02/06/12/29/F06122900134.pdf
quite interesting given the history of mining industry , its evolution throughout the collapse of the soviet union and its renaissance with the emergence of the chinese claygiant, the chinese golem. the quest for raw amterials mainly driven by demand but also, and we hope so, by a better supply management and stronger consolidation , ie verticalisation. is it the sunset of agast heavy industry path ? quite preoccupying however the environment threat and the high consumption of energy that these colossal operations require. hence , electricity price it's up!!! uranium usage too, suez lyonaise and erw have skyrocketed !!!!!!! and where the hell do we dig in the radioactive waste.
Friday, January 12, 2007
russian stocks valuations
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