Für 2007 hat Sarasin drei neue thematische Ideen ausgemacht, die die globale Aktienauswahl beeinflussen könnten: Impact of Weather, Disruptive Technologies sowie Political & Legislative Change.
nikko, drop
shanghai electric , electrical equipment , china
is us real estate slowdown over ?
ubs target on cs 97!!
zodiac, french company
usa top picks : dell?? t 31 , csc ( turnaround story), louisiana pacific ( building material ), comstock ( crk) gaz oil infrastructure,nuance comunications ( nms), gilead ( GILD,biotech), cameco ( uran, gold,ccJ), QUALCOMM( QCOM), BROADCOM ( BRCM)
market still directionless , testing the highest before a correction to give more room for investors to buy ?
article FT : clean energy brazil, investment fund , ethanol
lower india and china , cisco ? uptrend in fibre optics?
swissre !!!!!!
it's christamss for abb , big order from middle east pumps up the stock prcie hitting 21.5. similarly ge and westing house .
taiwan
cosan, sugar
ubs ? abn amro , cheap stock
eg laufenburg fuw 16.12.06
zueblin , real estate
eni
short usd
mechel underperformed vs steel sectgor . salzgitter , swiss steel outperformeers, see technology
intel undeprforming , novartis as well .
technology sector the big loser of the past 3 years
meyer burger , solar technology
http://www.finanzinfo.ch/archiv/artikel_display/artikel_display-de.asp
check india , rates up, market down ?
switch india brazil
ing 20 call march 34 / ing 20 put june 34
idem swissre
nomura
raetia, expensive , eg laufenburg, atel
commodities , jim roger, buy agriculture?
what i moissed , once gain.... swiss small caps !!!!! sika, sulzer, winterthur, can't believe it !!!!!!!
indipendent fund managers
http://www.finanzinfo.ch/archiv/artikel_display/artikel_display-de.asp
vietnam funds
http://www.finanzinfo.ch/archiv/artikel_display/artikel_display-de.asp
metso, finnish machine group
http://www.finanzinfo.ch/archiv/artikel_display/artikel_display-de.asp
AMCFM Global Opportunities Fund (Valoren-Nr. 2141059), ein global ausgerichteter Fonds mit einem ausgeprägten Fokus auf Vietnam. Er unterscheidet sich von anderen globalen Fonds, die Vietnam nicht oder nur minimal berücksichtigen. Das Fondsmanagement beabsichtigt, den Vietnam-Anteil weiter auszubauen. Der Nettovermögenswert wird wöchentlich ermittelt. Somit besitzt er nicht die Problematik einer nur monatlichen Berechnung und weist als offener Fonds auch keine Prämie auf zum NAV auf.
Punkto Handelbarkeit erreichen der Vietnam Enterprise Investments, der Vietnam Growth und der Vietnam Opportunities (vgl. Tabelle) verhältnismässig gute Volumen. Weniger liquide sind der PXP Vietnam und der Vietnam Dragon, wobei der Vietnam Dragon vor allem auf japanische Investoren ausgerichtet ist.
interesting fof from pentium fund , vincente zaragoza
see http://www.derivativesstrategy.com/magazine/archive/2000/0500fea3.asp
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vjuuRhgFN4P4.asf
nick nelson , emerging growth , russian consumers , see european banks linked to russia
brazil investments
localiza, car rental agency
all, railways
santos , port
see analyst emerson leite, roberto attuch
bovespa 49000
itau- bank-itau4-t: $46.4
itsa4-bank-t:
cemig t 64
ambev T $600
petrobras T $33.5
cosan T $28.2
mexico
urbi, geo
Friday, December 01, 2006
Monday, November 20, 2006
November 06 comments
30.11.06
-private banks performance : Seit Januar misst und vergleicht der FTSE Private Banking Index die in Kundenportfolios erzielte Rendite. Der Index wird von den teilnehmenden Banken vor allem als Konkurrenzvergleich genutzt
-adobe
-nomura up 3% FROM ITS BOTTOM, FINANCIALS AGAIN ON THE RADAR SCREEN
-MECHEL GOOD RESULTS
-AUD UP 0.786
28.11.06.
swiss market , overweight telecoms and households. swisscom , voegele and valora . switch into usd equity ?
see chinese cement sector , consolidation, market share expansion, similar story to india in 90s. favortie stock: anhui conch,tp hkd 30
UFJ, tp JPY200000
27.11.06
georg fischer , dbank chf 800
uk, credit defaults fear , expect rates rise
novartis results 28.11.06
china unicome, mobile operator
china telecom , upgarded by c.n to hkd 4.5
newron , when is the ipo taking place ?
zueblin, high dividend, 50cts =4.6%, stock price below its book value.
swissfirst, serious problems, big speculative buy
-etwa Doosan Heavy, Hyflux, NWS Holdings und Organo ( china environment stocks)
Verordnung zum neuen Kollektivanlagengeset-Neue Impulse fUr Fondsplatz ( see article , new swiss law on funds , min invest 2mio but how many investors?
comments : everybody positive , growth is on, except for usd falling given a disocunted cut in i rates. this ahs caused a shock. let's see what is next. yet there are some bulls on usd since eur growth is fake . the scenario of late 20th c. ealy 21st c. is ruled out, where rates loom over 6% , hence no hard landing expected. ......28.11.06 but what if the hard landing is caused by a sharp drop in the usd ???? provoking inflation and forcing the central bank to tigthen rates ..... how long would such scenario take ?
favorites in ch : holcim, swissre
-on china :
Die staatliche Umweltschutzbehörde bestätigte diese Woche, dass sich die Umweltsituation in China in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres weiter verschlechtert hat. Die boomende Wirtschaft hat zu einer Erhöhung des Schwefeldioxidausstosses geführt. Regionalregierungen messen dem Umweltschutz jedoch keine besondere Bedeutung zu und richten statt dessen ihre Politik auf Wirtschaftswachstum aus. Die Luft ist in rund 20% der chinesischen Grossstädte ernsthaft verschmutzt. In Peking hat die Luftverunreinigung ein neues Rekordniveau erreicht. Auch die Wassersituation bleibt wegen Knappheit und starker Verschmutzung Besorgnis erregend. Mit Blick auf die olympischen Spiele muss die Regierung nun rigide Massnahmen einführen und weitreichende Investitionen beschliessen. Nur so kann sie verhindern, dass die Umweltsituation zur grossen Blamage wird. Eine Reihe asiatischer Titel sollten von diesen Investitionen profitieren. Dazu zählen etwa Doosan Heavy, Hyflux, NWS Holdings und Organo.HSBC Guyerzeller Bank
-on real estate investments: Für mich ist die Prämie oder der Discount nur eine Richtgrösse, um einen Überblick zu bekommen, wie eine Gesellschaft positioniert ist. Zur Bewertung müssen die aus dem operativen Geschäft berechneten Kennzahlen herangezogen werden. Aber selbst da darf man sich nicht blenden lassen. Wenn Züblin eine operative Eigenkapitalrendite auf Jahresbasis von 8,2% ausweist, dann steht dem die Eigenkapitalquote von 26% gegenüber. Als konservativer Immobilienanleger wäre mir eine Warteck Invest mit nur 5,5% Eigenkapitalrendite, aber 60% Eigenkapital lieber.
-backwardation , cotango in commodities , see spreads btw short and long curve to be exploited by selling long end and buying short end curve in the backwardation configuration, thus enhancing a profit.
-commodity indices will likely show disparate trends in the coming year as well. We therefore continue
to recommend that investors reduce their positions in commodity indices and concentrate more on specific commodity investments or individual commodity classes.
we are maintaining our medium-term outlook for base metals ( lead , zinc , copper) since the price correction in recent days was indeed likely attributable primarily to profit-taking, and the inventory
levels of most metals are still extremely tight.Although the cooldown in global economic growth continues to pose a risk factor for industrial metals, the extremely tight inventories and resulting limited availability should prevent any declines in prices of 20% and more from the current levels. Historically, base metals prices have always reacted strongly to any slowdowns in economic growth. Accordingly, we have seen a significant deceleration in growth in metals prices in recent continue to weaken until such time that the expected reacceleration of global economic growth emerges in the spring of 2007. In light of the tight inventory levels, however, we do not anticipate any negative growth in prices, but rather expect to see a consolidation. Nevertheless, additional risks still loom over the copper
market in the near term. Copper prices have turned in an underperformance versus other base metals in past weeks. The poor trend in prices is attributable mainly to the fact that copper stocks have risen substantially recently – surging by roughly 25% just since the beginning of September – due to sales executed by China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB). Although the amount of registered copper inventories still covers merely a few days of worldwide demand, the surge has weighed on the trend in prices. Market sentiment toward the copper sector also remains dampened. Speculative net short positions held in the copper market have, accordingly, hit new record highs in recent weeks. So copper prices should rather remain under pressure for some time to come. However, we believe that copper prices will reap rewards again just as soon as China’s State Reserve Bureau concludes it sales activities
and global economic growth re-accelerates in the spring of 2007.
22.11.06
smi at 9200 in 2007
fuw : tecan, newron
see artcile fuw brazil,latam
Mexico....Bauunternehmens ICA sowie Urbi und Ara. Merrill Lynch hat die Aktienempfehlung für Ara vor kurzem von «Neutral» auf «Kaufen» erhöht, weil es sich um das «attraktivste Bauunternehmen Lateinamerikas» handle.
Reit/Deutschland
Für den Finanzplatz Deutschland sind Reit auch deshalb wichtig, weil sie in mehreren europäischen Staaten längst Einzug gehalten haben und 2007 auch in Grossbritannien eingeführt werden. Am deutschen Aktienmarkt wird es zu einer Belebung kommen: Gemäss dem Gesetzentwurf ist für Reit eine Börsennotiz vorgeschrieben, spätestens drei Jahre nach Gründung oder Umwandlung. In den Aktienkursen der bestehenden Immobiliengesellschaften ist aber bereits viel Fantasie vorweggenommen......
Die Einführung von Real Estate Investment Trusts (Reit) in Deutschland und Grossbritannien per 2007 bestätigen einen weltweiten Trend: Immobilienbestände an die Börse bringen und handelbar machen..... Gemäss der Fondsgesellschaft Fidelity sind derzeit nur 8% der Gewerbeimmobilien über Aktiengesellschaften handelbar, der Rest liegt in privaten Händen. Fidelity-Fondsmanager Steven Buller erklärte in einem deutschen Branchenmagazin, das Verhältnis verschiebe sich nun, da mehr und mehr Immobilien aus dem Bestand von Privatpersonen, Unternehmen und Obligationenfonds in Reit überführt würden. Die Einführung von Reit.....Deutsche Immobilienaktien haben viel Reit-Fantasie bereits vorweggenommen. Als Investor aus der Schweiz gibt es – auch wegen des Währungsrisikos – keinen Grund, jetzt auf den deutschen Reit-Trend aufzuspringen, zumal es attraktive Möglichkeiten im Inland gibt. Dazu zählen Züblin (die an der Reit-Entwicklung in Deutschland partizipieren wird), falls das Unternehmen mit seinem für diese Woche angekündigten Zwischenbericht nicht enttäuscht.BA
taiwan / asia / cs
2409 tt au optronics
2891 tt china trust financial
2330 tt tsmt
-private banks performance : Seit Januar misst und vergleicht der FTSE Private Banking Index die in Kundenportfolios erzielte Rendite. Der Index wird von den teilnehmenden Banken vor allem als Konkurrenzvergleich genutzt
-adobe
-nomura up 3% FROM ITS BOTTOM, FINANCIALS AGAIN ON THE RADAR SCREEN
-MECHEL GOOD RESULTS
-AUD UP 0.786
28.11.06.
swiss market , overweight telecoms and households. swisscom , voegele and valora . switch into usd equity ?
see chinese cement sector , consolidation, market share expansion, similar story to india in 90s. favortie stock: anhui conch,tp hkd 30
UFJ, tp JPY200000
27.11.06
georg fischer , dbank chf 800
uk, credit defaults fear , expect rates rise
novartis results 28.11.06
china unicome, mobile operator
china telecom , upgarded by c.n to hkd 4.5
newron , when is the ipo taking place ?
zueblin, high dividend, 50cts =4.6%, stock price below its book value.
swissfirst, serious problems, big speculative buy
-etwa Doosan Heavy, Hyflux, NWS Holdings und Organo ( china environment stocks)
Verordnung zum neuen Kollektivanlagengeset-Neue Impulse fUr Fondsplatz ( see article , new swiss law on funds , min invest 2mio but how many investors?
comments : everybody positive , growth is on, except for usd falling given a disocunted cut in i rates. this ahs caused a shock. let's see what is next. yet there are some bulls on usd since eur growth is fake . the scenario of late 20th c. ealy 21st c. is ruled out, where rates loom over 6% , hence no hard landing expected. ......28.11.06 but what if the hard landing is caused by a sharp drop in the usd ???? provoking inflation and forcing the central bank to tigthen rates ..... how long would such scenario take ?
favorites in ch : holcim, swissre
-on china :
Die staatliche Umweltschutzbehörde bestätigte diese Woche, dass sich die Umweltsituation in China in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres weiter verschlechtert hat. Die boomende Wirtschaft hat zu einer Erhöhung des Schwefeldioxidausstosses geführt. Regionalregierungen messen dem Umweltschutz jedoch keine besondere Bedeutung zu und richten statt dessen ihre Politik auf Wirtschaftswachstum aus. Die Luft ist in rund 20% der chinesischen Grossstädte ernsthaft verschmutzt. In Peking hat die Luftverunreinigung ein neues Rekordniveau erreicht. Auch die Wassersituation bleibt wegen Knappheit und starker Verschmutzung Besorgnis erregend. Mit Blick auf die olympischen Spiele muss die Regierung nun rigide Massnahmen einführen und weitreichende Investitionen beschliessen. Nur so kann sie verhindern, dass die Umweltsituation zur grossen Blamage wird. Eine Reihe asiatischer Titel sollten von diesen Investitionen profitieren. Dazu zählen etwa Doosan Heavy, Hyflux, NWS Holdings und Organo.HSBC Guyerzeller Bank
-on real estate investments: Für mich ist die Prämie oder der Discount nur eine Richtgrösse, um einen Überblick zu bekommen, wie eine Gesellschaft positioniert ist. Zur Bewertung müssen die aus dem operativen Geschäft berechneten Kennzahlen herangezogen werden. Aber selbst da darf man sich nicht blenden lassen. Wenn Züblin eine operative Eigenkapitalrendite auf Jahresbasis von 8,2% ausweist, dann steht dem die Eigenkapitalquote von 26% gegenüber. Als konservativer Immobilienanleger wäre mir eine Warteck Invest mit nur 5,5% Eigenkapitalrendite, aber 60% Eigenkapital lieber.
-backwardation , cotango in commodities , see spreads btw short and long curve to be exploited by selling long end and buying short end curve in the backwardation configuration, thus enhancing a profit.
-commodity indices will likely show disparate trends in the coming year as well. We therefore continue
to recommend that investors reduce their positions in commodity indices and concentrate more on specific commodity investments or individual commodity classes.
we are maintaining our medium-term outlook for base metals ( lead , zinc , copper) since the price correction in recent days was indeed likely attributable primarily to profit-taking, and the inventory
levels of most metals are still extremely tight.Although the cooldown in global economic growth continues to pose a risk factor for industrial metals, the extremely tight inventories and resulting limited availability should prevent any declines in prices of 20% and more from the current levels. Historically, base metals prices have always reacted strongly to any slowdowns in economic growth. Accordingly, we have seen a significant deceleration in growth in metals prices in recent continue to weaken until such time that the expected reacceleration of global economic growth emerges in the spring of 2007. In light of the tight inventory levels, however, we do not anticipate any negative growth in prices, but rather expect to see a consolidation. Nevertheless, additional risks still loom over the copper
market in the near term. Copper prices have turned in an underperformance versus other base metals in past weeks. The poor trend in prices is attributable mainly to the fact that copper stocks have risen substantially recently – surging by roughly 25% just since the beginning of September – due to sales executed by China’s State Reserve Bureau (SRB). Although the amount of registered copper inventories still covers merely a few days of worldwide demand, the surge has weighed on the trend in prices. Market sentiment toward the copper sector also remains dampened. Speculative net short positions held in the copper market have, accordingly, hit new record highs in recent weeks. So copper prices should rather remain under pressure for some time to come. However, we believe that copper prices will reap rewards again just as soon as China’s State Reserve Bureau concludes it sales activities
and global economic growth re-accelerates in the spring of 2007.
22.11.06
smi at 9200 in 2007
fuw : tecan, newron
see artcile fuw brazil,latam
Mexico....Bauunternehmens ICA sowie Urbi und Ara. Merrill Lynch hat die Aktienempfehlung für Ara vor kurzem von «Neutral» auf «Kaufen» erhöht, weil es sich um das «attraktivste Bauunternehmen Lateinamerikas» handle.
Reit/Deutschland
Für den Finanzplatz Deutschland sind Reit auch deshalb wichtig, weil sie in mehreren europäischen Staaten längst Einzug gehalten haben und 2007 auch in Grossbritannien eingeführt werden. Am deutschen Aktienmarkt wird es zu einer Belebung kommen: Gemäss dem Gesetzentwurf ist für Reit eine Börsennotiz vorgeschrieben, spätestens drei Jahre nach Gründung oder Umwandlung. In den Aktienkursen der bestehenden Immobiliengesellschaften ist aber bereits viel Fantasie vorweggenommen......
Die Einführung von Real Estate Investment Trusts (Reit) in Deutschland und Grossbritannien per 2007 bestätigen einen weltweiten Trend: Immobilienbestände an die Börse bringen und handelbar machen..... Gemäss der Fondsgesellschaft Fidelity sind derzeit nur 8% der Gewerbeimmobilien über Aktiengesellschaften handelbar, der Rest liegt in privaten Händen. Fidelity-Fondsmanager Steven Buller erklärte in einem deutschen Branchenmagazin, das Verhältnis verschiebe sich nun, da mehr und mehr Immobilien aus dem Bestand von Privatpersonen, Unternehmen und Obligationenfonds in Reit überführt würden. Die Einführung von Reit.....Deutsche Immobilienaktien haben viel Reit-Fantasie bereits vorweggenommen. Als Investor aus der Schweiz gibt es – auch wegen des Währungsrisikos – keinen Grund, jetzt auf den deutschen Reit-Trend aufzuspringen, zumal es attraktive Möglichkeiten im Inland gibt. Dazu zählen Züblin (die an der Reit-Entwicklung in Deutschland partizipieren wird), falls das Unternehmen mit seinem für diese Woche angekündigten Zwischenbericht nicht enttäuscht.BA
taiwan / asia / cs
2409 tt au optronics
2891 tt china trust financial
2330 tt tsmt
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Monday, October 30, 2006
commodities weekly + china
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_05/06/10/30/F06103000290.pdf
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_01/06/10/27/F06102700072.pdf
see shanghai electric
2727 hk
http://research-and-analytics.csfb.com/secure/control/controlLoop.asp?type=getQckSearchResult&qckSearchKeywords=2727.hk&CSFBDateRange=last6Months&qckSearchType=ticker
china life
2628 hk
chin's renewable energy sector
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_01/06/10/27/F06102700072.pdf
see shanghai electric
2727 hk
http://research-and-analytics.csfb.com/secure/control/controlLoop.asp?type=getQckSearchResult&qckSearchKeywords=2727.hk&CSFBDateRange=last6Months&qckSearchType=ticker
china life
2628 hk
chin's renewable energy sector
Thursday, October 26, 2006
investors view
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6b978dd4-644a-11db-ab21-0000779e2340.html
Published: October 25 2006 18:13 | Last updated: October 25 2006 22:50
The Short View: On the Fed and oil
Published: October 25 2006 18:13 | Last updated: October 25 2006 22:50
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
base metals
oil above 61
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/21886a02-64da-11db-90fd-0000779e2340.html
base metals super cycle
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f2ec0f16-637e-11db-bc82-0000779e2340.html
bhp
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/98999a6c-634f-11db-bc82-0000779e2340.html
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1112115842.php
http://www.forbes.com/2004/01/21/cz_ch_0121sf.html
Kazakhmys
http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-quotechartnews.asp?FTSite=FTCOM&q=KAZ&searchtype&expanded=&countrycode=uk&s2=uk&symb=KAZ&company=NEW
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/21886a02-64da-11db-90fd-0000779e2340.html
base metals super cycle
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f2ec0f16-637e-11db-bc82-0000779e2340.html
bhp
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/98999a6c-634f-11db-bc82-0000779e2340.html
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1112115842.php
http://www.forbes.com/2004/01/21/cz_ch_0121sf.html
Kazakhmys
http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-quotechartnews.asp?FTSite=FTCOM&q=KAZ&searchtype&expanded=&countrycode=uk&s2=uk&symb=KAZ&company=NEW
swiss equities
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_05/06/10/24/F06102400085.pdf
relative strength dimisnishing , outperformance markets coming to an end ?
relative strength dimisnishing , outperformance markets coming to an end ?
Friday, October 20, 2006
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Investment Strategy + Genzyme
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_07/06/10/17/F06101700347.pdf
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_01/06/10/18/F06101800126.pdf
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_01/06/10/18/F06101800126.pdf
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
SIBACADEMBANK...
We continue to like the Sibacadembank story. They announced their
intention to raise $2bn between now and the end of 2007 - this will
come from Eurobonds, syndicated loans, and rouble bonds. We feel this
will actually help pull spreads tighter as bonds currently trade wide
due to lack of investor awareness, a condition which will change as
the
bank grows and supply comes on board.
SIBAC 9.00 '09....101-101 1/2 5X5 8.55- 8.33
SIBAC 12.00 '11...104-104 7/8 5X5 (lowertier2) 10.96-10.74
Sibacadembank, the largest bank in Siberia, is merging with UralVTB,
the
largest bank in the Urals. Upon completion of the merger, which has
been approved by shareholders of both banks and is expected to close by
yearend 2006, the combined bank is expected to have the following
profile:
- the name will be changed to Ursa Bank
- expected yearend 2006 assets of $3.5bn
- EBRD will maintain a blocking stake in the bank (25% + 1 share)
- The bank would rank nationally in:
- top 20 by asset size
- top 10 by size of retail loan portfolio
- top 5 by number of branches
By Eric Jayaweera
Friday, September 29, 2006
us euqity weekly+ techno
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_05/06/09/28/F06092800084.pdf
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_01/06/09/29/F06092900366.pdf
https://investor-circle.credit-suisse.ch/csfs/research/m/s/pdf/area_01/06/09/29/F06092900366.pdf
Sunday, January 08, 2006
modus.01.06
7.08.06
south african rand, rates 8%, sunw upgrade by UBS, gold and uran on demand , cimsa turkey , infrastructure ( komatsu,abb,united technologies, vinci, atlas copco
3.08.06
china, rates up, renimbi up USD=7,60?, stock market down ? recommended china telecom, china medical + shandong weiGAO( cmed.qq,8t99.hix), Solar Power
LATIN AMERica, AGRARIAN COmpanies , cresud ( g. soros), brasilagio, cosan
Agriculture dealers, Daniesl Midland (ADM),
Celluloid , ARACRUZ
Cat Bonds
Forex Fund ??
1.08.06
south african rand , appreciation??? bonds ??
sell knock ins options ???
csfb : banks overweihght ( see italy, japan, thailand)
28.07.06
brazil , best among lamerica , target bovespa 48000, see mining, oil , aerospace
26.07.06
osiris , ipo, 31 july,
metals , go long, see rogers 2018
dna ??? research ?
amd/ intc
basket alternative energies abn amro
royal dutch, news, chart . breaking resistance ?
India, what'sup, rates up , currency risk, see csfb
dna; amercian pharma .
usd weakness ?
go long abb
1.07.06
fed tightens : 5.25 , is it the end ? soon company figures july august. try invest garanti bank or bonds
€26.06.06
emerging currencies under pressure , aprticularly see try and huf, ie those with large account deficts . the question is , for how long and why the USD does not depreciate at the same extent ?
equity markets consolidating , recovering some losses but the game is open and the trend a question mark . will the good company results come to the rescue of the indices propping up the world economy with an injection of optimism or will the inflationary fear coupled with a usd currency crisis tak over ?
in switzerland , roche is doing very well , good news from their pipeline
RECOMMENDED COMPANIES : RIETER , SAURER ( see textile machines)
22.06.06
21.06.06
An Japan festhalten,
abb , gold, turkey
20.06.06
gold and silver under pressure . olar shares.
check article
FuW-Serie: Ein hoher Ölpreis kennt viele Gewinner
Solarenergie
4.06.06
big correction occurred , usd weakness, inflation ? , emerging markets retreating, hedge funds active on the dipping markets. what's next ? gold ? alternative enrgies , hedging ? soem companies on alternativbe energies
Energiekontor,Vestas Wind Systems, Renewable Energy ,Conergy,Plambeck , Gamesa ( spain)
FuW-Serie: Ein hoher Ölpreis kennt viele Gewinner
Windkraftwerke
Hohe Renditechancen mit geringen Kursavancen
$turkish banks
Turkiye Vakiflar, eine türkische Bank mit einem grossen Potenzial im Wachstumsmarkt Türkei.
strategy : close put RUK
CHECK TURKEY BANK, EXIT STRATEGY TRY
ACCUMULATE GOLD
9.05.05
swithcv rog+novn in glaxo +astra zeneca
etf south africa
newmont ?
gold higher = real interest rates lower , target usd 850 log term( ML)
8.05.06
blogs
http://www.phatinvestor.com/
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/06/markets/financial_blogs/index.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/
3.4.06
swiss re
russia revaluation, consumer stocks. WMD, PYATCHE, BALTIKA,LYABE,LEBEDIANSKI
STEEL SECTOR, UTILITIES:BELDODERONERGO
1.4.06
Blom Bank
CVRD Mining
real estate Japan, Nomura
new zeland and iceland ( 7,2% and 11%)
Pyatch Sp GDR Reg-S (FIVE)
check paper
check evraz russia
31.03.06
check GE call
27.03.06
check insurance
26.03.06
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9742
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9799
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9789
deutsche telecom , dividend 5%
sunw, orcl ?
Consolidation ?abhängig. Ist er chancen-risiko-orientiert, wird er nicht zur gleichen Konklusion kommen wie einer, der grundlegend in Aktien investiert sein will. Vorstellbar ist, dass die kommenden Wochen kurzfristig noch höhere Kurse bringen. Darüber hinaus sehen wir Euro Stoxx und SMI aber in eine längere Konsolidierung einmünden, die auf Sicht einiger Wochen auch die Konturen einer kräftigeren Korrektur annehmen kann: alles eine Frage des Timings.Roland Vogt
Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsui Fudosan und Sumitomo Realty legten 2 bis 3% ....
«Nachdem der indonesische Präsident Yudohoyono im letzten Jahr die immensen Ölsubventionen gestrichen hatte, stieg die Inflation rasant auf 17%, weshalb die Zinsen massiv angehoben wurden. Der erwartete Einbruch des Privatkonsums wurde durch Direktzahlungen an einkommensschwache Familien abgefedert. Zusammen mit der robusten Exportnachfrage und der soliden Agrarproduktion half dies, die Konjunktur zu stabilisieren.....Eine konjunkturelle Beschleunigung sowie graduell sinkende Zinsen unterstützen unserer Meinung nach den Banken- und den Konsumsektor. Trotz des jüngsten Preisanstiegs favorisieren wir Matahari Putra Prima (Detailhandel) und Bank Rakyat.»
22.03.06
real estate funds in europe
middle east underwent correction
21.03.06
philippines, investment
18.03.06
gold price and china reserves deemed to increase
genentech
16.03.06
usd stable at 1.30
newyork governor :
low interest rates = chinese savings purchasing US T and not high productivity with low inflation. other forms of inflation such as rela estate prices .
20.02.06
werner merzbacher, samler und anleger
new mont mining, what's up?
Japan , down, real estate ?Komatsu ?
Real estate investment trusts (Reits) an Popularität gewonnen. Diese Aktiengesellschaften unterhalten ein Portfolio von Liegenschaften und schütten den Ertrag aus Verkauf und Miete als Dividende aus. Die meisten Reits investieren in gewerbliche Liegenschaften: Sie versprechen höhere Renditen, zumal der Bevölkerungsschwund die Nachfrage nach Wohnbauten schmälert.Vergangenes Jahr hat sich die Zahl der kotierten Reits auf 28 verdoppelt. Der Reit-Index an der Tokioter Börse notierte vergangene Woche auf einem Allzeithoch von 1703. Marktbeobachter warnen aber vor einer neuerlichen Blase im Immobiliensektor. Die um lukrative Liegenschaften buhlenden Reits heizen die Immobilienpreise an. Nicht im gleichen Ausmass mitgezogen haben die Mieteinnahmen. Die durchschnittliche Rendite der Immobilien-Trusts war 2003 fünf Prozentpunkte höher als die Rendite der zehnjähriger Regierungsanleihen. Der Vorsprung ist auf zwei bis drei Prozentpunkte geschmolze.....Ein schärferer Wind wird Japans Immobilienbranche entgegenwehen, wenn die Bank of Japan (BOJ) die geldpolitischen Zügel strafft. Von der Null-Zins-Politik profitieren die Reits. Manche haben sich mit billigen Bankkrediten hochgradig fremdfinanziert. BOJ-Gouverneur Toshihiko Fukui deutet seit geraumer Zeit an, er halte einen Kurswechsel in der Zinspolitik demnächst für angebracht. Zudem soll die Finanzaufsichtsbehörde begonnen haben, die bisweilen exzessiven Bankausleihungen an den Immobiliensektor unter die Lupe zu nehmen.
16-02.06
GOOGLE , DOWN ?
see US list from Credit Suisse
switch PFE
Brazil Telecom?
Russia Auctions RUB 3.5 billion of 30-year domestic bonds
Russia successfully auctioned RUB 3.5 billion (USD 120 million) at an average yield of 6.99%. The 30-year auction was 6.47
times oversubscribed as investors placed bids worth RUB 22.4 billion. (USD 775 million). The treasury also placed RUB 8 billion
of ten-year notes at an average yield of 6.73%. The Ministry of finance stated that it is their intention to continue to develop local
markets and form a yield curve with a very wide spectrum of maturities. This development coincides with substantial retirement of
hard currency bonds. The proceeds of the 30-year auction will partly be used to finance pension funds.
Juan Briceno, Phone +41 44 332 92 83, juan.briceno@credit-suisse.com
FM 07.02.06
Introducing a commodities index to a diversified portfolio has historically reduced overall risk while increasing returns...because of low correaltion to stocks and bonds...
UBS open end perles on Sugar and CS sof commodities certificateplus (e.mail)
1.2.05
pfe keeps rising go long short rogn ?
31.1.05
going short the mrkt, decreasing position . looking for info on rlnc and increaisng weight try
29.1.05
strong volatility , this time gas and opil price + gepolitical tensions with Iran. Japan, crazy , sony +15% in one day . Liverdoor scandal forgotten.
Check RUB domestic bonds for diversification purpose.
26.01.06
-CHINA BECOMING 4TH WORLDWIDE ECONOMY BEHIND USA, JAPAN, GERMANY
-NOKIA: Q4 FIGURES TODAY AT 11.00 SWISS TIME. ML BUY OPINION.
-REPSOL: TO WRITE DOWN RESERVES BY 25%. SWITCH IN ROYAL DUTCH.
-BMW: LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL. ML DOWNGRADE TO NEUTRAL RATING.
-SIEMENS: BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS. HEDGES CLOSING SHORTS.
-INFINEON: STOCK TO WATCH. IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS + SEXY CHART.
-AXA: SOLID Q4 NUMBERS. ML BUY OPINION. PRICE TARGET EUR 31.50. -DEUTSCHE TELEKOM: KPI'S LOOK OK. HEDGES TO CLOSE SOME SHORTS.
-RICHEMONT: GOOD XMAS. ML REITERATE BUY RATING. TARGET CHF 63.
-VERBUND: HEDGES TAKE SOME PROFITS. SWITCH IN FORTUM (FUM1V FH). -LINDT & SPRUNGLI: ML UPGRADE FROM NEUTRAL TO BUY RECOMMENDATION
25.01.05
Bonaparte ( B)
reliance : spin off , sum of the values, broker advice ?
caplay, japanese real estate , value number ?
truecorp, thai, telcom
149254
c heck russia
allianz
24.01.05
check russia pxatcheroska and teleocms. brl
18.01.05
correction goes, politcal scandal in japan, nikkei below 15500. shares affected? financial stocks look sound. techno blood bath, intc down 20% in 2 days ! check mining and oil ( nem, rd). brl. abb, allianz.
17.01.05
so put so call nem
markets are retracing following highraw material prices . nikei below 16000, finally ! check again brl and mxn.
12.01.05
emerging market corprations ?
taiwan?
sugar?
chadoa ?
see articles fuw korea
homegate annuncio zh
www.craiglist.com
10.01.06
correction, causes , overbought ? underweight pharama overweight industrials ( abb, sgs, sulzer,adecco, schindler )?
norislk beaten down, ??
08.01.06
06 started very well . however eu interst rate policy will weigh in triggering volatirlity.
private equity , swisscanto, get out of hfunds , proposals?
country : japan higher, brazil ( exporters?)and russia ( domestic lines)
insurance sector : allianz
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
what about domestic emerg markl bonds ?
fuw
chck article lichtenstein, us markets, sap, berna an novn,mikron,swisscanto,sp bearish ( see interest rates), gas news and shares, south africa.
south african rand, rates 8%, sunw upgrade by UBS, gold and uran on demand , cimsa turkey , infrastructure ( komatsu,abb,united technologies, vinci, atlas copco
3.08.06
china, rates up, renimbi up USD=7,60?, stock market down ? recommended china telecom, china medical + shandong weiGAO( cmed.qq,8t99.hix), Solar Power
LATIN AMERica, AGRARIAN COmpanies , cresud ( g. soros), brasilagio, cosan
Agriculture dealers, Daniesl Midland (ADM),
Celluloid , ARACRUZ
Cat Bonds
Forex Fund ??
1.08.06
south african rand , appreciation??? bonds ??
sell knock ins options ???
csfb : banks overweihght ( see italy, japan, thailand)
28.07.06
brazil , best among lamerica , target bovespa 48000, see mining, oil , aerospace
26.07.06
osiris , ipo, 31 july,
metals , go long, see rogers 2018
dna ??? research ?
amd/ intc
basket alternative energies abn amro
royal dutch, news, chart . breaking resistance ?
India, what'sup, rates up , currency risk, see csfb
dna; amercian pharma .
usd weakness ?
go long abb
1.07.06
fed tightens : 5.25 , is it the end ? soon company figures july august. try invest garanti bank or bonds
€26.06.06
emerging currencies under pressure , aprticularly see try and huf, ie those with large account deficts . the question is , for how long and why the USD does not depreciate at the same extent ?
equity markets consolidating , recovering some losses but the game is open and the trend a question mark . will the good company results come to the rescue of the indices propping up the world economy with an injection of optimism or will the inflationary fear coupled with a usd currency crisis tak over ?
in switzerland , roche is doing very well , good news from their pipeline
RECOMMENDED COMPANIES : RIETER , SAURER ( see textile machines)
22.06.06
qui sotto alcune osservazioni tratte da alcune analisi del CS (chissà che non si possa trovare la gallina dalle uova d’oro…).
In generale i fondamentali restano solidi in tutta l’Asia. La recente correzione sul mercato azionario sembra aver eliminato gran parte dell’eccesso speculativo sui mercati asiatici e ripristinato valutazioni azionarie eque.
Le principali conclusioni da trarre dal sell-off:
- I mercati con valutazioni P/E eccessive prime della fase di correzione, Giappone a 21 volte i fwd earnings ed India a 19 volte, hanno registrato le perdite maggiori
- I mercati con valutazioni ragionevoli, malaysia e A shares cinesi, hanno regsitrato perdite minori
- La sincronizzazione della politica monetaria restrittiva della FED e delle banche centrali asiatiche è molto pronunciata
- I solidi fondamentali implicano maggiori possibilità di rialzi di tassi nel 2007
Il CS consiglia la seguente strategia:
- Mantenere gli investimenti in azioni dato il protrarsi della forte crescita degli utili delle maggiori società asiatiche, ma prepararsi ad altra volatilità nel breve termine.
- Sovrappesare large cap asiatiche come immobili (Capitaland a Singapore), banche (Bank Central Asia in indonesia) e titoli al consumo (Astra Agro Lestari – piantagioni in Indonesia)
- Ripristinare posizioni difensive in Giappone (per 12 mesi)
Tema speciale azioni: ETANOLO
21.06.06
An Japan festhalten,
abb , gold, turkey
20.06.06
gold and silver under pressure . olar shares.
check article
FuW-Serie: Ein hoher Ölpreis kennt viele Gewinner
Solarenergie
4.06.06
big correction occurred , usd weakness, inflation ? , emerging markets retreating, hedge funds active on the dipping markets. what's next ? gold ? alternative enrgies , hedging ? soem companies on alternativbe energies
Energiekontor,Vestas Wind Systems, Renewable Energy ,Conergy,Plambeck , Gamesa ( spain)
FuW-Serie: Ein hoher Ölpreis kennt viele Gewinner
Windkraftwerke
Hohe Renditechancen mit geringen Kursavancen
$turkish banks
Turkiye Vakiflar, eine türkische Bank mit einem grossen Potenzial im Wachstumsmarkt Türkei.
strategy : close put RUK
CHECK TURKEY BANK, EXIT STRATEGY TRY
ACCUMULATE GOLD
9.05.05
swithcv rog+novn in glaxo +astra zeneca
etf south africa
newmont ?
gold higher = real interest rates lower , target usd 850 log term( ML)
8.05.06
blogs
http://www.phatinvestor.com/
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/06/markets/financial_blogs/index.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/
3.4.06
swiss re
russia revaluation, consumer stocks. WMD, PYATCHE, BALTIKA,LYABE,LEBEDIANSKI
STEEL SECTOR, UTILITIES:BELDODERONERGO
1.4.06
Blom Bank
CVRD Mining
real estate Japan, Nomura
new zeland and iceland ( 7,2% and 11%)
Pyatch Sp GDR Reg-S (FIVE)
check paper
check evraz russia
31.03.06
check GE call
27.03.06
check insurance
26.03.06
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9742
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9799
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9789
deutsche telecom , dividend 5%
sunw, orcl ?
Consolidation ?abhängig. Ist er chancen-risiko-orientiert, wird er nicht zur gleichen Konklusion kommen wie einer, der grundlegend in Aktien investiert sein will. Vorstellbar ist, dass die kommenden Wochen kurzfristig noch höhere Kurse bringen. Darüber hinaus sehen wir Euro Stoxx und SMI aber in eine längere Konsolidierung einmünden, die auf Sicht einiger Wochen auch die Konturen einer kräftigeren Korrektur annehmen kann: alles eine Frage des Timings.Roland Vogt
Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsui Fudosan und Sumitomo Realty legten 2 bis 3% ....
«Nachdem der indonesische Präsident Yudohoyono im letzten Jahr die immensen Ölsubventionen gestrichen hatte, stieg die Inflation rasant auf 17%, weshalb die Zinsen massiv angehoben wurden. Der erwartete Einbruch des Privatkonsums wurde durch Direktzahlungen an einkommensschwache Familien abgefedert. Zusammen mit der robusten Exportnachfrage und der soliden Agrarproduktion half dies, die Konjunktur zu stabilisieren.....Eine konjunkturelle Beschleunigung sowie graduell sinkende Zinsen unterstützen unserer Meinung nach den Banken- und den Konsumsektor. Trotz des jüngsten Preisanstiegs favorisieren wir Matahari Putra Prima (Detailhandel) und Bank Rakyat.»
22.03.06
real estate funds in europe
middle east underwent correction
21.03.06
philippines, investment
18.03.06
gold price and china reserves deemed to increase
genentech
16.03.06
usd stable at 1.30
newyork governor :
low interest rates = chinese savings purchasing US T and not high productivity with low inflation. other forms of inflation such as rela estate prices .
20.02.06
werner merzbacher, samler und anleger
new mont mining, what's up?
Japan , down, real estate ?Komatsu ?
Real estate investment trusts (Reits) an Popularität gewonnen. Diese Aktiengesellschaften unterhalten ein Portfolio von Liegenschaften und schütten den Ertrag aus Verkauf und Miete als Dividende aus. Die meisten Reits investieren in gewerbliche Liegenschaften: Sie versprechen höhere Renditen, zumal der Bevölkerungsschwund die Nachfrage nach Wohnbauten schmälert.Vergangenes Jahr hat sich die Zahl der kotierten Reits auf 28 verdoppelt. Der Reit-Index an der Tokioter Börse notierte vergangene Woche auf einem Allzeithoch von 1703. Marktbeobachter warnen aber vor einer neuerlichen Blase im Immobiliensektor. Die um lukrative Liegenschaften buhlenden Reits heizen die Immobilienpreise an. Nicht im gleichen Ausmass mitgezogen haben die Mieteinnahmen. Die durchschnittliche Rendite der Immobilien-Trusts war 2003 fünf Prozentpunkte höher als die Rendite der zehnjähriger Regierungsanleihen. Der Vorsprung ist auf zwei bis drei Prozentpunkte geschmolze.....Ein schärferer Wind wird Japans Immobilienbranche entgegenwehen, wenn die Bank of Japan (BOJ) die geldpolitischen Zügel strafft. Von der Null-Zins-Politik profitieren die Reits. Manche haben sich mit billigen Bankkrediten hochgradig fremdfinanziert. BOJ-Gouverneur Toshihiko Fukui deutet seit geraumer Zeit an, er halte einen Kurswechsel in der Zinspolitik demnächst für angebracht. Zudem soll die Finanzaufsichtsbehörde begonnen haben, die bisweilen exzessiven Bankausleihungen an den Immobiliensektor unter die Lupe zu nehmen.
16-02.06
GOOGLE , DOWN ?
see US list from Credit Suisse
switch PFE
Brazil Telecom?
Russia Auctions RUB 3.5 billion of 30-year domestic bonds
Russia successfully auctioned RUB 3.5 billion (USD 120 million) at an average yield of 6.99%. The 30-year auction was 6.47
times oversubscribed as investors placed bids worth RUB 22.4 billion. (USD 775 million). The treasury also placed RUB 8 billion
of ten-year notes at an average yield of 6.73%. The Ministry of finance stated that it is their intention to continue to develop local
markets and form a yield curve with a very wide spectrum of maturities. This development coincides with substantial retirement of
hard currency bonds. The proceeds of the 30-year auction will partly be used to finance pension funds.
Juan Briceno, Phone +41 44 332 92 83, juan.briceno@credit-suisse.com
FM 07.02.06
Introducing a commodities index to a diversified portfolio has historically reduced overall risk while increasing returns...because of low correaltion to stocks and bonds...
UBS open end perles on Sugar and CS sof commodities certificateplus (e.mail)
1.2.05
pfe keeps rising go long short rogn ?
31.1.05
going short the mrkt, decreasing position . looking for info on rlnc and increaisng weight try
29.1.05
strong volatility , this time gas and opil price + gepolitical tensions with Iran. Japan, crazy , sony +15% in one day . Liverdoor scandal forgotten.
Check RUB domestic bonds for diversification purpose.
26.01.06
-CHINA BECOMING 4TH WORLDWIDE ECONOMY BEHIND USA, JAPAN, GERMANY
-NOKIA: Q4 FIGURES TODAY AT 11.00 SWISS TIME. ML BUY OPINION.
-REPSOL: TO WRITE DOWN RESERVES BY 25%. SWITCH IN ROYAL DUTCH.
-BMW: LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL. ML DOWNGRADE TO NEUTRAL RATING.
-SIEMENS: BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS. HEDGES CLOSING SHORTS.
-INFINEON: STOCK TO WATCH. IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS + SEXY CHART.
-AXA: SOLID Q4 NUMBERS. ML BUY OPINION. PRICE TARGET EUR 31.50. -DEUTSCHE TELEKOM: KPI'S LOOK OK. HEDGES TO CLOSE SOME SHORTS.
-RICHEMONT: GOOD XMAS. ML REITERATE BUY RATING. TARGET CHF 63.
-VERBUND: HEDGES TAKE SOME PROFITS. SWITCH IN FORTUM (FUM1V FH). -LINDT & SPRUNGLI: ML UPGRADE FROM NEUTRAL TO BUY RECOMMENDATION
25.01.05
Bonaparte ( B)
reliance : spin off , sum of the values, broker advice ?
caplay, japanese real estate , value number ?
truecorp, thai, telcom
149254
c heck russia
allianz
24.01.05
check russia pxatcheroska and teleocms. brl
18.01.05
correction goes, politcal scandal in japan, nikkei below 15500. shares affected? financial stocks look sound. techno blood bath, intc down 20% in 2 days ! check mining and oil ( nem, rd). brl. abb, allianz.
17.01.05
so put so call nem
markets are retracing following highraw material prices . nikei below 16000, finally ! check again brl and mxn.
12.01.05
emerging market corprations ?
taiwan?
sugar?
chadoa ?
see articles fuw korea
homegate annuncio zh
www.craiglist.com
10.01.06
correction, causes , overbought ? underweight pharama overweight industrials ( abb, sgs, sulzer,adecco, schindler )?
norislk beaten down, ??
08.01.06
06 started very well . however eu interst rate policy will weigh in triggering volatirlity.
private equity , swisscanto, get out of hfunds , proposals?
country : japan higher, brazil ( exporters?)and russia ( domestic lines)
insurance sector : allianz
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
what about domestic emerg markl bonds ?
fuw
chck article lichtenstein, us markets, sap, berna an novn,mikron,swisscanto,sp bearish ( see interest rates), gas news and shares, south africa.
from the emst
The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.
So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.
Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.
modus06
08.01.06
06 started very well .
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
06 started very well .
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.
So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.
Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.
modus06
06 started very well .
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.
So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.
Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.
modus06
06 started very well .
The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.
So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.
Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.
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