soft precious and industrial commodities
global warming , soft comm up, buy farmland in brazil/argentina very inexpensive in a world of inflated asset prices.
yen and asian currenciues undervalued. asian/ russian real estate
go long yen through call options . check singapore stock market real estate and stocks. thai market lower if foreigners out, wait couple of months.
2007 volatility would go up substantially.
In the meantime , rates scare , the fed does not cut ! oil dips down , nickel too, pharma and telecom are resilient . in china impressive utilities. dollar is up, short time ?
Amazing story , gas trader , 32 years old , usd 3 bio aum, 150% performance 06.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/69b7daf0-9c26-11db-9c9b-0000779e2340.htmlUpdate 2
or warnnats on the emrging markets linked to gdp growth paying off stellar retirns, see rgentina and bosnia.
Historsy of stock markets
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ef2bc4c2-91b7-11db-a945-0000779e2340.html
History repeats itself.....a bit too simple according to
Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms PIC by Russell Napier (CLSA Books; December 2005) as the best investment-related read of the year.
Martin Dickson, deputy editor of the FT, says the investment book he most enjoyed reading this year was actually written 35 years ago.
He chose Do You Sincerely Want To Be Rich? Bernard Cornfeld and IOS: an international swindle by Charles Raw, Bruce Page and Godfrey Hodgson (Andre Deutsche; 1971)
Freud in the City PIC by David Freud (Bene Factum Publishing; May 2006) rated as the top choice of Jeremy Tighe, manager of the Foreign & Colonial investment trust. The book is a biographical account by former FT journalist, David Freud, of his work in the City throughout the mid to late 1980s and 1990s.
Hedge Hogging by Barton Biggs (John Wiley & Sons; January 2006).
Our Iceberg is Melting: Changing and Succeeding Under Any Conditions PiC by John Kotter and Holger Rathgeber (Pan; September 2006). This short story uses allegory to illustrate how to cope with change and show change as an opportunity not a threat.
One Up on Wall Street (Simon & Schuster; revised edition August 2000), Peter Lynch
WHAT TO SAY , MARKETS STAGE AN IMPRESSIVE BEGINNINg , valuations ought to be high claim the brokers , hence prices are bidding up. of course, news are good : it is a perfect world . financials up , they are going to cut interest rates, the stage is applauding, and the press reminds us the incoming buzz of M&A. champagne cork popping, the investment professionals are back pouring a small but significant slice of their bonuses on what keeps making them, rich, the markets , a virtuous cycle for mutual growth. or ratehr vicous? the audience applauds ,what a macabre spectacle??
you really don't get it, who is right ....http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a3KQjbeQBK0c&refer=home
emerging markets up this year again ? and what about secular trends, they teach you not to follow the sirens and here they go, again , cfo's pulling out of their hat the magic wod, secular trend , it is infrastructure stupid !!!! Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. since 3 years heard about how the hell do you buy it in India?
looks there is a consoloation though : "The Middle East had nine of the 10 worst performing stock markets, imploding after a three-year, 267 percent surge in the Dow Jones DIFC Arabia Titans 50 Index. The Tadawul All-Share Index in Saudi Arabia, the region's biggest market, lost 53 percent, the steepest slide of 81 indexes tracked by Bloomberg" The question is WHY did this happen in the Middle East ???????? Cant u answer?
The miracle of liquidity after a continuous debacle over the past 40 years of the emerging stock markets gives some gloss to the shareholder value or capitalist ideals . u make business also with adrs not only with bribes and monopolies from commodities exports. the true revolution of capital markets is shining over truculent past fascist and comunist dictatorships .
back to serious stuff , very instructive report from cs, finally some pedagogical epistemological quality investment paper without recurring to the finacial metrical rethoric void of any sense employed by the overwhelmingly boring routinary analysts afflicted by a total disenchantment and existential angst early morning when they sit in front of their pc to punch in the data and chart their beautiful pictures , to eventually toss a coin to decide where their stocks are heading.
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_02/06/12/29/F06122900134.pdf
quite interesting given the history of mining industry , its evolution throughout the collapse of the soviet union and its renaissance with the emergence of the chinese claygiant, the chinese golem. the quest for raw amterials mainly driven by demand but also, and we hope so, by a better supply management and stronger consolidation , ie verticalisation. is it the sunset of agast heavy industry path ? quite preoccupying however the environment threat and the high consumption of energy that these colossal operations require. hence , electricity price it's up!!! uranium usage too, suez lyonaise and erw have skyrocketed !!!!!!! and where the hell do we dig in the radioactive waste.
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