china surplus twice bigger than japan !!!

"China’s forecast surplus – an amazing 12 per cent of GDP – is twice as big, relative to GDP, as Japan’s has ever been.....China, in particular, is now exporting a big net contraction, not expansion, in demand to the rest of its world, because its supply is growing far faster than its domestic demand. The difference this year alone is 2.5 per cent of GDP. If US demand slowed substantially and China, Japan and western Europe remained on their present courses, the world economy would surely slow far more than the optimists now hope"

china is not willing to let its currency float freely, the outcome of which would be a stronger yuan and a stronger domestic consumption, the us do rather privilege a weak yuan , the outcome of which is no inflation pressure . given this state of affairs and other factors that may fit well in a game theory , is statu quo and wolf forecast the most plausible scenario? what if some of the assumptions on currency exchange rates change , ie the yuan is not anymore pegged to the usd or the usd appreciates pegged to the yuan , would this bode well for the world economy as a whole , would this represent a better scenario than the current one ? if the current yuan weakness provokes an unusual deflation with a higher global liquidity , is it correct to say that this fuels uncontrolled speculation in all sorts of markets with values going beyond normal levels and causing aberrations like the credit crunch recently ? Can these aberrations be fixed ?

"IMF warns on Eastern Europe

According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, released Wednesday, the economies of Eastern Europe are “vulnerable”. Eastern Europe is the only area singled out in the report as at genuine risk from fluctuations in capital investment. The IMF draws comparisons with the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s. Although most emerging markets today have strong current account positions and big currency reserves, Eastern Europe, warns the IMF, is an exception. “Unlike in other regions…net capital inflows have been accompanied by a deteriorating external position”."

funding in chf and eur