Monday, August 11, 2008

from the nyt blog

August 11th, 2008 8:36 am

Link
Dear Georgia,

It's really great here at the Olympics. My wife and I are having the time of our lives. The spectacle is really something else. We even got a chance during the opening ceremony to chat with some of the other world leaders. Can you believe that? Being President is lots of fun.

I was sorry to hear that you've started a quarrel with my friend, Mr. Putin. And that you've actually used some of the military supplies we sold you, too. Those were only for show in your Independence Day parades, remember? You were taught how to maintain them so that you could keep them bright and shiny for such displays. But now you've gone and gotten some of them wrecked. But don't worry. We can make more for you as soon as you send us an order. With the usual deposit, of course.

Have you forgotten that democracies aren't supposed to start wars? Perhaps you were confused by my doctrine of pre-emptive war and our invasion of Iraq. But those events weren't intended as something that you should do yourself, you know. You're only a little country, not a superpower. There's a huge difference, you know.

Meanwhile, please do write and let me know how things are going. I'll ask our ambassador to the UN to say some nice things in your behalf as soon as I can catch a break in the action here. And how do you like that swimmer of ours? Isn't he great? And our basketball team is absolutely amazing, too.

Regards and best wishes from your friend,

George

— jhannah3, Staten Island
Recommend Recommended by 35 Readers

georgia

clearly by losing the war Georgia will become the winner from a moral point of view . but at what price , the loss of its sovereignty ? a likely outcome since Russia will never allow any Caucasian country to join the nato . the only recalcitrant country to the Russian hegemony in the region , Georgia , was emboldened by the promises of , guess who, GEORGE W Bush, and the sincere believes of his president S. on the ancient bond with the western civilization , dating back to the Argonauts and the spread of the Christian gospel, to lead to a better future. this sincerity without any solid backup may ended up in a monumental mistake : an ally in the terror war loses its sovereignty at the expense of an historical enemy of reedom. By occupying Georgia Russia will dictate its terms in the Caucasus. Chess Mate . In the meantime I hope the president Bush will still enjoy his holydays in Bejing !

PS: By the way , it looks like the majority of posts are pro Russian , are we assisting to a media runoff from the progovernment youth movements , nasi rossie ? if not the nostalgics of the Soviet Union are always very strong in our backyard .

Friday, August 08, 2008

Randy Pausch

"you cannot change the cards you are dealt with , just how you play the hand "
Randy Pausch
http://download.srv.cs.cmu.edu/~pausch/

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Hank Paulson and Frederich the great

From http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amy5j45Oa9Ag&refer=home
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- In 1769, short of funds to rebuild Prussia after attacks by Russia, Sweden and Austria, Frederick the Great let aristocrats, churches and monasteries raise money by pledging their estates as security to investors.

From those beginnings emerged what today is Europe's $3 trillion market for covered bonds -- securities backed by assets such as mortgages as well as the seller's promise to pay. Now U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, faced with carnage in the housing market that led to $480 billion of losses and writedowns at the world's top financial institutions, is using a similar strategy to help America's banks turn assets into cash.

While the European market has grown for 250 years, Paulson's plan confronts obstacles Frederick never faced: Besides competition from the biggest U.S. housing-finance companies, the debt would be tied to mortgages and banks that are sliding in value with America's homes and economy.

.....

European investors have snapped up pfandbriefe, as they are known in Germany, because they're considered almost risk free. No bank has missed a payment on the securities in at least 100 years, according to Germany's Pfandbrief Association. .....

``The covered bond has been a very useful and widely accepted vehicle in Europe, but in the U.S. it remains an expensive financing mechanism versus home-loan banks and it doesn't offer the same capital relief as a true sale,'' said Richard Dorfman, chief executive officer of FHLBank Atlanta, the Georgia Federal Home Loan Bank, which has $150 billion of loans.......

For investors, a pledge this month by 13 banks and securities firms including Bank of America, London-based Barclays Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. of New York to appoint dedicated traders, provide pricing information and make a market in the bonds may be the most important development, said TIAA-Cref's Cerra. The ability to easily trade and value the debt falls short of what's available in Europe, he said.......

Another hurdle is that so-called risk-based capital rules require banks to hold more than twice as much in reserves to issue covered bonds than if they worked with Fannie to create mortgage securities, and kept the bonds on their balance sheets.

Frederick the Great's financing plan worked so well that Denmark followed suit in 1797 after a fire destroyed much of Copenhagen. By 1850, France had joined in. Whether the idea catches on in the U.S. is another question, said Richard Kemmish, head of covered bond origination at Credit Suisse Group in London and member of the European Covered Bond Council's steering committee.

investigation movies or documentaries : two different views

watching a documentary on how the French police works to investigate a criminal case, I was struck by how reality diverges from fiction. in fiction the police officer works for the sake of truth, in reality the agent looks like he is working for the sake of his career , to get promoted by nailing the suspect with all possible means and receive a better pay check and more comfortable position later on. a bit like in a bank or any other institution working with such incentives. there you go, welcome to the world! the line between truth and manipulation is thin , up to the lawyers to defend the accused.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

IHT, Roger Cohen,http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/03/opinion/edcohen.php

Although living In paris i was not aware of this latest scandal , probably erupted while in holydays and glad to learn about it in iht. Totally agree on your conclusions that there is a lesson of civilisation for the vaunted French civilisation afflicted by a continous malaise that binds freedom of speech to political correct statements. Not suprising for the heirs of Versailles!!! But let's be clear , so much ink for such a mediocre personality as Jean Sarkozy was not necessary from neither side , it was a present to the Sarkozy clan that was capable of stirring a " faux debat " on a private issue that should not have gone public. It looks like both quarreling sides are affected by a quest of moral hegemony which eventually does not help the country to get out of its deadlock. Both BH Levy and Bob Siné should ashame themselves of delving into such an affair ,curtailing a true debate of ideas and extolling the peoplisation of the society even among very refined intellectuals quoting Foucault and Dreyfuss , all of this for a young failed student turned politician to reap the dividend of daddy position. helas,to see a cartoonist like siné being fought by a renowned philosopher like bh levi is just a sign of lack of class !

Friday, August 01, 2008

Financial regulation in the wake of subrpime mess

the city claims that

“Proposed changes could greatly increase the cost of capital across Europe with detrimental effects far beyond the financial services industry,” said Stuart Fraser, chairman of policy and resources at the City of London, which will on Friday publish its gloomy forecasts.

EU commission replies with the statement


“When the financial sector is in such a state that losses risk being socialised while profits from risk-taking are privatised, nobody should be surprised if, in the absence of meaningful and comprehensive industry response, there is a regulatory response to address the misaligned incentives that are at the heart of the problems that have arisen.”

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

obama , the script never written

not even Hollywood could come up with a similar scenario, an Africa descendant with above the average skills candidate to the presidency of the most powerful country in the world. it goes beyond the American dream. what does it take now to be elected ? obama is up to the task , is the American public up to the most unconceivable innovation in their history ?

Thursday, July 03, 2008

hedge funds/take ober /cfd

FSA to target covert stake-building

Hedge funds will no longer be able to build secret stakes in companies after the UK’s market regulator announced it would introduce unexpectedly strict rules on the disclosure of derivatives. The FSA said big holdings through contracts for difference - which give investors financial exposure to share price moves but no voting rights - should be disclosed as if they were shares. The move comes after a series of cases in which activist hedge funds and companies planning to bid for rivals have used CFDs to secretly build holdings, and follows the introduction of rules requiring short-sellers to declare bets against the shares of companies involved in rights issues. It goes further than previous proposals to require only minimal disclosure of CFDs.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Michael Lind/texas / Bush

does history matter . no think some bold politicians. yet ,events once again show that history may hint to future developments. 8 yeas ago the vitriolic biography on gw bush highlighted his deleterious policies in his home state, texas. the pension system was squandered by deregulation. on the aftermath of enron debacle , g w bush was elected after a much contested race as president of the united states casting his mediocre skills in the shade after sept 11 . but at the end of his mandate the economy cannot hide anymore the blunt disaster viciously nurtured by a bold and imprudent administration highkacked by lobbyists looting the long term prospects of America. The subprime crisis is the most manifest sign of this total fiasco. Were the certainties that erased the word prudence from their dictionary a recipee for disaster ?

let's go back to the time when g w bush was running texas and the warning signs of an impending disaster were very present then. but demagogy, the art of distorting the attention from the real problems , prevailed . the current disaster is the tangible result for American people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lind

Thursday, June 12, 2008

End of the Mandate

GW Bush touring Europe in his mission to convince Europeans to add more troops for the liberty cause. The guy comes to and end of his rule with the American economy collapsing and the US World leadership in shambles, mocked publicly by autocratic Russia that forgets how much money was poured in and subsequently stolen when their system failed in the mid 90s.

Once again , the question , what makes a man of power a great leader ? his blindness to the risks to wage wars to liberate countries with subsequent deleterious consequences because incapable of managing his policies or, besides the courage, his prudence and wisdom that take into account the real needs of his people and not those of his doctrines ?

A great outcome was the fall of a tyrant, Saddam ,but what lies after him? a country thorn by war , an unnecessary burden . What for ?

subprime risks ahead of us

Banken stehen vor trĂ¼ben Ertragsperspektiven

Die Ratingagentur Fitch hat sich auf einer Konferenz zu internationalen Banken am Montag in Frankfurt skeptisch zu den Branchenperspektiven geäussert. Fitch glaubt, dass zwar weltweit 80% der Wertberichtigungen auf Subprime-bezogene Anlagen berichtet worden sind. Es könne aber Korrekturen auf andere Risikopositionen geben, etwa im Bereich fremdfinanzierter Ăœbernahmen (Leveraged Finance) oder im Konsum- und im Immobiliengeschäft.

Auch wenn es zuletzt Zeichen der Marktstabilisierung gab, ist fĂ¼r Fitch offen, wann es zu einer Normalisierung kommt. Dank der Intervention der Notenbanken ist die Refinanzierung der meisten Institute weiter gut möglich. Jedoch könnten sich die Finanzierungskonditionen verschärfen. Etliche Banken zeigten eine markante Schwäche im Kapitalmarktneugeschäft, das durch die Marktverwerfungen zurĂ¼ckgebunden bleibt. Bestimmend fĂ¼r die nächsten Monate werden gemäss Fitch weniger die Folgen der Subprime-Krise, sondern konjunkturelle Risiken sein. Fitch erwartet durch eine Verschlechterung der Kreditrisiken einen Anstieg der Risikovorsorge und eine Ertragsbelastung.

ErtragsrĂ¼ckgang wiederum erschwere den Instituten die Stärkung der Eigenkapitalbasis aus eigener Kraft. Durch ihre schwache Ausgangslage seien hier BNP Paribas, Barclays und SociĂ©tĂ© GĂ©nĂ©rale besonders risikobehaftet. Im europäischen Vergleich sieht Fitch ein Ă¼berdurchschnittliches Stresspotenzial auf dem britischen, irischen und deutschen Markt, während Italien, Frankreich und Spanien durchschnittlich eingestuft werden. Zu den stabilen Systemen zählt Fitch trotz UBS-Krise die Schweiz.

Why should France , the UK and Ireland be more vulnerable than Italy and Spain , Why is Switzerland the best positionned? Interestingly , the backdrop of globalisation stands out from this huge financial debalce. Globalisation means lower costs, more competition, larger international trade and productivity gains with an overall increase of wealth. however globalisation could not stop the toxic garbage to bespread around the world through the powerof the American financial industry causing great damage to those natually bound to them.

Der deutsche Bankenmarkt ist gemäss Fitch von der Finanzmarktkrise hart getroffen. Die Kapitalausstattung der Grossbanken reiche aber aus, um weitere Wertberichtigungen zu verkraften, sagte Fitch-Bankenanalystin Andrea von Schnurbein. Man mĂ¼sse nun die weitere Entwicklung abwarten. Die - zum Verkauf stehende - Postbank liege mit ihrer Kapitalstärke am unteren Ende der Bandbreite dessen, was angemessen ist, indes sei das Risikoprofil geringer. Ihre Kollegin Simone Brehmer unterstrich, dass die Kreditrisikovorsorge deutscher Häuser im ersten Vierteljahr auf historisch sehr niedrigem Niveau gelegen hat. Hier erwartet sie mittelfristig einen Anstieg. Kritisch merkte sie die teilweise noch hohen Positionen in risikobehafteten Papieren per Ende März an (vgl. Tabelle). Die riskantesten Positionen seien aber zum Grossteil bereits wertberichtigt worden. Aus der möglichen Marktkonsolidierung (vgl. FuW Nr. 37 vom 10. Mai) in Deutschland erwartet Fitch keine Ratingauswirkungen. «Fusionen zwischen öffentlich-rechtlichen und privatrechtlichen Instituten wird es in Deutschland auch in zehn Jahren noch nicht geben», sagte Fitch-Deutschland-Chef Jens Schmidt-BĂ¼rgel. Nur dies wĂ¼rde aber den Bankenplatz nachhaltig stärken.

DM, Frankfurt

An example of take over strategy by issuing shares/ VON Roll and Finck family

Von Stahl zu von Finck

Einst war Von Roll als Stahlunternehmen ein Begriff. 1996 wurde der Stahlbereich mit von Moos zu Swiss Steel fusioniert. Die restliche Von Roll agierte unglĂ¼cklich und stand 2003 nahe am Konkurs. Nach einer umfassenden Restrukturierung besteht die Gesellschaft nun mehrheitlich aus Geschäften der ehemaligen Isola-Werke, die 1987 aus GrĂ¼nden der Diversifikation gekauft wurden. Von Roll ist heute spezialisiert auf die Produktion von Isolationsbändern, Kupferdrähten, Harzen sowie Lacken fĂ¼r Generatoren und Motoren. Im Angebot sind auch Verbundstoffe fĂ¼r verschiedene industrielle Anwendungen.

An der Spitze der Gesellschaft kam es Mitte 2007 zu einem Machtwechsel. Die deutsche Milliardärsfamilie um August von Finck erhöhte die Beteiligung an Von Roll von 21 auf 31,6%. Ziel dieser Aktion war es, an einer ausserordentlichen Generalversammlung eine Kapitalerhöhung um 323 Mio. Fr. durchzubringen und die Mehrheit im Verwaltungsrat zu erreichen. Beides gelang (vgl. FuW Nr. 63 vom 15. August 2007). Als Verwaltungsratspräsident und CEO Ă¼bernahm Thomas Limberger die Verantwortung - Limberger war zuvor CEO von OC Oerlikon.

Die aufgelegte Kapitalerhöhung wurde von den Aktionären nicht voll gezeichnet. Von Finck sprang in die LĂ¼cke, Ă¼berschritt damit die Marke von einem Drittel des Kapitals und musste in der Folge den anderen Aktionären ein Ăœbernahmeangebot unterbreiten. Obwohl die Offerte absichtlich niedrig tief angesetzt war, wurden dem Grossaktionär fast 30% des restlichen Kapitals angedient. Dadurch erhöhte sich die Beteiligung der Familie von Finck auf beachtliche 63,1%.

DH

Thursday, June 05, 2008

hedge for dummies

http://www.amazon.com/Hedge-Dummies-Business-Personal-Finance/dp/0470049278

Monday, June 02, 2008

quo vadis Helvetia ?

more racist than whom in club of civilised nations ? what a shame every year on a regular basis the referendum weapon is deployed to humiliate people more swiss than us.black hands grabbing a Swiss passport displayed in a banner hung all over Switzerland while Americans appoint the first black running candidate to the white house. a relief that the Swiss voters rejected this hateful proposal . but for how long will the far right party of herr blocher recurr to this fighting instrument to stirr controversy and division among Swiss themselves?

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/01/europe/EU-GEN-Switzerland-Citizenship-Referendum.php

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