12.08.2011
interview to mr gysi on abgeltungssteur , germany , fishing expedition. by the way, gysi was appointed on march 2011 at the snb board replacing konrad hummler. thanks hildbrand. continues w/ artcile by peter morf on swiss page on details of state secretary international finance michael embuehl w/ germany agreement under attack now by sp oppostion cause like an amnesty. switzerland pay chf 2 bio collected w/ a bank levy!
ansteckung, contagion, editoriaL FUW
chf pegegd to eur, peg rumors invert the trend , finally, rumors, rumors, snb and hilderbrand understood that rethroic is an important war tool. yuppi!
Peter bernholz, economic prof basel, specialist of currency history, in favor of peg, disocunt rate @ 0% increases balance sheet liquidity to chf 120 bio, swaps operations to fight appreciation.
peter morf,applauds the snb intervention ( was there any or was it simple words?) and warns against public spending indicating it wrongly as the cause of recession while suggesting that there is no solution to market liberalisation, sic, the paradox of switzerland! the stock market adjusted will the domestic economy follow? impossible, there would be social wars.
chflibor in negative territory, zkb changes tones and declares no interest rates increase sic david marmet, no currency targets, only highlight is threat of recession in switzerland
zurich insured its total stocks w/ 2.2% of the portfolio!
china vcurrency appreciated to 6.4 vs usd , not seen sinvce 1994 , wow duds , what r u up to?
10.08.2011
kenneth rogoff blasts debt as hindering growth
canada experience after lsing triple a and recovering soon after
german utilities and withdrawal from nuclear
7.08.2011
preter bernholz, prof basel, specialised in currency history , makes it clear , snb lacked the guts, ideas and will to enact a coherent policy to defend the chf, a reflection of its president philippe hildebrand who prefers to attend international conferences for lobbying rather than doing the dirty job in bern.he did not anything control the expectations on chf. this happened in 1970s w/ president leutwyler following leo schuerman proposal and setting negative rates and eventiually forex intervention. according to chris woods from clsa however this would not work and stands for nhegative rates . nota bene , chris woods is just bull sheeter abt switzerland
real estate speculation in CH , not really according 2 sarasin bank specialist who states that funding costs for inevstors= 5%. really but where did u come up with this figure ? further, interesting point, finma, snb and gvmnt set up advisor comittee , self regulartory banking rules should not benefit owners.
26.7.2011
fuw editorial defending chf strength with flawed arguments, no proof that strong chf is not affecting exports, they look backward not forward as w/ stock market . It looks the real ideological arm of economie suisse and the financial lobby while the stock market is freezing because of the chf strength. We re hostages of this ricola men, of their pride 2 b perfect island. Sooner or later they will be hit by an avalanche falling down the alps.
According to oecd big mac criteria chf 50% appreciated big mac ratio where 1 ch big mac buys 2 american ones. In case of sovereign crisis ch banks have a total balance sheet of 2700 billions.this will bring down siwssies too.
UBS, fuw recommends to avoid shares! Not good sign , investment banking and regulatory pressure constrain expectedearnings. Stoxx bank 2x higher from their lowest , ubs and csgn at their lowest, owing to chf strength and the us irs pressure.
Yale University endowment fund targets 7% return w/ HF, Private Equity and Real Estate, avoids stocks
thematic investment, sociological study top down approach . Stephen cheetam comes up with these typologies, emerging middle class, heightened cyclicality,energy transformation, web2.0, genomic age, financial reformation. Thisd what should be called, the AGE OF FINANCIAL REFORMATION.
article on gold mining stocks, better positioned than gold, barrick gold and nem, among others. Nem expensive, Yamana Gold , Kinross from CAD cheap. Goldcorp, Barrick ,all from CAD. RBC study
Friday, July 29, 2011
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
value underperforming growth, similarity w/ tech bubble end of 90s
thanks to social media, aapl and goog sucking all available capitals in an unregulated market controlled by discriminate distribution of advertisng revenues through monpolistic manipulation of digital technology
“Value” stocks have underperformed in Q2’11 by 7.1%. The size of this move is greater than any other time since at least 2005. Furthermore, in July this trend dramatically accelerated, with Value underperforming by as much as 6.3% at the worst point last week. If this pace of underperformance continued for the whole quarter, it would amount to 28%, which is multiples greater than seen in any other quarter since ’05 and comparable only to Q4’99, the eye of the Tech Bubble.
At sector level, we note a significant ytd outperformance of Autos, by 12% vs the market. Our analyst believes that Q2 results will be robust for the sector, but we think this is widely anticipated, and in the near term Autos appear overowned, overbought and running out of positive catalysts. We take profits in Autos, moving from OW to N. We see this as a tactical downgrade given that the fundamentals of the sector remain resilient in our view.
We would use the funds to add to Banks and to other Cyclicals, in particular Construction Materials, which we upgrade to OW. The subsector has underperformed ytd and is attractively priced. Our analyst notes challenging US construction market, but we think a lot has been discounted already. JPM economists expect EM activity, which accounts for 2/3rds of sector revenues, to pick-up in 2H.
In terms of our market outlook we continue to believe that a bullish stance will prevail, despite high volatility and elevated tail risks. We find investors do not want to commit because they fear the repeat of ’08, but in our view it is exactly because people remember ’08 that one should be invested now. Recent newsflow suggests policymakers arelikely to stumble towards a solution and 35% of MSCI Europe names are trading below 10x forward P/E. We think Financials have to perform in the event of market stabilisation
“Value” stocks have underperformed in Q2’11 by 7.1%. The size of this move is greater than any other time since at least 2005. Furthermore, in July this trend dramatically accelerated, with Value underperforming by as much as 6.3% at the worst point last week. If this pace of underperformance continued for the whole quarter, it would amount to 28%, which is multiples greater than seen in any other quarter since ’05 and comparable only to Q4’99, the eye of the Tech Bubble.
At sector level, we note a significant ytd outperformance of Autos, by 12% vs the market. Our analyst believes that Q2 results will be robust for the sector, but we think this is widely anticipated, and in the near term Autos appear overowned, overbought and running out of positive catalysts. We take profits in Autos, moving from OW to N. We see this as a tactical downgrade given that the fundamentals of the sector remain resilient in our view.
We would use the funds to add to Banks and to other Cyclicals, in particular Construction Materials, which we upgrade to OW. The subsector has underperformed ytd and is attractively priced. Our analyst notes challenging US construction market, but we think a lot has been discounted already. JPM economists expect EM activity, which accounts for 2/3rds of sector revenues, to pick-up in 2H.
In terms of our market outlook we continue to believe that a bullish stance will prevail, despite high volatility and elevated tail risks. We find investors do not want to commit because they fear the repeat of ’08, but in our view it is exactly because people remember ’08 that one should be invested now. Recent newsflow suggests policymakers arelikely to stumble towards a solution and 35% of MSCI Europe names are trading below 10x forward P/E. We think Financials have to perform in the event of market stabilisation
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
25.07.2011
23.07.2010
Bruckhardt , margins under pressure., editorial of Thomas Straubbaar on transfer and fiscal union in the EU on the model of Switzerland.
Pharma performance.
CS does not recommend neither peg to eur nor sovereign fund proposed by UBS, however there shpoudl be an expansive policy and a clear goal, in line w/ what said by hayek. Cs is under assault by US for trivial bank acocunts and against any bilateral agreement see http://bloom.bg/nc3DZZ
CHF exports r falling vis a vis Germany, really!so what next , sould switzerland take part to greece rescue ? Sarasin always positive eur/chf 1.30 by mid of next year
CIRRUS CRUS , microchip designer depending on aapl, pe 13
good article on GE
German bastion, DBANK, directed by Anshu Jan, 48 years Indian born, a novelty for the icon of German capitalism
Minority Tea party conservatives highjacking Boehner republican speaker? They disapprove Lyndon johnson great society welfare state economically not viable given population aging, they want to dismantle medicare.
ING successfully divesting its assets , trading at a 15% discount of its book value
Mr Wey, Harbion Electric , Sino Forest , Orient Paper and Carson Block
Pharma , novartis and roche , p/e 10 and 11, historically undervalued , the problem is not the strong chf but the heavy regualted pharma market that stifles innovation.
Real estate investments, pension funds moving to Investment Foundations, Anlage Stiftung ( AVADIS, assetimmo) , more liquid parts, better cantonal tax tratmentof income and capital gain or swaps.
Kurt Scuele pathetic article or when an mp becomes an investment advisor , on setting up a sovereign fund based on article 5 ( «auf den Finanzmärkten auf Schweizerfranken oder Fremdwährungen lautende Forderungen und Effekten sowie Edelmetalle» ) , buy nok, aud, cad to make sound investments and counter eur and usd zone! They stop short of regulation because of liberist policies but they promote a mercantilistic state . they should then buy large swathes of land and send swiss farmers over there to transger the currency gains to normal consumers with lower food prices.
Global Forum on Transparency and exch of info for tax prurposes , switzerland passes the test set by oecd. Robert desax , mnckinsey, motto of general patton, presuure makes diamonds. Like Pmorris swiss banks will work onmly with emerging markets
to haircut or not, greece dilemma on 21% haircut or when collective action does not work bcause private interests. In times of crisis Legittimacy cereates undecidiveness ion europe as well as usa making democracies more vulnerable. Athens reminds u that democray and wealth go together and r always at risk .
American bans under book value, eu exposure not clear although direct investments in U bonds are low. Dood INTERESTING ARTICLE , Dodd Frank Wall Street reform and consumer protection act with more than 3000 pages and 400 paragraphs approved on July 2010 last year has been executed only by 10%. Consumer Financial protection Bureau to control mortgages and credit cards , Richard Cordray appointment filibustered by republicans , Volcker rule to limit investments in hedgefunds or subrpime products by banks, control of OTC derivative market to create more liquidity , 600k billions at stake, bankrupcy of mega banks and supervision of rating agencies are all far from executed. In the eu after the stress tetst , new law presented in line with basel III requiring 460 billions of new capital It looks like there are works undergoing in capitalist democratic economies to secure a better soft rather than hard landing in the next economic crisis. Similar situation underwent china after the Asian crisis , it took time before fixing the problems of its banks and reigniting confidence,. The difference here is that we talkabt a democratic representative system w checks and balances and not an authoritarian system . This may matter when it comes to speed of execution and efficiency and may fill the gap futher more btw the chinese model and our political eocnomic systems when it comesa to gdp per capita. It is a historical law where cohesive empires attest declien and uprise stages helped in aprt by their critical size. Clearly china is on the right side right now whereas europe divisions and usa inetrnal squabbling dont help. The war made usa strong because udner pressure, talking abt a serious war not antiterrosrism operations. As general patton sued to stay we forge diamonds under pressure.
Article on pharm regulation stifling and class actions, the worst hit since the past 10 years is the pharma industry.
Brazilains banks and gruppo Bimbo from Mexico
Bruckhardt , margins under pressure., editorial of Thomas Straubbaar on transfer and fiscal union in the EU on the model of Switzerland.
Pharma performance.
CS does not recommend neither peg to eur nor sovereign fund proposed by UBS, however there shpoudl be an expansive policy and a clear goal, in line w/ what said by hayek. Cs is under assault by US for trivial bank acocunts and against any bilateral agreement see http://bloom.bg/nc3DZZ
CHF exports r falling vis a vis Germany, really!so what next , sould switzerland take part to greece rescue ? Sarasin always positive eur/chf 1.30 by mid of next year
CIRRUS CRUS , microchip designer depending on aapl, pe 13
good article on GE
German bastion, DBANK, directed by Anshu Jan, 48 years Indian born, a novelty for the icon of German capitalism
Minority Tea party conservatives highjacking Boehner republican speaker? They disapprove Lyndon johnson great society welfare state economically not viable given population aging, they want to dismantle medicare.
ING successfully divesting its assets , trading at a 15% discount of its book value
Mr Wey, Harbion Electric , Sino Forest , Orient Paper and Carson Block
Pharma , novartis and roche , p/e 10 and 11, historically undervalued , the problem is not the strong chf but the heavy regualted pharma market that stifles innovation.
Real estate investments, pension funds moving to Investment Foundations, Anlage Stiftung ( AVADIS, assetimmo) , more liquid parts, better cantonal tax tratmentof income and capital gain or swaps.
Kurt Scuele pathetic article or when an mp becomes an investment advisor , on setting up a sovereign fund based on article 5 ( «auf den Finanzmärkten auf Schweizerfranken oder Fremdwährungen lautende Forderungen und Effekten sowie Edelmetalle» ) , buy nok, aud, cad to make sound investments and counter eur and usd zone! They stop short of regulation because of liberist policies but they promote a mercantilistic state . they should then buy large swathes of land and send swiss farmers over there to transger the currency gains to normal consumers with lower food prices.
Global Forum on Transparency and exch of info for tax prurposes , switzerland passes the test set by oecd. Robert desax , mnckinsey, motto of general patton, presuure makes diamonds. Like Pmorris swiss banks will work onmly with emerging markets
to haircut or not, greece dilemma on 21% haircut or when collective action does not work bcause private interests. In times of crisis Legittimacy cereates undecidiveness ion europe as well as usa making democracies more vulnerable. Athens reminds u that democray and wealth go together and r always at risk .
American bans under book value, eu exposure not clear although direct investments in U bonds are low. Dood INTERESTING ARTICLE , Dodd Frank Wall Street reform and consumer protection act with more than 3000 pages and 400 paragraphs approved on July 2010 last year has been executed only by 10%. Consumer Financial protection Bureau to control mortgages and credit cards , Richard Cordray appointment filibustered by republicans , Volcker rule to limit investments in hedgefunds or subrpime products by banks, control of OTC derivative market to create more liquidity , 600k billions at stake, bankrupcy of mega banks and supervision of rating agencies are all far from executed. In the eu after the stress tetst , new law presented in line with basel III requiring 460 billions of new capital It looks like there are works undergoing in capitalist democratic economies to secure a better soft rather than hard landing in the next economic crisis. Similar situation underwent china after the Asian crisis , it took time before fixing the problems of its banks and reigniting confidence,. The difference here is that we talkabt a democratic representative system w checks and balances and not an authoritarian system . This may matter when it comes to speed of execution and efficiency and may fill the gap futher more btw the chinese model and our political eocnomic systems when it comesa to gdp per capita. It is a historical law where cohesive empires attest declien and uprise stages helped in aprt by their critical size. Clearly china is on the right side right now whereas europe divisions and usa inetrnal squabbling dont help. The war made usa strong because udner pressure, talking abt a serious war not antiterrosrism operations. As general patton sued to stay we forge diamonds under pressure.
Article on pharm regulation stifling and class actions, the worst hit since the past 10 years is the pharma industry.
Brazilains banks and gruppo Bimbo from Mexico
Monday, July 25, 2011
july 2011 sovreign crisis
17-7-2011
Holcim goes east, russian president and conseillers federaux assist to new factory opening. FINMA and UBS excused, Hayek speaks 4 clearer BNS goals, green and left against strong chf ( p.15 article)
Rating Agencies stocks are outperforming in spite of past mistakes! Good news for CH banks which are targetted once again by US GVMNT ( p 27). We re just losers and escape goats. Asia attractive valuation after correction ( p. 30)
EMS chemie , blocher group, does very well.
16.7.2011
finma and ubs not guilty ( p 19), uster, ems chemie good results, chf recipee , let chf exports fall. Wow! Credit suisse under scrutiny for tax evasion, same ubs scenario, thomas flury sees eur/chf 1.20/1.30 realistic, holcim buy in russia w/ putin and bundesrat @ cerimony. Left and green party for pegging currency ( p.15). Rating agencies r doing well ! Really, what abt past mistakes ? Asia , buy opportgunity after correction
20.7.2011
new ceo for sonova, schaffner chf income down , Editorial against state interventioon on chf strenght, once gaian, however arguments are biased , proposals too. p. 15 Credit suisse attacked by minister of justce ( p.20) Nigeria, promise of Africa ( p 29)
measures to fight stronger chf ; make albor work more and curb their salary
23.07.2010
Bruckhardt , margins under pressure., editorial of Thomas Straubbaar on transfer and fiscal union in the EU on the model of Switzerland.
Pharma performance.
CS does not recommend neither peg to eur nor sovereign fund proposed by UBS, however there shpoudl be an expansive policy and a clear goal, in line w/ what said by hayek. Cs is under assault by US for trivial bank acocunts and against any bilateral agreement see http://bloom.bg/nc3DZZ
CHF exports r falling vis a vis Germany, really!so what next , sould switzerland take part to greece rescue ? Sarasin always positive eur/chf 1.30 by mid of next year
CIRRUS CRUS , microchip designer depending on aapl, pe 13
good article on GE
Holcim goes east, russian president and conseillers federaux assist to new factory opening. FINMA and UBS excused, Hayek speaks 4 clearer BNS goals, green and left against strong chf ( p.15 article)
Rating Agencies stocks are outperforming in spite of past mistakes! Good news for CH banks which are targetted once again by US GVMNT ( p 27). We re just losers and escape goats. Asia attractive valuation after correction ( p. 30)
EMS chemie , blocher group, does very well.
16.7.2011
finma and ubs not guilty ( p 19), uster, ems chemie good results, chf recipee , let chf exports fall. Wow! Credit suisse under scrutiny for tax evasion, same ubs scenario, thomas flury sees eur/chf 1.20/1.30 realistic, holcim buy in russia w/ putin and bundesrat @ cerimony. Left and green party for pegging currency ( p.15). Rating agencies r doing well ! Really, what abt past mistakes ? Asia , buy opportgunity after correction
20.7.2011
new ceo for sonova, schaffner chf income down , Editorial against state interventioon on chf strenght, once gaian, however arguments are biased , proposals too. p. 15 Credit suisse attacked by minister of justce ( p.20) Nigeria, promise of Africa ( p 29)
measures to fight stronger chf ; make albor work more and curb their salary
23.07.2010
Bruckhardt , margins under pressure., editorial of Thomas Straubbaar on transfer and fiscal union in the EU on the model of Switzerland.
Pharma performance.
CS does not recommend neither peg to eur nor sovereign fund proposed by UBS, however there shpoudl be an expansive policy and a clear goal, in line w/ what said by hayek. Cs is under assault by US for trivial bank acocunts and against any bilateral agreement see http://bloom.bg/nc3DZZ
CHF exports r falling vis a vis Germany, really!so what next , sould switzerland take part to greece rescue ? Sarasin always positive eur/chf 1.30 by mid of next year
CIRRUS CRUS , microchip designer depending on aapl, pe 13
good article on GE
5.5.11
INDUSTRIALS, TECHNOLOGY, AND FINANCIALS SHOULD DRIVE FINAL 25% RETRACE. As we noted p(see “Circle of Life: Downgrading Consumer Disc…” dated 04/01/2011), the Sectors driving the final 25% retrace histori those driving the 75% retrace (see Figure 14 to Figure 17). In the current bull market, the 3 largest contributors to point the March 2009 low are Financials (138 pts), Technology (135 pts), and Industrials (89 pts), followed closely by Disc(84 pts). The only exception to this pattern was the 1982 bull market, when Healthcare was #2 in points of 75% retrafinal 25% was led by Industrials and Basic Materials, neither a major contributor to the 75% retrace (see Figure 14).
MARKET STRATEGY: 16 IDEAS FOR 25% RETRACE. We remain constructive on equities, while acknowledging the mounting headwinds to the thesis: (i) higher oil; (ii) end of QE2; (iii) Japan disruptions; (iv) Washington budget battles; and (v) peripheral Europe. Investors remain largely cautious, which, when combined with active manager under performance and positive inflows, points to managers being “pulled into equities.” Moreover, we expect markets to be flattish June-Sept (for reasons noted) but still see 1250 on 3/15 as the “low for the year.” Our screen identified low P/E ideas from those 3 sectors. The tickers are WFC, HPQ, PNC, ALL, SYMC, CA, FDX, AFL, PRU, ETN, RIMM, MET, RTN, HIG, INTC, and CSX (see Figure 19).
etn , eaton, rtn, raytheon, csx
fuw 5.5.11
japan reconstruction effort
greek bonds restructuring, 60 pc nominal expected
interest rate hike, banks profits increase according credit/ deposit ratio, however this varies and some banks depend on capital amrkets more than others. Invest in wealth managemen and conservative profiles
stock market , clariant is back
International Coal group bought + 40pc
USA estate tax affecting stocks as well? ENQUIRE , JJ
cicor , recommended
usual contradictory macro economic signals, to be or not to be, looks like inflation gaining momentum and exports decreasing, likely scenario discounted by the markets. in the meantime central banks restrain from hiking rates.
At times of uncertainty with sluggish economy still positive comments on stocks , see interview at creditsuisse investment head, german guy with the same blunt redundant statements
htc amazing performance, better than appl
german perles, roth und rau, prices very high
who succeeds to warren buffet?interesting 1971 guy.
Derby cycle,electrical bykes.
Chinese pharma market and regualtory hurdles for western firms, exponential growth
japan pile up after earthquake
capital markets constraints for investments in asia , interesting study by the asian bank
aud strength , check telstra . telstra getting close to aud 3, att ebyond 30, dtel on 11 , telecom stocks dong well, accumulate ? Telefonica and dtel
check also pharma , biotech, interest moving towards these companies,cyclicals down.
Cds racket cartel , eu investigates
7.05.2011
article on environment and defense of nuclear by the prince of liechtrenstein
alternative to nuclear tech : gas kombi, so berner kraftwerk
commodities correction, gs forecasted , next scenario back up
bad press article on telecom being challenged by social networks
sonova in red
petroplus , 15% in 1 week
Barry Callebaut cacao producer outperforming SMI
MXN PESO up vs USD after good macr data from the USA
Greece , prices discounting restructuring , better long term than medieum term maturities
*A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation, «Journal of Economic Perspectives», Winter 2011.
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/stein/files/JEP-macroprudential-July22-2010.pdf
Finanzsystem präventiv sichern
Notenbanken wollen ihr Instrumentarium um makroprudentielle Massnahmen erweitern (Teil 2)
article on insurance companies and impact of tornados,special mention of zurich, sonova results good, dividend unchanged, this after profit warning and insider sale scandal.http://bloom.bg/g9C3qf . Good article on Holcim, solid investment?
Telecoms and Facebook+other social media, interesting chart on the food chain of telecom+ internet services. Discussion on the segmented pricing that telecoms could charge to content providers according to peak times and usage, ie facebook could be charged more than others?
Raw material prices are managed better by chemical companies than cleaning cosmetics products companies. Alstom, bad review, dividend cut, reorganisation, outlook not appealing in spite of infrastructure investments. Glencore bad review, transparency problem. ING good results. Intersting article on Singapore elections, Semiconductors , equipment producers AMT buys Varian, announcing consolidation wave to counter stronger bargaining power of larger semis producers ( INTC, Samsung), DRAM in Mobile phones matters, interesting explanation of industry evolution where ASML leader and link to INTC vs AMR Holdings latest semiconductor architecture more energy efficient and performing, Sweden Volvo and Saab bought by China no big deal but nordic pragmatism. Interview to Mihir Worah, physicist from berkley laboratory , detected formula for detecting anitmateria outcomes , now responsible for total return portfolio by PIMCO, claims that Raw Materials will shape inflationary expectation and central banks monetary policies in the next 10 years.
11.5.11
first page : on defence of eur zone, politics needs to devise clever solutions for debt restructuring , sic prof in hamburg, next page critic of greece, needs to restructure its debt ,2012 budget, markets discount 50 to 70% of funding capabilities
chf overvalued sic sarasin
swiss firms: swisslife pension business improving, abb buys software firm. Stock market , pharma up after commodities sell-off, abb in purchase mood well positionned for infrastructure investments
foreign firms : Man group buy LGL but sill down
usa manuifacturing http://bloom.bg/mSpYbn
basel 3 , moody's assesment postive , weaker banks not meeting these criteria will be taken over . In the meantime Rating agencies downgrade Greece to B, EU financial package of 110 bio will work only till 2012, after this split views on the crisis exit, markets panic. strong chf, a blessing or a curse, emblematic at th curent stage, usual targets.
Stockmarkets, MSFT buys Skype, Infineon buys back shares, Hotel Groups doing well in the uk, what abt tourism in the uk ( IHS)
Mexico, Slimm probed by antitrust, Embraer good results.
Nick Hayek complains about watch quality regulation, threatens to move away.
Strength of CHF affects insurance company Zurich exposed to the USA. Swisslife 30% pension funds business returns 7%, tornos mechanical small company outperforming, Micronas swiss high tech, good article, buy recommendation, Swiss Socialist Party and Financial regulation debated in the Parliament, ABB buys Austrailian software company for mining, Tecan Med Tech worth waiting, once again article on tax reform of companies.
Article on AIG, its rescue more expensive than Greece, American real estate could fall 10% more according to Robert Schiller, Munich Re affected by Japanese crisis but well positionned over there, Sony and Apple or Golia vs David although market cap shrinked. Sony affected by data stolen by hackers , Anonymous, in their online games, stock declined 19%, Embraer and other Brasilian companies diversifying in defense industry,
MARKET STRATEGY: 16 IDEAS FOR 25% RETRACE. We remain constructive on equities, while acknowledging the mounting headwinds to the thesis: (i) higher oil; (ii) end of QE2; (iii) Japan disruptions; (iv) Washington budget battles; and (v) peripheral Europe. Investors remain largely cautious, which, when combined with active manager underperformance and positive inflows, points to managers being “pulled into equities.” Moreover, we expect markets to be flattish June-Sept (for reasons noted) but still see 1250 on 3/15 as the “low for the year.” Our screen identified low P/E ideas from those 3 sectors. The tickers are WFC, HPQ,
PNC, ALL, PRU, MET,HIG, AFL,
SYMC, CA, RIMM, RTN, INTC,
FDX,ETN,CSX
15.5.2011
article main page , monetary policy central banks too diverse, unusual plummeting of raw materials and pressure on raising interest rates
article on the new estate law. Switzerland domiciles affected by US estate succession in absence of a bilateral agreement
sectorial allocation has begun, it will last. JNJ outperformned with ROG. They quote conservative strategist and deflationary risks mixed to increased rates. So, increase cash or go with Nestle, ROG,MSFT,ORCL,PG, Astra Zeneca. raw materials will keep up in spite of sudden correction. Worst case scenario is china hard landing and the usd .
Swiss markets, financial sector affected also by debate on capital ratios regulation in parliament ( Greece matters too). financials r dong very bad this year, yet again, Insurance included. Schmolz & Bickenbach up after Arcelor + peers good results . Luxury goods positive as usual.
Fixed Income , bonds on Clariant 3.125% and 5.125% Perpetual on Scor. Rumors more India in the CHF market. SNB hostage of the crisis. Currency stronger than eur is sloty, rates up at 4,25%
YHOO lost even more ,the stupid J Chang cannot capitalise on Alibaba which is divesting its best parts to founder for fire sale prices. Retail, Macy's up 14pc. Kohl, Nordstrom, up as well. Raw material companies and oil down. Germany RWE doen at 42.81 although dividend will be paid. Btelcom turnaround in good shape. Arcadis, -4pc, infrastructure investment. Cameco down at cad 25, delievries problem, Canada mining companies down. Saab bouhgt by China, Spain convertible PescaNova 5.125 2017, 27 premium, 0,47 correlation stock, pescanova stock good performance.
Company focus , Tullow Oil, focused in Africa.
Tim Summers replacing Kuznetsov , Vekselberg Buddy, at the helm of Oerlikon
Analysis of lobby for milder capital ratios in Bern, CS claims capital ratio figures proposed in parliament excessive and higher than UBS, astray from Expert commission by them supposedly controlled. Long Iter, wait till fall, in the meantime FINMA will double check.
Schaffner ,extraordinary company + development
Interview to the author of the fault lines, India Econ Prof Rajan, importance of social netwroks missing in the USA paid off by monetary policy, education for innovation and manufacturing jobs, problem of emerging mrkts dependence on overheated demand in america, rela estate boom used to smooth the divergence btw rich and poor in the USA in the past 20 years. Winner of the goldman sachs financial times prize, reviews of http://seekingalpha.com/article/224630-book-review-fault-lines-how-hidden-fractures-still-threaten-the-world-economy-by-raghuram-g-rajan , http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9111.html , http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66951/raghuram-g-rajan-mathias-dewatripontjean-charles-rochetjean-tiro/fault-lines-how-hidden-fractures-still-threaten- http://www.brookings.edu/events/2010/0621_fault_lines.aspx , http://www.sbe.co.uk/SBEBookReviews/tabid/82/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/255/Fault-Lines-How-Hidden-Fractures-Still-threaten-the-World-Economy.aspx
Good results of steel companies however problem of volatile prices, telefonica confirms year end results in spite of profits 2% down
Interview to Standard and Chartered Chief econmist claims that the West can learn from Asia, of course the financial aid package during Asian crisis is history, CHINA problem, slower growth, higher inflation.
Interview to star inv manager pease who contributed to shipwrek of henderson, back to business.
Disucssion on raw materials crash. Interesting chart showing how historicallly bad invetsment
18.5.2010
Greece brady plan to avoid Lehman scenario, sic Barry Eichengreen article
Google issues debt, watch out, GS recommends Spanish banks debt ( covered), ML triple B cycliocals in USD, conclusion, refinancing need r high , there is time and more opportunities ahead.
SMI, lot of coverage of medtech, sonova,ypsomed and tecan ,all at their lowest, Clariant target price chf 27 from UBS, is it serious?, Swisslife take over unlikely stock loosens up
Iceland upgrade to BB+, Greece forced privatisation and free willing restructuring r the options, debt at 16%, Portugal at 8pc. Eur/usd below 1.40 ? issuance of coveredonds icnreasing , leaves unsecured bond investors more insecure.
NYC , orthopedic industry consolidation, JNJ Synthes and Stryker Orthovita
Europe, commerzbank below eur 4, EAS BAE swap? ,
fuw 18.05.2010
schmolz bickenbach, specialisd steel producer form switzerland
ips , mechanical engineering group, risk venture stock, extremely specialised and innov. Long history of success and failures , now back
megatrends in towns , usual companies benefiting , also utx, siemens, and abb
syngetha , affected by strong chf , 250?
coco funds , swiss canto, mirko interview to fund manager, buy fund , 8-10% yield ?
Portugal funds agreeemnt , Greece twds debt restructuring
vodafone gbp, well potionned for emerg markets and dta transmission
sprint and ericsson , mobile equipmnt for data transmission
silver speculation 80s ended with sell off following regulation changes, today same ?
Fuw 21.5.2011
st galler bank cio negative,
spreading of debt crisis from the periphery to the centre, only exit is growth.
Credit suisse recommended to buy by dbank, target 48
floating rate notes in order to pair short term rate risk,
gloomy gsachs scenario on usd , sluggishness , eur at 1.45-1.50 in spite of crisis. Yuan and eur will replace usd
economic recovery stuttering, linkedin listing= social media euphoria, xin much cheap valuation
China inflation, power shortages, evergreen rallies, ema funds flow out,
Thomas Signer portraet , interesting profile of a writer who worked in finance and is now independent. Lives with his 92 years old father. Schreibender ex banker.
Interview to dsm chief, autoindustry bodes well for chemical company, bought vitamin busness of roche , suffers from strong chf and well psitioned in china, life science and material company with zero debt.
SGL carbon , VW buy participation.
BP negotiations with Rosneft
Unbelievable , Hilderbrand candiadte for IMF position, Lagarde deemed a specialist of finance.
Felix Zulauf, feared and respected hf manager from CH, expects correction of 20% on SP500
article on vietnam, high inflation, state conglomerates,
Gold price, room upwards, in spite of interest rates up, what matters is real rates in inflationary environment,
fuw 25.5.011
smart grids investments
China out of control
Greece to be or not to be , default or not, strike btw parties
Initiative SVP against free movmt of ppl in Switzerland
SMI, financial all year low , Sonova further down, Giorgio Behr GF and SIA proft of chf 36 mio
Swiss life perpetual bond, chf credits in easterne europe, timing bomb, let themd efaultg , will be good for weaker chf? Sharp consequences in Hungary. Price water house study. Credit rating Hungary down, OTP bank suffers. downgarde of cresit agricole ,linked 2 greece and italy by sp. Meanwhile Danthine SNB instructs students of st galen finance school on the fallacity of financial models quoting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wilmott , cool, discussion on reglation , the summary of past excesses and the abuse of roe concept , simply leverage. http://epaper.fuw.ch/front/detail/48105_5 ARTICLE, INTEREST rates needed to be high to avoid this cyclical upsurge of credit as in austrian theory ( see also dr doom faber blog and arguments ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory http://blog.mises.org/2657/mark-faber-on-his-austrian-views/ greenspan conundrum
America: tsco, tractor supply , retail for agriculture , dupont, Boston scientific, ST Jude, Agilent and MDT down .
Ashes not good for airplane companies , check UAL.
Latin america, brasil cheap, banks ? Techint and Tenaris under gvmt pressure in Argentina, dividend not paid to board members!
Soros contrarian , sells gold.
Smart grids : Comverge, Enernoc, Ruggedcom, Usual large caps, abb siemens, schneider,ge
Sonova down the gutters ,
Roche and cancer research
study disturbing findings, turkey, greece , italy , tscheck republic top swiss banks deposits. Author focuses only on sweden as a high tax country with low deposits. Lack of further data.
Energy efficient fund, interview to Andres Gujan.
Russia udnerperforming BRIC.
Swiss Franc overvalued not against the eur, yes against the usd
china the next bubble as the usa, sic dylan grice alternative strategist of socgen
BHP, uranium deposit discovery linked to nuclear power development in australia can make it one of the largest producers if authorised to exploit it. Stock worth.
Commezbank, new issue of stock and capital dilution, operations well positionned
Russeel Napier , CLSA stratgist and financial market historian,anatomy of the bear, private sector overdebt, his mate Andrew Smithers calling for an end of debit rates deduction. June end of quantitave easing yb FED , expect the 10 years rate go from 3.1 to 4.5% at least. It follows a depreciation of stock values with sp500 at 400. However he does not speak abt currency value.
Sri Lanka article
Ben Bernanke
http://www.newsweek.com/2008/10/18/the-money-man.html
and times ? http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1946375_1947251_1947520,00.html
28.5. 2011
nuclear energy, discussion of swissmen ( against) and eichenberg from http://www.crema-research.ch/index.htm open as long as there are no subventions http://www.crema-research.ch/index.htm , several other articles on nuclear energy.
Einhorn HF manager criticises Balmer of msft, under scrutiny csco and rimm as well. UBS divesting Investment bank in Singapore, authorities there need to thank Swiss gvmnt.
Bonds: enel finance 2015 in chf and eur
Discussion on regulatory framework at the cente of austrian economics foundation in vaduz,
forecasts usd/ hf and eur/chf .
EXR extr space storage store business listed in the stock market
canada mining stocks up, copper stocks as well ( bhp, rtp, kazakhs,antofagasta).
Son left behind, Nokia at 4.8 8 years low , technology blody lesson, bet only on lean companies following the trend with a good innovative pipeline. Nokia did not have a clue on what lied ahead and lost the train on tanslation.Disastr and no project, Hiring a fomer MSFT does not help at all, on the contrary. It takes a bold visionary view to redress the company. Lenovo great results.
Zickert Gebote der Finanzkunst.buy only market friendly stocks
Switzerland and Germany out of nuclear. Energy efficient stocks following ban on nuclear energy , aixtron,abb, schneider, philips. See also article and charts on Meyer Burger , Schaffner, Gurit.
Robin hoods , investment amangers association in Switzerland udner regulatory pressure
Ypsomed , einstieg zu frueh.
Discussion of strafrecht and the busse and der post . A company , sa cannot eb punished , an individual yes. Howeevr fines can be levied.
An analyst positive on banking and insurance stocks, Rainer Skierka.
Article on us banks hit by credit slump. Takes a long time and patience.Artcicle on GS , Blankfein and senator Carl Levin, senate commission accusing GS of having lied on its short positions on real estate.
Interview to INTC chief financial officer, gowth in mobile devices
article on german biotech, morphosys, wilex,
Philip Morris discovers a nicotine spray, IMF battle btw Lagarde and LatinAmerican CARSTEN FROM mEXICO.
El Erian very negative on global economy, sends warnings on the complexity or impossibility of cutting unmployment, refers to sputnik moment as a unification consensual posiibility for adressing the domestic problems.
1.6.2010
Michael Pettis, china yuan did not appreciate at all, only 5%, inflation increasing, real rates down, necessary reallocation from labor to capital intensive economy to improve productivity.
Article by Peter Morf atacking the parliament who refuses to cut costs and ammends the law on corporate tax.
10 years below chf 2, climbing to 2.3%, chf bonds on clariant , abn amro, swisslife and holcim finance international
ICMA; complaints against EU imposing investment ceilings up to eur 250k for low rade invetsment bonds.
E.ON disgraced by German gvmnt in search of funds , shut nuclear stations by keeping same tax rate increase. Solar stocks funded by subsidies are the ones benefiting. Stock pickijng includes market regulation. It is defensive but given its domestic implanation is one of the favorite targets of the gvmnt. Curiously , multinationals and ecommerce social media companies can escape to the claws of big brother and become recession proof. See f.ex google and appl.
Convertibles XS0632138961 aabar into daimler 2016
Insurance, europe driven like swisslife doing better than global ones exposed to Japan earthquake.
Logitech, kein Kauf
Interesting figures on banking earnings in switzerland, offshore banking 78%, asset maagement only 9%
UBS Bubble Index on Swiss reale state , not yet at 1990s levels. A lot of new home purchasing.
Swiss domestic grwoth slows down but exports keep goning, why ? Riddle. Economist of imf and bns contradicting themselves on elasticity of exports vs currency strength.
Sustainable portfolio , article of a pcitet expert.wow
Gold and central banks . Russia, thailand and mexco buying it. What fi japan and china? Interestign figures on usd world reserves , 61pc compared to 15% of USA world GDP.
Greece, reforms gaining momentum, privatisations and liberalisation as in Italy, assets in state enterprises land and real estate worth 300 bio to cover total debt. Drachma reversion ruled out. Expecting greek successfull diaspora to come back given new business regulatoryx framework. Greek bank helathy balance sheet in lack of US subprime and Ireland leveraged interbanking deals affected by exposure to Greek insolvent debt debt with hefty losses .
Martin Feldstein economist, former Reagan advisor, argues the opposite. Take it out temporarily from EU to regain competitivity through devaluation.
Symantec and the hacker attacks. A business opportunity.
Fuw , 8.6.2010
Thorsten Hens, Dimson , Marsh and Staunton, triumph of optimists . Bob Shiller volatility of stock market higher than gdp, Amos Tversky , nobel prize with Daniel Kahneman
title , nokia nageschlagen aber nicht ko. Wiondows alliance before aqdroid gives opportunity to upgarde he software.
Swiss market , cyclicals like holcim under pressure , sonova recommended by chevreiux,
A macroprudential approach to financial regulation , journal of econoic perspectives, continuation. Not only bnks but also disocunt brokers and others need to be regulated for their leverage capacity.
switzerland virtuous cycle? As long as low rate ignite mortgage demand , then domestic fuelled growth , etc. , etc.
According to peterson institute in wasington , chf/usd = 0.78. aud, brl overvalued.
Usa stock market, education stocks, corinthian colleges , apollo group, strayer education.
Bearer shares in switzerland and the urge of dismantling them by oecd. Aktienfuhrer 2011 , details on the sharegholder structure of corporate switzerland. Reminder of hosw blocher tried to dismantle it in 2006 when minister but met opposition of financial industry.
MARKETS STRATEGY, volatility icnreaes , slow down discounted but overall trend is up . Avoid cyclicals and industrials, switch into defensive.
Strong recommendation for burckhardt , late cyclcal
switzerland : regional banks are losing steam
bearer shares, the fuw in favor, of course , argument : the banks know their clients.
Facts , insurers need also to disclose data on bo.
Interview to k. Rogoff on eu, obvious remarks but uttered by a genius : eu does not have majortiy rule which makes decisions difficult at the unanimity.
Portugal elections, right wing govmnt wins, former entrepreneur , 46y, promises to heal the house budget before borrowing.
Peru, Umala left wing wins, stock market crashes. EPU , ETF , Compania Minas Buenaventura and Southern Copper heavily down. ( pcu) http://seekingalpha.com/article/144786-ishares-peru-etf-heavily-concentrated-in-materials-single-names + http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-06/peruvian-mining-stocks-plunge-as-humala-claims-election-victory.html
Double dip in the USA, the risks are there after poor data on labor attesting the slowest recovery since the greatd epression. but Benni positive. No sign of 3rd QE, check the industrial capacity figures, amy preannounce a slow down.
Glencore with xstrata ?
Tepco bankrupt?
Those who advise the central banks to sell gold, rbs nick moore, cyclicity of raw materials highlighted.
FUW , 4.6.2010
article on VSPB ( Verein Schweiz Privat Bankier), Konrad Hummler led, complaints on stifling regulation generating paper work, criticism to FINMA, quoting Lugano convention to defend against MIFID principle to make swiss banks accountable vis a vis foreign clients rather than their home country. Criticism of bilateral agreemnts lack of reciprocity where foreigners tap ch markets but cthe oppposite not possible.
While OECD praises Swiss effort for fiscal reciprocity , Bearer share issue still open and VSPB warns against inetreference reminding unlawful steal of data.
article of marco passardi, prf uni, on finma , ubs crisis, heavy criticism of hatiner, banking regulatiojn and role of parliament dimished agiant executive powers of gvmnt during crisis, need to restore parliament control.
Banking regulation , does Basel III stymie lending. This is the new argument of bnking association, quantitative easing endangered. Howevder accroding to economists better credit allocation ndertaken with lower risks and more value.See lead article March 2d. Adnat Admati quoted in Fallacies , irrelevant facts and myths in the discussion of capital regulation, Barro and Miles explain how normalised returns does not tak into account fat tail events like 15% GDP drop observed every 80 years rather than 600. discussion of merton modigliani model on leverage and capital risk correlation
Companies swimm in cash flow, shares buy back, dividend increase or m&a, see sika , bucher
Swisscanto bond invest coco
Interview to Alcatel ceo, turnaround story
Mediclinic, south african clinic group that took over hirsladen,privatisation of health care in s africa
China no hard landing, a cpouple of telephone call to state owned banks enough to reactivate credit !
OC Oerlikon , coverage article, solar panels,
Alan Levenson, T.Rowe Price
1-2% contribution to growth by housing , right now oversupply that will be absorbed in 2 years , after which resumption of nromal housing growth according to population , currently 50% lower. QE2 was to avoid deflation , now QE3 is not necessary. Inflation low cause high unemployment. The guy is optimistic, like Plato. He eared a Ba in Philo.
Inzteresting work of art on swiss engineered watches,accumulation by arman http://epaper.fuw.ch/front/index/15503
WSJ , 8.6.2011
chart with higheste xposure of greek debt, Germany ,France, UK in sequence
ECB July rate rise
prosecutors targetting lawyers in the usa
australia keeps rates steady, growth concerns, aud/usd concern , 7% overvalued
high food prices pose threat to poor nations
Chinese investments in EU not supervised by regulatory comission
security tokes take hit ,
facebook and co backing merger btw att and t mobile
regulation starting on July 16, disarray for derivatives trading, new rules= grey areas
germany, real estate development good, aging pop moving to big towns
usa commercial real estate reahces its peak, sales increas, rush out given insecurity.
Ecb rises rates, eur/usd 1.50
Martin Feldstein pontificates
FUW 08.06.11
Uster expects good year
Online mortgages launched by swissquote
risks of a double dip reappear
Sulzer hit by strong chf, Helvea reduces esttimates and rating to neutral, target 175. Burckhardt follows.
Greece default problem or restructuring, how the banks will book it ? IMF Lagarde seeking nomination at IMF , of course so French banks can negotiate better the restrudcturing package involving privatisation.
Island , new bond issue?
ATT has problems to psass its merger with T mobile,old instinct prevail ( history) but new analysis stops from seeing real monopoly of social media. Pathetic regulation. Deutsche telecom purchase of hellenic telecom delayed. Bank stocks performing very poorly, disaster of c and bac. GM pay back its debt to the gvmnt and makes profit again. Their hands r free. Gvmnt preoccupied only with financial institutions.
Latin America, check America Movil, Homex and Urbi
arcelor 2014 convertible with put protection 7.25% put at eur 20, lower volatility , lower premiums
Die Wahrheit liegt zwischen zwei extremen aber nicht in der Mitte, so true for the markts, where will they end up, very likely witha double dip, egneral slow down.
Credit crisis of 1918.
Abbott Laboratories , coverage article.
WSJ
bank of ireland, gvmnt restructuring its junior debt , tier2 securities, what kind of debt is it the one in chf .
Prof Sinn of IFO German Institute against bail out through START system of PIGS. Countered by ex. Of Lehman Bros loss by Bundesbank absorbed by Eurosystem partners. ECB creating liquidity for short term loans following demise of PIGS bank. Credit allocation is actually benefiting Germany which should restrain it in a period of booming. Failure of German banks to allocate well its capitals both in the USA and Southern countries.
China property prices down faster , copper and metal prices follow. What nex, will growth falter? Banks issuing yuan bonds allowed to reinvest the proceeds in mailand chinna higher bond yields.
Martin Fucking Feldstein, the economy is worst than you think, former reagan advisor speaking.
Hungary nationalist right wing government in a expansionary keynesian policy to create jobs. What about huf ?
BP deal with rosneft is over constrained by TNK agreeement.
Sterling could be hit further, risks to lose is triple a investment grade. Buy usd !
Germany wants greek bonds roll over , rated as default then triggers credit crisis in lack of collateral.
Fuw, 11.06.2010
Bilateral negotiations with Germany for declaring hiiden goods in Switzerland risk to fail if concessions without anything in exchange, as f.ex protection of stolen data, of private bankers , access to FINMA.
Konrad Humler , president of the Swiss Private Banking association calls for a unified strategy for the Swiss Financial Platform, and highlights how during the crisis there were two banks, those backed by government and those not. criminalisation of secret banking with end of distinction btw money fraud and money hiding? Too big to fail regulation has implications also for the private banks forced to icnrease their capital ratios.
American gvmnt pressing switzerland to deliver details on american clients , credit suisse may be next victim. A fine of billions and information delivery is demanded by amercan gvmnt.
Bonds in chf PKO Finance 3.5% 2011.
According to BAK withiout the 10 poc appreciation the grwoht would have been of 4% , emerging market rate! Economie Suisse forecasts lower unemployment rate at 3%. Econimie Suisse, the strong franc prompts the deinsutrialsiaiton of Switzerland! Overheating of the real estate sector!
Brazil, Poland , South Korea increase rates, Serbia cuts to 12%
BAD REVIEW ON BANKS. Credit Suisse and UBS
Textile sector , cyclical, negative prudent rating.
Unternehmensteuerreform II , Kapitaleinlageprinzip or no tax on buy back shares opposed by the left, interview to Rolf Schweiger, MP form Zug, buy. Prognosen per definitionem nich exact sein koennen.
Gysi, foreign private bankers swiss union , business is good, ususal recomendations against state interference.
Interview, no double dip, buy shares, in particualr total, sanofi. Usual positive feedback from equity specialist.
Peter oppenheimer, gsaqchs strategist, usd will be weaker , rates unchanged until 2013, Raw materials prics up howeevr end markets will suffer bcs margins shrink. Central banks measure work, inflation fades away by lae summer, prefers China and Russia, GS favorites Pmorris, Telefonica, ABB, Swatch, Santander,
Greek debt, German Schauble prompting debate, to restructure or not , this is the question and what does restructuring mean, default? Swap into 7 years bonds rather than reinvest the proceedings from maturities as agreed by Trichet but Draghi drags his heels and asks for the issue to be debated by the EU parliament. rating agencies threat of utter default if restructuring, feared by central bank given collateral from spanish, irish and greek banks used for market liquidity operations It results a strong debate which although perilous may just reinforce the legittimacy of the EU institution and the understanding of te rating agencies role.
Is Germany in an AlleinGang? Refusal to enter in the Lybian war and Merkel comparison to a big small Switzerland.
Intercell, biotech compnay, fllng star, Novartis bought 15% for eur 37, now at eur 4. failure in development of blockbuster vaccines , low stock price triggers massive dilution of issued convertible bond.
PG coverage article
Bank of Ireland debt restructring , implications not clear in the article. Whch debt ?
MSCI Africa lagging behing emerging markts
Hedge fund against JTI lagging behind PhilMorris . Gvmnt main sharholder, no share buy back. Japan earthquake negative impact on results.
Gibraltar, country review. Success sory, low taes 4 growth, of course , its is a financial hven stupid.
Fuw 15-6-2011
wir brauchen die auslaender, starrag werkzeug maschine
Daniel Gross, European Polic center, CRDIV, new rules for banking capital ratios affect only private sector , not public one. Banbks will lend more money to gvmnts than small medium enterprises ending up like Greek banks , erased by the gvmnt default.
Another article on chf strength, highlight bns dielemma anjd ris of a global slowdown hitting exports. Gsachs estmate eur/chf 1.42.
Tepco taken over by Japanese gvmnt, shorters squeezed out after change of rules.
Germany, metro shares , Telefonica and B Santander under pressure
Strength of chf benefiting importers of goods and not consuemrs! petrol price the same everywhere, why?
Sonova article, no buy, very prudent, sonetek start up in hearing systems
Actelion hampered by strong chf, step in according to FUW
Insurance well prepared for paring losses of greece credit default?
Valartis russia fund managr favorites: x5, sberbank and novatek. Is the bear viktor linked to his bank?
Glencore pays 10% taxes on its income
Greece and tourism , Piraeus Port Authority,Folli Follie. ISRAEL, rUSSIA AND China amid new clients
ft.16.6.11
housing , rent inflation, 2-4% increase in the enxt 5 years
Ft
ireland senior bonds non gvmnt guaratee to take hair cut ( allied irish)
china tigthens lending, developers in trouble, price competition to sell inventory, justice mpovmnts in china fr harsh labor conditions
Schauble against socialising the losses of Greece , investors need to take losses.
Derivatives exchange reforms, end of otc, inetresting article on the risks of central platforms bail out,good summarising chart. Jeremy grant frinancial reform
business lessons from crime scene, emma jacobs .
News of africa investmens spreadingHelios , private equity fund helios iases usd 1bio
UK bank reform, pretect depositors like in Ireland h an economic cost nd a political gain.
Fears grwoing over Turkey debt . Roach, US consumers compared to Japanese zombie economy : not kicking in. wrong measures with quantitative easing, so what should u do? Before criticising tight japanese policy, now what? Export led economies affected.
Private investors shorting us treasuries, central banks buying, bet that slowdown only transitory
covered banks replacing off balance sheet securitization while owering guarantees for other credits linked to balance sheet assets, conservative MEP Vicky Ford warns.
The country is more like a Middle Eastern oil autocracy than a buddin European democracy, writes Charles Clover
Financial reforms slow to reach Moscow, Efforts to diversify the economy have been blocked, says Catherine Belton
ethical banking, sustainable banking
Regulation Can tougher rules end the boom and bust cycle? Brooke Masters reports
Gary silverman on puerto rico
south south tradce increasing
Evgeny Morozov on fake Lesbian and syria, the net delusion
cloud computing, google and apple
on Lex Nokia deemed dead , in the gallows, whereas RIMM fighting for life. So much can apple or just a gigantic mystification enhanced by its journalist friends
It looks like British press wishes bad luck to EU and Greece, they shouéld care more abt their problems. Not a single postive or constructive article , all pages tainted with a dark omen. Disgraceful.
AWP RPT/PRESSE/CS: un client va devant le Tribunal fédéral dans l'affaire Lehman
22.06.11 05:21:05- AWFB
répétition de la veille
Berne (awp) - Un client de Credit Suisse (CS) a décidé de porter le
litige qui l'oppose à la banque dans l'affaire des titres Lehman devant le
Tribunal fédéral. C'est ce qu'a révélé mardi soir la
télévision régionale bernoise "Telebärn".
En septembre 2008, Hugo Rey a perdu 50'000 CHF avec des titres Lehman. Il fait
partie des clients de CS qui ont refusé une indemnisation proposée
par la banque et l'ont poursuivie en justice. Le tribunal de commerce de Berne
a rejeté sa plainte le 25 août 2010. Il a donc décidé de
porter l'affaire jusqu'au Tribunal fédéral, selon "Telebärn".
cc/mk/jq/rp
attack on karachi naval base http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13495127
fuw18.6.2011
usa succession tax, switzerland lacks a paragraph in its bilateral agreements that grants immunity from taxation as in other countries. Revision takes time.
CEO Stadler,Peter Spuhler, railway manufacturer, MP, against chf appreciation
SNB 0 % interest rates, powerless in front of eur faltering and swiss real estate bubble. Raiffeisen bank very exposed , higher rates = losses . SNB asks quick implementation of 19% criteria ,while markets crumble for chf appreciation and banks stocks are further derpessed. Opinion that chf strength deleterious for exports starts to take roots, see roche , banks and cyclicals.
Ams buys taos, it invetsment in mobile computing
lack of investments in biotech veture cap( wagnisfinanzierer)
Swiss Banks income higher, lower deposits.
Interview to basf ceo, imporessive performance form eur 40 in 2010 to 60 in 2011
article on bernanke, confriuming his quantitative easing through bonds purchases, usd depreciates more , stock mrkts balk at undecision in washington on budget cap.
Banking regulation, uk, retail banking must be insulatd from other activities.
ECB , Greek crisis, Yannis Varoufakis same idea as Prat , transfer the debt to the ECB, credit spreads will drop. Draw a parallel with the US banking system and the federal reserve history.
Chinese unreliable small caps. Sino forest fraud
article on gas , eden ahead. Nuclear crisis helps.
ft,22.6.2011
alfonso prat gay, latin lessons for a classic eurozone recovery or how to restgructure greek debt withiout defaulting.dilemma btw legittimacy and efficiency in the eu.
Sarana, opposition leader of Greece , to vote against austerity plan.Dmostehenes , Pericles and demagocical power.
Martin feldstein, reagan advisor now in harvard, again slashing greece ( is in switzerland ineterest to jmoin him?)while FT lex argues that transfer of debt to sovreign EU would make the trick (/ euro all in this together june 23 2011).see also mechanism of fiscal transfers. rating agencies dilemma , what is a default , will be crucial, menawhile moodys pursues its crusade and downgardes italy, remember the criminal subprimemess ? Also, cds may explode , who owes what and to wom riddle liok in aig problem. ( see david oakley in ft june 24) .Germany and unwilling private investors ( mainly french and german banks) to take their share in the restructuring by rolling over greece liabilities. In this bonfire of vanities , puraility of opinions surge and come together to threaten the evry stability of the system, while Greece clouds choice of new IMF leader, according to manag director Batista from Brazil , to appoint Lagarde is tantamount to put a debtor in charge of a bank Donald Tusk emerges as savy leader highlighting poland path to recovery in the 80s. Unity and attitudes of polish people + support of eu were key to success . Not today. O yes, deelterious national inetrest reminderdeleterious dynamc tht started IWW. Draghi doubts and Binaghi resignation.
CHF always appreciating, Hfunds at work, what Hilderbrandt is doing, no intervention, silver specualtion constraints could teach?
China inflation reined in, good but at what cost , econ slow down, not god for the usa, if only a stronger yuan could help to import more , however chinese afraid of losing competitivity and above all problem with their unemployment rate. Similar blueprint as Japan in the past.. ai weiwei , chiense artist released, remember reagan and the great satan, so longago, china forgotten case. China cheap yuan, means working for the rich neighbor usa and builing a chinese hermetic wall against barbarian financial turmoils.trade openess of china to foreign interests was attested only when monghols took over as marco polo well attests. The dynastic interests today concentrated in the comunist party make the castle walls necessary. It is in their history and culture.
Lenovo think centre, copy of eee pc. How asians are smart in copying siliconm valley technology. Get the ebst by sending their graduates to amercian laboratories and universities and bringing back their secrets. Same technology tansfer happened before in the silk road btw china the middle east and europe. Silk secret difficult to keep , particularly at ties of decline as happened with china in the past. Reassertion of gideons maxim , decline starts from within. Jesuists in China attested to the splendor of sino civilisation before a dogmatic reactionary reversal and mionghol invasions ( see Louce Bolnois ). However for centuries chinese kept silk secfret and their competitive edge whereas americans lose their silicon edge much quicker thanks to their openess. repulsion of the congress against chinese investment in america contradictory. Meanwhile volvo sold to chinese. Welcome money. Keep secrets? Motto , flctuat nec mergitur sic economic times.
Demographic and pension funding problem highlighted by imf to sideline stanley fischer cose 65.
shareholder vALUE increasing i1
us state start probe into google dominance
amazonia deforestation continues, biofuels subsidies arfe distoring agricultural prices, letter to the ft, employ money spent in trivial wars to focus in genius/ einsteins breeding and new technology discoveries like space traveling rather than creating games for financial gambling. We re stuck in the stone age with rocket fuel technology , we need more to preserve human species in the future
ztech, le
Barron's(6/20) Profile: Thinking Ahead
18.06.11 05:03:00- APIN
(From BARRON'S)
By Bob O'Brien
David Eiswert's preschool-age daughter taught herself how to tell time in an
hour, using an iPad.
Prodigy? Well, no. Telling time isn't quite as tough as playing a piano
concerto. Still, most of us needed a few days of kindergarten schooling to
master a clock. And, let's be honest, some of us still don't know how to tell
time.
"It's extremely efficient," Eiswert says, "for the educational process to move
to the digital world."
Extremes mean a lot to him. Eiswert is the portfolio manager of the T. Rowe
Price Global Technology Fund (ticker: PRGTX). And his basic belief can be
boiled down to: "We think technology is about extreme outcomes. And we want to
be on the right side of that extreme outcome."
What constitutes an extreme outcome? Imagine, he says, that it's 2002. E-mail
is blossoming into a key avenue of information distribution. But it is largely
an office-based, PC-centric solution. Imagine if, at that time, you'd
anticipated that some day, everyone would need a BlackBerry, he says. You'd
have bought Research In Motion (RIMM). And, by mid-2008, your 2002 investment
of $2 per share would be worth almost $150.
"The way we win the war is to be on the right side of change," Eiswert says.
One of Eiswert's key themes is mobility, which is part of why Apple (AAPL) is
the fund's largest holding. Granted, mobility doesn't sound like bleeding-edge
technology. Almost nobody sits down to lunch in a restaurant these days without
putting a mobile device on the table.
But, thinking of it as Eiswert does, mobility seems critical: By his
estimation, there are roughly 2.5 billion prospective technology customers in
the world. As of now, only 600 million of them can afford technologies like
mobile computing. "That means that more than three times as many people who are
currently not a technology consumer are going to -- someday -- become a
technology consumer," Eiswert says. "And, the follow-through to that, is that
the enterprises that service these consumers, from a retail shop to a bank, are
all going to have to adopt IT as those consumers adopt IT," he says.
Mobile products are a world-wide phenomenon. The T. Rowe Price Global
Technology Fund, which holds as many as 100 stocks at a time, has 35% to 40%
are from companies based outside the U.S.
"To be a good technology investor, you have to have a good imagination,"
Eiswert says. Imagine, for instance, a world in which everyone has a
smartphone. Then imagine what that means, for example, to a company like
Twitter.
Since Eiswert took over management in October 2008, the fund, which has $548
million in assets, has returned 76%, versus 16% for the Standard & Poor's 500
over that time. From the bottom of the recent market cycle, in March 2009, the
global tech fund is up 160%, handily beating the S&P's 97% return.
Eiswert's largest holdings, in addition to Apple, include big technology names
with leading-edge characteristics, such as Qualcomm (QCOM), which makes up
nearly 5% of the portfolio, and Google (GOOG), slightly more than 3.5%. At
about 3% each, Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea), and Tokyo Electron
(8035.Japan), a maker of semiconductor-equipment, reflect the fund's global
footprint.
The fund's research methodology eschews the old model of having an analyst
specializing in discreet technology disciplines: a semiconductor expert, for
instance, a telecom-services analyst, and a PC wizard.
Instead, analysts are sprinkled throughout the globe, become experts in the
technology leaders in their markets, and share insights and suggestions at
regular research meetings. "I'm really just the camp coordinator," Eiswert
jokes.
"We sit down with [tech company executives] and bring them insights from these
different markets," Eiswert says. "We'll say, 'We just came from Korea, and
here's what Samsung has to say about the market now.'"
One example of how the firm's global research can help provide profitable
insights is the rise of backlit handset screens and flat-panel television
displays with LED (light-emitting diode) technology. When Eiswert's analysts
recognized the trend in 2009, LEDs lit maybe 2% of television displays. Last
year, that figure rose to 35%. This year, it's near 65%. Rubicon Technologies
(RBCN), a maker of sophisticated crystal components for LEDs, figured to
benefit so the fund bought it, as well as Germany's Aixtron (AIXG).
Technology investing has changed dramatically in the last several years. A
decade ago, technology was a PC sitting on a desk, mirrored by the same setup
at home. Investing successfully meant buying the leaders: the best operating
system, so likely Microsoft (MSFT); the best desktop producer, Dell (DELL), and
the best chip maker, Intel (INTC).
Once companies came up with a computing device you could carry around in a
bag, "Dell's customization of the desktop essentially no longer mattered,"
Eiswert says.
The global tech fund doesn't entirely avoid the former mainstays. "There's a
portion of this portfolio where we buy things we think are just too cheap,"
Eiswert says. He likes, for instance, intellectual property. A company like
Motorola Mobility (MMI), the handset business of the old Motorola, holds 17,000
patents for technology, yet the market hasn't been giving the company its
props.
But contemporary technology investing has been revolutionized. For instance,
Google invests in developing Android, an operating system that rivals that of
Apple and even Microsoft. Then what does Google do? It gives the darned thing
away. Why? They're monetizing search, Eiswert says, not systems.
Not so Apple. Is it really selling apps? Or digital music content? No. "Do you
think when they built the original iTunes, Apple thought you'd be downloading
Angry Birds?" he asks. Apple, unlike Google, sells a system. That's different
from Amazon.com (AMZN) which, with its Kindle, sells digital content.
The remarkable thing about technology, Eiswert says, is that, while component
prices for items such as chips are declining, the average selling price of
devices has gone up. Feature-laden products command bigger prices.
"Wherever you go in the world today, everybody seems to have a mobile device
on the table," Eiswert says. "Technology is aspirational."
---
For Barron's subscription information call 1-888-BARRONS ext. 685 or inquire
online at http://www.barronsmag.com/subscription/subscription.html.
http://avaxhome.ws/ebooks/economics_finances/Institutionalwerfgsergse.html
Fuw 21.6.2011
snb neutral on chf policy after losing billions last year , gvmnt as well, only chf 24 mio disbursed for tourism. 1970S measures like negative interests deeemd useless. UBS was however rescud with gvmnt money. Curious reference to Forschungsstab not consulted.. Silver speculation. Issuance of chf debt increased fuelled by investment bnks, higher than nok. CS negative forecast on usd.
Positive article on syngentha, ready to increase dividend.
According to iht , a lot of american citizens give up theri passport given taxation.
Southern co, utility usa, good dividend
Bilateral negotiaitons around taxation wirth Germany ad France damping wealth management.
Global head equity nomura postive on japan and europe
new eu regulation on fund industry (ucits) influencing switzerland, call for a legal reform thatn improves swiss financial competitivity and strength
baidu and focus media , chinese adr with potential ?
FUW,25.6.2011
gerold buherer, ceo economie suisse, strong xhf = more innovation , funding of technical schools and tax comapny reform!
US economy fdoes not kick off,
stupid article of p beguelin on snb policy , dont be inflationary dont print money, huge losses? Just dtop nthe dividend, no mention of regulatory measures. Historical origins of bns , bank to support cantons in the spirit of federals system, however perequation finaciere already paid off these fiscal transfers.
Chf 7% SRLEV 2016
CHF 2.75% BNDES 2016
Dentsply, detal equipment, nobelbiocare swap
interview to evelyne rumpf on too big to fail. She is positive.
Julius Baer likes nok, poland, ucraine, russia, india
Von roll restructuring story, investments in new technologies such as solar panels, left behind abb and smi, new ceo oppernman supported by Von Flinck family who is losing 30% ( chf 00 mio) since buying stake. Stock uinder pressure.
High Yield Market vs Bank credits , imposing itself in Germany, Europe is smore conservative than USA when it comes to froeign funding.
IFO president Hans Werner Sinn ocne again in th limelight with criticism of refunding system of ECB tilted towards PIGS state insolvency crisis. Lak of visibility of national central banks as in Ireland where bust banks were funded by central national bank, reference to US federal system where regional banks need to clear their liabilities every year. Trichet works for further ec
Philips refocusing going on, solid financials howeevr in difficulty,another casualty down the road, the only winner is ecommerce and social media which reap the yields from advertising. To copy electronics has become a kid game.
Japan very cheap after earthquake, invest in alternative energies ! Kyocera, mitsubishi heavy industries,yamatake
Philippines very good.
Nanotechnology and SGP
Mongolia and Mining resorces, Mongolian Minin, Southgobi resources, Centerra Gold.
Bhagwati calls for technology free trade . Ok but what about copy rights infringements , it is already hapening!
Ftimes
China economic nationalism, Wei visits Europe
schlumberger and iraq
martin wolf answer to BIS claim to fight deficit and inflation with higher rates , structural deficit will be adressed with structural surplus.
El Erian slashes Europe and he IMF asking for reforms
MSFT cloud office would open cross selling of customer database platforms competing with orcl and salesforce, not google
FUW 28.6.11
chf strength ,interview to aymo brunetti, chied economist seco, sharp currency changes are difficult to cope with in terms of restructuring. Switzerland will not be anymore a manufacturing country but a precious glass menagery , a toy cooko clock for hedge funds very fragile that will replace the added value of productive assets outsourced abroad in lack of quick impossible adjustments.Will we be left only with luxury companies with inelastic demand? Assymetrical flows and rules r hitting Swiss currency while the trade surplus balance concerns Asia and China and not the area where Switzleand is located. Free exchange rate system is certainly not a concern for SGP HK or China given their pegged currencies which was a disaster at the end of 21st c but is boon now. Shall CHF be pegged to EUR as proposed by socalists and swiss metal group? if the rules of the game are not fair why do u keep playing at tose rules, what is stopping u, the financial lobby? Singapore scares but why r thx ompetitive with their sgp pegged to the usd? Example of danish krona pegged to eur. Swatch and Biel have benefited massively of subsidies and now reaping benefits while they threaten to step out of the country if too many outsourcing hurdles.Radicals r against pegging, but we r in xceptional tomes, were they aganist rescuing ubs ?
Walter Meyer high dividend, chf, cosntruction machines , nicely priced
1.7.2011
elisabeth tester on snb, chf printing, snb in a corner , luckily we have fiscal policies still avialble. Yes , but what abt former snb policy?
Federal budget even till 2015, increase of tax income and social expenses.
UBS , Axel Weber
Finnish Pohjola Bank
Sinopharm, article, drug market in China
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals
thomas kressin, inetresting interview to pimco portfolio manager
Fink, blackrock boss worried by social riots in europe , calling for higher bank capital standards and not only austerity , 2d tarp usa version transposed to eu banks, evry confident abt usa, no problem with debt ceiling, bankrupcy like lehman = systemic risk= not affordable for politicians.
Amman at the swiss metal conference, intervention rled out, forget 1.50 of 2 years ago to come back. Signed Manfred Roesch
4.7.11
six sells its stake to deutsche boerse diluited to 15% after merger with nyse euronext, bns upset because losing control on repo operatins, monetary independence undermined?Interesting title on http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-06/how-america-ceded-capitalism-s-bastion-to-germans.html related to this theme.
Insurance groups enough capital ion stresss test. Stress test , if only it was approved later fro this turbulent age of irrational exubernace. Gvmnt and exec were against , milk the cow until u can.
Problem of real estate in zh, prices very high,
german landesbank with chf debts on watczh list of moody's, what abt the other institutes which borrowed in chf ? What is the role of the snb, is it guilty for previous moentary policy which facilitated chf lending through repo in eastern europe blocks? 2 factors , deleveraging and healthy policies undermining swiss stability.see thomas
Discusison around the stamp duty on financial transactions, does it affect swiss financial platorm?
Bns 13247022 brazil chf
covanta , compnay in recycling and energy production
tokyo electric allowed ti reopen 2 reactors!
Eastern property holdings , valrtis , stenbolt, take over at usd 50, listed in six
EU launces regulatory threat agst Moody afterPOrtugal downgrade. Schauble arguing to rbeak olipoly power of agencies.
9.7.2011
portugal junk bonds downgrade, italy under attack
ubs publishes paper criticising snb, calling for an icnrease of capital reserves. Rethrorical war goes on on the wake of bank regulation. But how they dare to crticise snb arguing that low inetrest rates and cchf strenght jeopardised. The Swiss gvmnt sticks to th libertarian orthodoxy , no protectionism or intervention, no tax reduction for hotel and export industry contemplated, thanks Aman, reminds me hoover in the great depression, the ball is passed to the snb to take care of the problem.
Retail clothing ( urban outfitters, khl), oil and equipment up together with apple in usa rally.
Russia , railways dvpmnt, alstom and siemens may profit . Transcontainer, listed freight company
13.7.2010
daniel gross, european institute, warns of greek default,with greek gdp half down after rapig growth with eu integratio and private banks debt soaring to 400% of gdp
Peter Schuppli Stahlbad fuer Anleger , opportunitaet fuer unternehmer, complains abt the bad finances of EU and USA for swiss strength . Forgets deleveraging in Eastern Europe. m&a in favor of swiss companies but whch companies, multinational ones? Anotehr dilemma.
Axel Weber successor of Villiger, let's hope there wont be anymore conflict of interests as before, while chf stronger baqnks forced to downisze labrforce given lower earnings.
End of 1990s usa helped asia to get out of its crisis , the reverse is not true right now. Manufacturing crisis= price depression , typically new technology. Similar to past cycles, amrxist critique. Agriculture bouncing back.
Those extolling the virtues of chf strength ask a gold frank ( see thomas jacob and parliament intiative) Dont they have anything better to discuss or come up with?
Michel Barnier EU intenal markets comissioner against rating agencies, Eu justice comissioner Viviane Reding against cartel
Swiss indicators in Ch back, whereas other countries up.
BIZ, sovereign debt downgarde increases refinancing bank costs.
Ursina Kubli, sarasin, purchase power parity chf undervalued 10 -20% vs chf and eur.
Bad review on real estate.
ARM Holdings, impressive performance , apple designer
Hiroshi Mikitani, founder of Rakuten, Japanese ebay, comapares business leaders of his country to the galapagos islands, afraid of competition
fuw SAYS KEEP INVESTED AMID THE STORM, CHF STRENGTH AFFECTING RESULTS, Zurich and Helvetia affected by Souther Europe
interview to gerard ransperger, swisss deflation cause of chf strength
17-7-2011
Holcim goes east, russian president and conseillers federaux assist to new factory opening. FINMA and UBS excused, Hayek speaks 4 clearer BNS goals, green and left against strong chf ( p.15 article)
Rating Agencies stocks are outperforming in spite of past mistakes! Good news for CH banks which are targetted once again by US GVMNT ( p 27). We re just losers and escape goats. Asia attractive valuation after correction ( p. 30)
EMS chemie , blocher group, does very well.
16.7.2011
finma and ubs not guilty ( p 19), uster, ems chemie good results, chf recipee , let chf exports fall. Wow! Credit suisse under scrutiny for tax evasion, same ubs scenario, thomas flury sees eur/chf 1.20/1.30 realistic, holcim buy in russia w/ putin and bundesrat @ cerimony. Left and green party for pegging currency ( p.15). Rating agencies r doing well ! Really, what abt past mistakes ? Asia , buy opportgunity after correction
20.7.2011
new ceo for sonova, schaffner chf income down , Editorial against state interventioon on chf strenght, once gaian, however arguments are biased , proposals too. p. 15 Credit suisse attacked by minister of justce ( p.20) Nigeria, promise of Africa ( p 29)
measures to fight stronger chf ; make albor work more and curb their salary
23.07.2010
Bruckhardt , margins under pressure., editorial of Thomas Straubbaar on transfer and fiscal union in the EU on the model of Switzerland.
Pharma performance.
CS does not recommend neither peg to eur nor sovereign fund proposed by UBS, however there shpoudl be an expansive policy and a clear goal, in line w/ what said by hayek. Cs is under assault by US for trivial bank acocunts and against any bilateral agreement see http://bloom.bg/nc3DZZ
CHF exports r falling vis a vis Germany, really!so what next , sould switzerland take part to greece rescue ? Sarasin always positive eur/chf 1.30 by mid of next year
CIRRUS CRUS , microchip designer depending on aapl, pe 13
good article on GE
INDUSTRIALS, TECHNOLOGY, AND FINANCIALS SHOULD DRIVE FINAL 25% RETRACE. As we noted p(see “Circle of Life: Downgrading Consumer Disc…” dated 04/01/2011), the Sectors driving the final 25% retrace histori those driving the 75% retrace (see Figure 14 to Figure 17). In the current bull market, the 3 largest contributors to point the March 2009 low are Financials (138 pts), Technology (135 pts), and Industrials (89 pts), followed closely by Disc(84 pts). The only exception to this pattern was the 1982 bull market, when Healthcare was #2 in points of 75% retrafinal 25% was led by Industrials and Basic Materials, neither a major contributor to the 75% retrace (see Figure 14).
MARKET STRATEGY: 16 IDEAS FOR 25% RETRACE. We remain constructive on equities, while acknowledging the mounting headwinds to the thesis: (i) higher oil; (ii) end of QE2; (iii) Japan disruptions; (iv) Washington budget battles; and (v) peripheral Europe. Investors remain largely cautious, which, when combined with active manager under performance and positive inflows, points to managers being “pulled into equities.” Moreover, we expect markets to be flattish June-Sept (for reasons noted) but still see 1250 on 3/15 as the “low for the year.” Our screen identified low P/E ideas from those 3 sectors. The tickers are WFC, HPQ, PNC, ALL, SYMC, CA, FDX, AFL, PRU, ETN, RIMM, MET, RTN, HIG, INTC, and CSX (see Figure 19).
etn , eaton, rtn, raytheon, csx
fuw 5.5.11
japan reconstruction effort
greek bonds restructuring, 60 pc nominal expected
interest rate hike, banks profits increase according credit/ deposit ratio, however this varies and some banks depend on capital amrkets more than others. Invest in wealth managemen and conservative profiles
stock market , clariant is back
International Coal group bought + 40pc
USA estate tax affecting stocks as well? ENQUIRE , JJ
cicor , recommended
usual contradictory macro economic signals, to be or not to be, looks like inflation gaining momentum and exports decreasing, likely scenario discounted by the markets. in the meantime central banks restrain from hiking rates.
At times of uncertainty with sluggish economy still positive comments on stocks , see interview at creditsuisse investment head, german guy with the same blunt redundant statements
htc amazing performance, better than appl
german perles, roth und rau, prices very high
who succeeds to warren buffet?interesting 1971 guy.
Derby cycle,electrical bykes.
Chinese pharma market and regualtory hurdles for western firms, exponential growth
japan pile up after earthquake
capital markets constraints for investments in asia , interesting study by the asian bank
aud strength , check telstra . telstra getting close to aud 3, att ebyond 30, dtel on 11 , telecom stocks dong well, accumulate ? Telefonica and dtel
check also pharma , biotech, interest moving towards these companies,cyclicals down.
Cds racket cartel , eu investigates
7.05.2011
article on environment and defense of nuclear by the prince of liechtrenstein
alternative to nuclear tech : gas kombi, so berner kraftwerk
commodities correction, gs forecasted , next scenario back up
bad press article on telecom being challenged by social networks
sonova in red
petroplus , 15% in 1 week
Barry Callebaut cacao producer outperforming SMI
MXN PESO up vs USD after good macr data from the USA
Greece , prices discounting restructuring , better long term than medieum term maturities
*A Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation, «Journal of Economic Perspectives», Winter 2011.
http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/stein/files/JEP-macroprudential-July22-2010.pdf
Finanzsystem präventiv sichern
Notenbanken wollen ihr Instrumentarium um makroprudentielle Massnahmen erweitern (Teil 2)
article on insurance companies and impact of tornados,special mention of zurich, sonova results good, dividend unchanged, this after profit warning and insider sale scandal.http://bloom.bg/g9C3qf . Good article on Holcim, solid investment?
Telecoms and Facebook+other social media, interesting chart on the food chain of telecom+ internet services. Discussion on the segmented pricing that telecoms could charge to content providers according to peak times and usage, ie facebook could be charged more than others?
Raw material prices are managed better by chemical companies than cleaning cosmetics products companies. Alstom, bad review, dividend cut, reorganisation, outlook not appealing in spite of infrastructure investments. Glencore bad review, transparency problem. ING good results. Intersting article on Singapore elections, Semiconductors , equipment producers AMT buys Varian, announcing consolidation wave to counter stronger bargaining power of larger semis producers ( INTC, Samsung), DRAM in Mobile phones matters, interesting explanation of industry evolution where ASML leader and link to INTC vs AMR Holdings latest semiconductor architecture more energy efficient and performing, Sweden Volvo and Saab bought by China no big deal but nordic pragmatism. Interview to Mihir Worah, physicist from berkley laboratory , detected formula for detecting anitmateria outcomes , now responsible for total return portfolio by PIMCO, claims that Raw Materials will shape inflationary expectation and central banks monetary policies in the next 10 years.
11.5.11
first page : on defence of eur zone, politics needs to devise clever solutions for debt restructuring , sic prof in hamburg, next page critic of greece, needs to restructure its debt ,2012 budget, markets discount 50 to 70% of funding capabilities
chf overvalued sic sarasin
swiss firms: swisslife pension business improving, abb buys software firm. Stock market , pharma up after commodities sell-off, abb in purchase mood well positionned for infrastructure investments
foreign firms : Man group buy LGL but sill down
usa manuifacturing http://bloom.bg/mSpYbn
basel 3 , moody's assesment postive , weaker banks not meeting these criteria will be taken over . In the meantime Rating agencies downgrade Greece to B, EU financial package of 110 bio will work only till 2012, after this split views on the crisis exit, markets panic. strong chf, a blessing or a curse, emblematic at th curent stage, usual targets.
Stockmarkets, MSFT buys Skype, Infineon buys back shares, Hotel Groups doing well in the uk, what abt tourism in the uk ( IHS)
Mexico, Slimm probed by antitrust, Embraer good results.
Nick Hayek complains about watch quality regulation, threatens to move away.
Strength of CHF affects insurance company Zurich exposed to the USA. Swisslife 30% pension funds business returns 7%, tornos mechanical small company outperforming, Micronas swiss high tech, good article, buy recommendation, Swiss Socialist Party and Financial regulation debated in the Parliament, ABB buys Austrailian software company for mining, Tecan Med Tech worth waiting, once again article on tax reform of companies.
Article on AIG, its rescue more expensive than Greece, American real estate could fall 10% more according to Robert Schiller, Munich Re affected by Japanese crisis but well positionned over there, Sony and Apple or Golia vs David although market cap shrinked. Sony affected by data stolen by hackers , Anonymous, in their online games, stock declined 19%, Embraer and other Brasilian companies diversifying in defense industry,
MARKET STRATEGY: 16 IDEAS FOR 25% RETRACE. We remain constructive on equities, while acknowledging the mounting headwinds to the thesis: (i) higher oil; (ii) end of QE2; (iii) Japan disruptions; (iv) Washington budget battles; and (v) peripheral Europe. Investors remain largely cautious, which, when combined with active manager underperformance and positive inflows, points to managers being “pulled into equities.” Moreover, we expect markets to be flattish June-Sept (for reasons noted) but still see 1250 on 3/15 as the “low for the year.” Our screen identified low P/E ideas from those 3 sectors. The tickers are WFC, HPQ,
PNC, ALL, PRU, MET,HIG, AFL,
SYMC, CA, RIMM, RTN, INTC,
FDX,ETN,CSX
15.5.2011
article main page , monetary policy central banks too diverse, unusual plummeting of raw materials and pressure on raising interest rates
article on the new estate law. Switzerland domiciles affected by US estate succession in absence of a bilateral agreement
sectorial allocation has begun, it will last. JNJ outperformned with ROG. They quote conservative strategist and deflationary risks mixed to increased rates. So, increase cash or go with Nestle, ROG,MSFT,ORCL,PG, Astra Zeneca. raw materials will keep up in spite of sudden correction. Worst case scenario is china hard landing and the usd .
Swiss markets, financial sector affected also by debate on capital ratios regulation in parliament ( Greece matters too). financials r dong very bad this year, yet again, Insurance included. Schmolz & Bickenbach up after Arcelor + peers good results . Luxury goods positive as usual.
Fixed Income , bonds on Clariant 3.125% and 5.125% Perpetual on Scor. Rumors more India in the CHF market. SNB hostage of the crisis. Currency stronger than eur is sloty, rates up at 4,25%
YHOO lost even more ,the stupid J Chang cannot capitalise on Alibaba which is divesting its best parts to founder for fire sale prices. Retail, Macy's up 14pc. Kohl, Nordstrom, up as well. Raw material companies and oil down. Germany RWE doen at 42.81 although dividend will be paid. Btelcom turnaround in good shape. Arcadis, -4pc, infrastructure investment. Cameco down at cad 25, delievries problem, Canada mining companies down. Saab bouhgt by China, Spain convertible PescaNova 5.125 2017, 27 premium, 0,47 correlation stock, pescanova stock good performance.
Company focus , Tullow Oil, focused in Africa.
Tim Summers replacing Kuznetsov , Vekselberg Buddy, at the helm of Oerlikon
Analysis of lobby for milder capital ratios in Bern, CS claims capital ratio figures proposed in parliament excessive and higher than UBS, astray from Expert commission by them supposedly controlled. Long Iter, wait till fall, in the meantime FINMA will double check.
Schaffner ,extraordinary company + development
Interview to the author of the fault lines, India Econ Prof Rajan, importance of social netwroks missing in the USA paid off by monetary policy, education for innovation and manufacturing jobs, problem of emerging mrkts dependence on overheated demand in america, rela estate boom used to smooth the divergence btw rich and poor in the USA in the past 20 years. Winner of the goldman sachs financial times prize, reviews of http://seekingalpha.com/article/224630-book-review-fault-lines-how-hidden-fractures-still-threaten-the-world-economy-by-raghuram-g-rajan , http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9111.html , http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66951/raghuram-g-rajan-mathias-dewatripontjean-charles-rochetjean-tiro/fault-lines-how-hidden-fractures-still-threaten- http://www.brookings.edu/events/2010/0621_fault_lines.aspx , http://www.sbe.co.uk/SBEBookReviews/tabid/82/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/255/Fault-Lines-How-Hidden-Fractures-Still-threaten-the-World-Economy.aspx
Good results of steel companies however problem of volatile prices, telefonica confirms year end results in spite of profits 2% down
Interview to Standard and Chartered Chief econmist claims that the West can learn from Asia, of course the financial aid package during Asian crisis is history, CHINA problem, slower growth, higher inflation.
Interview to star inv manager pease who contributed to shipwrek of henderson, back to business.
Disucssion on raw materials crash. Interesting chart showing how historicallly bad invetsment
18.5.2010
Greece brady plan to avoid Lehman scenario, sic Barry Eichengreen article
Google issues debt, watch out, GS recommends Spanish banks debt ( covered), ML triple B cycliocals in USD, conclusion, refinancing need r high , there is time and more opportunities ahead.
SMI, lot of coverage of medtech, sonova,ypsomed and tecan ,all at their lowest, Clariant target price chf 27 from UBS, is it serious?, Swisslife take over unlikely stock loosens up
Iceland upgrade to BB+, Greece forced privatisation and free willing restructuring r the options, debt at 16%, Portugal at 8pc. Eur/usd below 1.40 ? issuance of coveredonds icnreasing , leaves unsecured bond investors more insecure.
NYC , orthopedic industry consolidation, JNJ Synthes and Stryker Orthovita
Europe, commerzbank below eur 4, EAS BAE swap? ,
fuw 18.05.2010
schmolz bickenbach, specialisd steel producer form switzerland
ips , mechanical engineering group, risk venture stock, extremely specialised and innov. Long history of success and failures , now back
megatrends in towns , usual companies benefiting , also utx, siemens, and abb
syngetha , affected by strong chf , 250?
coco funds , swiss canto, mirko interview to fund manager, buy fund , 8-10% yield ?
Portugal funds agreeemnt , Greece twds debt restructuring
vodafone gbp, well potionned for emerg markets and dta transmission
sprint and ericsson , mobile equipmnt for data transmission
silver speculation 80s ended with sell off following regulation changes, today same ?
Fuw 21.5.2011
st galler bank cio negative,
spreading of debt crisis from the periphery to the centre, only exit is growth.
Credit suisse recommended to buy by dbank, target 48
floating rate notes in order to pair short term rate risk,
gloomy gsachs scenario on usd , sluggishness , eur at 1.45-1.50 in spite of crisis. Yuan and eur will replace usd
economic recovery stuttering, linkedin listing= social media euphoria, xin much cheap valuation
China inflation, power shortages, evergreen rallies, ema funds flow out,
Thomas Signer portraet , interesting profile of a writer who worked in finance and is now independent. Lives with his 92 years old father. Schreibender ex banker.
Interview to dsm chief, autoindustry bodes well for chemical company, bought vitamin busness of roche , suffers from strong chf and well psitioned in china, life science and material company with zero debt.
SGL carbon , VW buy participation.
BP negotiations with Rosneft
Unbelievable , Hilderbrand candiadte for IMF position, Lagarde deemed a specialist of finance.
Felix Zulauf, feared and respected hf manager from CH, expects correction of 20% on SP500
article on vietnam, high inflation, state conglomerates,
Gold price, room upwards, in spite of interest rates up, what matters is real rates in inflationary environment,
fuw 25.5.011
smart grids investments
China out of control
Greece to be or not to be , default or not, strike btw parties
Initiative SVP against free movmt of ppl in Switzerland
SMI, financial all year low , Sonova further down, Giorgio Behr GF and SIA proft of chf 36 mio
Swiss life perpetual bond, chf credits in easterne europe, timing bomb, let themd efaultg , will be good for weaker chf? Sharp consequences in Hungary. Price water house study. Credit rating Hungary down, OTP bank suffers. downgarde of cresit agricole ,linked 2 greece and italy by sp. Meanwhile Danthine SNB instructs students of st galen finance school on the fallacity of financial models quoting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wilmott , cool, discussion on reglation , the summary of past excesses and the abuse of roe concept , simply leverage. http://epaper.fuw.ch/front/detail/48105_5 ARTICLE, INTEREST rates needed to be high to avoid this cyclical upsurge of credit as in austrian theory ( see also dr doom faber blog and arguments ) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory http://blog.mises.org/2657/mark-faber-on-his-austrian-views/ greenspan conundrum
America: tsco, tractor supply , retail for agriculture , dupont, Boston scientific, ST Jude, Agilent and MDT down .
Ashes not good for airplane companies , check UAL.
Latin america, brasil cheap, banks ? Techint and Tenaris under gvmt pressure in Argentina, dividend not paid to board members!
Soros contrarian , sells gold.
Smart grids : Comverge, Enernoc, Ruggedcom, Usual large caps, abb siemens, schneider,ge
Sonova down the gutters ,
Roche and cancer research
study disturbing findings, turkey, greece , italy , tscheck republic top swiss banks deposits. Author focuses only on sweden as a high tax country with low deposits. Lack of further data.
Energy efficient fund, interview to Andres Gujan.
Russia udnerperforming BRIC.
Swiss Franc overvalued not against the eur, yes against the usd
china the next bubble as the usa, sic dylan grice alternative strategist of socgen
BHP, uranium deposit discovery linked to nuclear power development in australia can make it one of the largest producers if authorised to exploit it. Stock worth.
Commezbank, new issue of stock and capital dilution, operations well positionned
Russeel Napier , CLSA stratgist and financial market historian,anatomy of the bear, private sector overdebt, his mate Andrew Smithers calling for an end of debit rates deduction. June end of quantitave easing yb FED , expect the 10 years rate go from 3.1 to 4.5% at least. It follows a depreciation of stock values with sp500 at 400. However he does not speak abt currency value.
Sri Lanka article
Ben Bernanke
http://www.newsweek.com/2008/10/18/the-money-man.html
and times ? http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1946375_1947251_1947520,00.html
28.5. 2011
nuclear energy, discussion of swissmen ( against) and eichenberg from http://www.crema-research.ch/index.htm open as long as there are no subventions http://www.crema-research.ch/index.htm , several other articles on nuclear energy.
Einhorn HF manager criticises Balmer of msft, under scrutiny csco and rimm as well. UBS divesting Investment bank in Singapore, authorities there need to thank Swiss gvmnt.
Bonds: enel finance 2015 in chf and eur
Discussion on regulatory framework at the cente of austrian economics foundation in vaduz,
forecasts usd/ hf and eur/chf .
EXR extr space storage store business listed in the stock market
canada mining stocks up, copper stocks as well ( bhp, rtp, kazakhs,antofagasta).
Son left behind, Nokia at 4.8 8 years low , technology blody lesson, bet only on lean companies following the trend with a good innovative pipeline. Nokia did not have a clue on what lied ahead and lost the train on tanslation.Disastr and no project, Hiring a fomer MSFT does not help at all, on the contrary. It takes a bold visionary view to redress the company. Lenovo great results.
Zickert Gebote der Finanzkunst.buy only market friendly stocks
Switzerland and Germany out of nuclear. Energy efficient stocks following ban on nuclear energy , aixtron,abb, schneider, philips. See also article and charts on Meyer Burger , Schaffner, Gurit.
Robin hoods , investment amangers association in Switzerland udner regulatory pressure
Ypsomed , einstieg zu frueh.
Discussion of strafrecht and the busse and der post . A company , sa cannot eb punished , an individual yes. Howeevr fines can be levied.
An analyst positive on banking and insurance stocks, Rainer Skierka.
Article on us banks hit by credit slump. Takes a long time and patience.Artcicle on GS , Blankfein and senator Carl Levin, senate commission accusing GS of having lied on its short positions on real estate.
Interview to INTC chief financial officer, gowth in mobile devices
article on german biotech, morphosys, wilex,
Philip Morris discovers a nicotine spray, IMF battle btw Lagarde and LatinAmerican CARSTEN FROM mEXICO.
El Erian very negative on global economy, sends warnings on the complexity or impossibility of cutting unmployment, refers to sputnik moment as a unification consensual posiibility for adressing the domestic problems.
1.6.2010
Michael Pettis, china yuan did not appreciate at all, only 5%, inflation increasing, real rates down, necessary reallocation from labor to capital intensive economy to improve productivity.
Article by Peter Morf atacking the parliament who refuses to cut costs and ammends the law on corporate tax.
10 years below chf 2, climbing to 2.3%, chf bonds on clariant , abn amro, swisslife and holcim finance international
ICMA; complaints against EU imposing investment ceilings up to eur 250k for low rade invetsment bonds.
E.ON disgraced by German gvmnt in search of funds , shut nuclear stations by keeping same tax rate increase. Solar stocks funded by subsidies are the ones benefiting. Stock pickijng includes market regulation. It is defensive but given its domestic implanation is one of the favorite targets of the gvmnt. Curiously , multinationals and ecommerce social media companies can escape to the claws of big brother and become recession proof. See f.ex google and appl.
Convertibles XS0632138961 aabar into daimler 2016
Insurance, europe driven like swisslife doing better than global ones exposed to Japan earthquake.
Logitech, kein Kauf
Interesting figures on banking earnings in switzerland, offshore banking 78%, asset maagement only 9%
UBS Bubble Index on Swiss reale state , not yet at 1990s levels. A lot of new home purchasing.
Swiss domestic grwoth slows down but exports keep goning, why ? Riddle. Economist of imf and bns contradicting themselves on elasticity of exports vs currency strength.
Sustainable portfolio , article of a pcitet expert.wow
Gold and central banks . Russia, thailand and mexco buying it. What fi japan and china? Interestign figures on usd world reserves , 61pc compared to 15% of USA world GDP.
Greece, reforms gaining momentum, privatisations and liberalisation as in Italy, assets in state enterprises land and real estate worth 300 bio to cover total debt. Drachma reversion ruled out. Expecting greek successfull diaspora to come back given new business regulatoryx framework. Greek bank helathy balance sheet in lack of US subprime and Ireland leveraged interbanking deals affected by exposure to Greek insolvent debt debt with hefty losses .
Martin Feldstein economist, former Reagan advisor, argues the opposite. Take it out temporarily from EU to regain competitivity through devaluation.
Symantec and the hacker attacks. A business opportunity.
Fuw , 8.6.2010
Thorsten Hens, Dimson , Marsh and Staunton, triumph of optimists . Bob Shiller volatility of stock market higher than gdp, Amos Tversky , nobel prize with Daniel Kahneman
title , nokia nageschlagen aber nicht ko. Wiondows alliance before aqdroid gives opportunity to upgarde he software.
Swiss market , cyclicals like holcim under pressure , sonova recommended by chevreiux,
A macroprudential approach to financial regulation , journal of econoic perspectives, continuation. Not only bnks but also disocunt brokers and others need to be regulated for their leverage capacity.
switzerland virtuous cycle? As long as low rate ignite mortgage demand , then domestic fuelled growth , etc. , etc.
According to peterson institute in wasington , chf/usd = 0.78. aud, brl overvalued.
Usa stock market, education stocks, corinthian colleges , apollo group, strayer education.
Bearer shares in switzerland and the urge of dismantling them by oecd. Aktienfuhrer 2011 , details on the sharegholder structure of corporate switzerland. Reminder of hosw blocher tried to dismantle it in 2006 when minister but met opposition of financial industry.
MARKETS STRATEGY, volatility icnreaes , slow down discounted but overall trend is up . Avoid cyclicals and industrials, switch into defensive.
Strong recommendation for burckhardt , late cyclcal
switzerland : regional banks are losing steam
bearer shares, the fuw in favor, of course , argument : the banks know their clients.
Facts , insurers need also to disclose data on bo.
Interview to k. Rogoff on eu, obvious remarks but uttered by a genius : eu does not have majortiy rule which makes decisions difficult at the unanimity.
Portugal elections, right wing govmnt wins, former entrepreneur , 46y, promises to heal the house budget before borrowing.
Peru, Umala left wing wins, stock market crashes. EPU , ETF , Compania Minas Buenaventura and Southern Copper heavily down. ( pcu) http://seekingalpha.com/article/144786-ishares-peru-etf-heavily-concentrated-in-materials-single-names + http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-06/peruvian-mining-stocks-plunge-as-humala-claims-election-victory.html
Double dip in the USA, the risks are there after poor data on labor attesting the slowest recovery since the greatd epression. but Benni positive. No sign of 3rd QE, check the industrial capacity figures, amy preannounce a slow down.
Glencore with xstrata ?
Tepco bankrupt?
Those who advise the central banks to sell gold, rbs nick moore, cyclicity of raw materials highlighted.
FUW , 4.6.2010
article on VSPB ( Verein Schweiz Privat Bankier), Konrad Hummler led, complaints on stifling regulation generating paper work, criticism to FINMA, quoting Lugano convention to defend against MIFID principle to make swiss banks accountable vis a vis foreign clients rather than their home country. Criticism of bilateral agreemnts lack of reciprocity where foreigners tap ch markets but cthe oppposite not possible.
While OECD praises Swiss effort for fiscal reciprocity , Bearer share issue still open and VSPB warns against inetreference reminding unlawful steal of data.
article of marco passardi, prf uni, on finma , ubs crisis, heavy criticism of hatiner, banking regulatiojn and role of parliament dimished agiant executive powers of gvmnt during crisis, need to restore parliament control.
Banking regulation , does Basel III stymie lending. This is the new argument of bnking association, quantitative easing endangered. Howevder accroding to economists better credit allocation ndertaken with lower risks and more value.See lead article March 2d. Adnat Admati quoted in Fallacies , irrelevant facts and myths in the discussion of capital regulation, Barro and Miles explain how normalised returns does not tak into account fat tail events like 15% GDP drop observed every 80 years rather than 600. discussion of merton modigliani model on leverage and capital risk correlation
Companies swimm in cash flow, shares buy back, dividend increase or m&a, see sika , bucher
Swisscanto bond invest coco
Interview to Alcatel ceo, turnaround story
Mediclinic, south african clinic group that took over hirsladen,privatisation of health care in s africa
China no hard landing, a cpouple of telephone call to state owned banks enough to reactivate credit !
OC Oerlikon , coverage article, solar panels,
Alan Levenson, T.Rowe Price
1-2% contribution to growth by housing , right now oversupply that will be absorbed in 2 years , after which resumption of nromal housing growth according to population , currently 50% lower. QE2 was to avoid deflation , now QE3 is not necessary. Inflation low cause high unemployment. The guy is optimistic, like Plato. He eared a Ba in Philo.
Inzteresting work of art on swiss engineered watches,accumulation by arman http://epaper.fuw.ch/front/index/15503
WSJ , 8.6.2011
chart with higheste xposure of greek debt, Germany ,France, UK in sequence
ECB July rate rise
prosecutors targetting lawyers in the usa
australia keeps rates steady, growth concerns, aud/usd concern , 7% overvalued
high food prices pose threat to poor nations
Chinese investments in EU not supervised by regulatory comission
security tokes take hit ,
facebook and co backing merger btw att and t mobile
regulation starting on July 16, disarray for derivatives trading, new rules= grey areas
germany, real estate development good, aging pop moving to big towns
usa commercial real estate reahces its peak, sales increas, rush out given insecurity.
Ecb rises rates, eur/usd 1.50
Martin Feldstein pontificates
FUW 08.06.11
Uster expects good year
Online mortgages launched by swissquote
risks of a double dip reappear
Sulzer hit by strong chf, Helvea reduces esttimates and rating to neutral, target 175. Burckhardt follows.
Greece default problem or restructuring, how the banks will book it ? IMF Lagarde seeking nomination at IMF , of course so French banks can negotiate better the restrudcturing package involving privatisation.
Island , new bond issue?
ATT has problems to psass its merger with T mobile,old instinct prevail ( history) but new analysis stops from seeing real monopoly of social media. Pathetic regulation. Deutsche telecom purchase of hellenic telecom delayed. Bank stocks performing very poorly, disaster of c and bac. GM pay back its debt to the gvmnt and makes profit again. Their hands r free. Gvmnt preoccupied only with financial institutions.
Latin America, check America Movil, Homex and Urbi
arcelor 2014 convertible with put protection 7.25% put at eur 20, lower volatility , lower premiums
Die Wahrheit liegt zwischen zwei extremen aber nicht in der Mitte, so true for the markts, where will they end up, very likely witha double dip, egneral slow down.
Credit crisis of 1918.
Abbott Laboratories , coverage article.
WSJ
bank of ireland, gvmnt restructuring its junior debt , tier2 securities, what kind of debt is it the one in chf .
Prof Sinn of IFO German Institute against bail out through START system of PIGS. Countered by ex. Of Lehman Bros loss by Bundesbank absorbed by Eurosystem partners. ECB creating liquidity for short term loans following demise of PIGS bank. Credit allocation is actually benefiting Germany which should restrain it in a period of booming. Failure of German banks to allocate well its capitals both in the USA and Southern countries.
China property prices down faster , copper and metal prices follow. What nex, will growth falter? Banks issuing yuan bonds allowed to reinvest the proceeds in mailand chinna higher bond yields.
Martin Fucking Feldstein, the economy is worst than you think, former reagan advisor speaking.
Hungary nationalist right wing government in a expansionary keynesian policy to create jobs. What about huf ?
BP deal with rosneft is over constrained by TNK agreeement.
Sterling could be hit further, risks to lose is triple a investment grade. Buy usd !
Germany wants greek bonds roll over , rated as default then triggers credit crisis in lack of collateral.
Fuw, 11.06.2010
Bilateral negotiations with Germany for declaring hiiden goods in Switzerland risk to fail if concessions without anything in exchange, as f.ex protection of stolen data, of private bankers , access to FINMA.
Konrad Humler , president of the Swiss Private Banking association calls for a unified strategy for the Swiss Financial Platform, and highlights how during the crisis there were two banks, those backed by government and those not. criminalisation of secret banking with end of distinction btw money fraud and money hiding? Too big to fail regulation has implications also for the private banks forced to icnrease their capital ratios.
American gvmnt pressing switzerland to deliver details on american clients , credit suisse may be next victim. A fine of billions and information delivery is demanded by amercan gvmnt.
Bonds in chf PKO Finance 3.5% 2011.
According to BAK withiout the 10 poc appreciation the grwoht would have been of 4% , emerging market rate! Economie Suisse forecasts lower unemployment rate at 3%. Econimie Suisse, the strong franc prompts the deinsutrialsiaiton of Switzerland! Overheating of the real estate sector!
Brazil, Poland , South Korea increase rates, Serbia cuts to 12%
BAD REVIEW ON BANKS. Credit Suisse and UBS
Textile sector , cyclical, negative prudent rating.
Unternehmensteuerreform II , Kapitaleinlageprinzip or no tax on buy back shares opposed by the left, interview to Rolf Schweiger, MP form Zug, buy. Prognosen per definitionem nich exact sein koennen.
Gysi, foreign private bankers swiss union , business is good, ususal recomendations against state interference.
Interview, no double dip, buy shares, in particualr total, sanofi. Usual positive feedback from equity specialist.
Peter oppenheimer, gsaqchs strategist, usd will be weaker , rates unchanged until 2013, Raw materials prics up howeevr end markets will suffer bcs margins shrink. Central banks measure work, inflation fades away by lae summer, prefers China and Russia, GS favorites Pmorris, Telefonica, ABB, Swatch, Santander,
Greek debt, German Schauble prompting debate, to restructure or not , this is the question and what does restructuring mean, default? Swap into 7 years bonds rather than reinvest the proceedings from maturities as agreed by Trichet but Draghi drags his heels and asks for the issue to be debated by the EU parliament. rating agencies threat of utter default if restructuring, feared by central bank given collateral from spanish, irish and greek banks used for market liquidity operations It results a strong debate which although perilous may just reinforce the legittimacy of the EU institution and the understanding of te rating agencies role.
Is Germany in an AlleinGang? Refusal to enter in the Lybian war and Merkel comparison to a big small Switzerland.
Intercell, biotech compnay, fllng star, Novartis bought 15% for eur 37, now at eur 4. failure in development of blockbuster vaccines , low stock price triggers massive dilution of issued convertible bond.
PG coverage article
Bank of Ireland debt restructring , implications not clear in the article. Whch debt ?
MSCI Africa lagging behing emerging markts
Hedge fund against JTI lagging behind PhilMorris . Gvmnt main sharholder, no share buy back. Japan earthquake negative impact on results.
Gibraltar, country review. Success sory, low taes 4 growth, of course , its is a financial hven stupid.
Fuw 15-6-2011
wir brauchen die auslaender, starrag werkzeug maschine
Daniel Gross, European Polic center, CRDIV, new rules for banking capital ratios affect only private sector , not public one. Banbks will lend more money to gvmnts than small medium enterprises ending up like Greek banks , erased by the gvmnt default.
Another article on chf strength, highlight bns dielemma anjd ris of a global slowdown hitting exports. Gsachs estmate eur/chf 1.42.
Tepco taken over by Japanese gvmnt, shorters squeezed out after change of rules.
Germany, metro shares , Telefonica and B Santander under pressure
Strength of chf benefiting importers of goods and not consuemrs! petrol price the same everywhere, why?
Sonova article, no buy, very prudent, sonetek start up in hearing systems
Actelion hampered by strong chf, step in according to FUW
Insurance well prepared for paring losses of greece credit default?
Valartis russia fund managr favorites: x5, sberbank and novatek. Is the bear viktor linked to his bank?
Glencore pays 10% taxes on its income
Greece and tourism , Piraeus Port Authority,Folli Follie. ISRAEL, rUSSIA AND China amid new clients
ft.16.6.11
housing , rent inflation, 2-4% increase in the enxt 5 years
Ft
ireland senior bonds non gvmnt guaratee to take hair cut ( allied irish)
china tigthens lending, developers in trouble, price competition to sell inventory, justice mpovmnts in china fr harsh labor conditions
Schauble against socialising the losses of Greece , investors need to take losses.
Derivatives exchange reforms, end of otc, inetresting article on the risks of central platforms bail out,good summarising chart. Jeremy grant frinancial reform
business lessons from crime scene, emma jacobs .
News of africa investmens spreadingHelios , private equity fund helios iases usd 1bio
UK bank reform, pretect depositors like in Ireland h an economic cost nd a political gain.
Fears grwoing over Turkey debt . Roach, US consumers compared to Japanese zombie economy : not kicking in. wrong measures with quantitative easing, so what should u do? Before criticising tight japanese policy, now what? Export led economies affected.
Private investors shorting us treasuries, central banks buying, bet that slowdown only transitory
covered banks replacing off balance sheet securitization while owering guarantees for other credits linked to balance sheet assets, conservative MEP Vicky Ford warns.
The country is more like a Middle Eastern oil autocracy than a buddin European democracy, writes Charles Clover
Financial reforms slow to reach Moscow, Efforts to diversify the economy have been blocked, says Catherine Belton
ethical banking, sustainable banking
Regulation Can tougher rules end the boom and bust cycle? Brooke Masters reports
Gary silverman on puerto rico
south south tradce increasing
Evgeny Morozov on fake Lesbian and syria, the net delusion
cloud computing, google and apple
on Lex Nokia deemed dead , in the gallows, whereas RIMM fighting for life. So much can apple or just a gigantic mystification enhanced by its journalist friends
It looks like British press wishes bad luck to EU and Greece, they shouéld care more abt their problems. Not a single postive or constructive article , all pages tainted with a dark omen. Disgraceful.
AWP RPT/PRESSE/CS: un client va devant le Tribunal fédéral dans l'affaire Lehman
22.06.11 05:21:05- AWFB
répétition de la veille
Berne (awp) - Un client de Credit Suisse (CS) a décidé de porter le
litige qui l'oppose à la banque dans l'affaire des titres Lehman devant le
Tribunal fédéral. C'est ce qu'a révélé mardi soir la
télévision régionale bernoise "Telebärn".
En septembre 2008, Hugo Rey a perdu 50'000 CHF avec des titres Lehman. Il fait
partie des clients de CS qui ont refusé une indemnisation proposée
par la banque et l'ont poursuivie en justice. Le tribunal de commerce de Berne
a rejeté sa plainte le 25 août 2010. Il a donc décidé de
porter l'affaire jusqu'au Tribunal fédéral, selon "Telebärn".
cc/mk/jq/rp
attack on karachi naval base http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13495127
fuw18.6.2011
usa succession tax, switzerland lacks a paragraph in its bilateral agreements that grants immunity from taxation as in other countries. Revision takes time.
CEO Stadler,Peter Spuhler, railway manufacturer, MP, against chf appreciation
SNB 0 % interest rates, powerless in front of eur faltering and swiss real estate bubble. Raiffeisen bank very exposed , higher rates = losses . SNB asks quick implementation of 19% criteria ,while markets crumble for chf appreciation and banks stocks are further derpessed. Opinion that chf strength deleterious for exports starts to take roots, see roche , banks and cyclicals.
Ams buys taos, it invetsment in mobile computing
lack of investments in biotech veture cap( wagnisfinanzierer)
Swiss Banks income higher, lower deposits.
Interview to basf ceo, imporessive performance form eur 40 in 2010 to 60 in 2011
article on bernanke, confriuming his quantitative easing through bonds purchases, usd depreciates more , stock mrkts balk at undecision in washington on budget cap.
Banking regulation, uk, retail banking must be insulatd from other activities.
ECB , Greek crisis, Yannis Varoufakis same idea as Prat , transfer the debt to the ECB, credit spreads will drop. Draw a parallel with the US banking system and the federal reserve history.
Chinese unreliable small caps. Sino forest fraud
article on gas , eden ahead. Nuclear crisis helps.
ft,22.6.2011
alfonso prat gay, latin lessons for a classic eurozone recovery or how to restgructure greek debt withiout defaulting.dilemma btw legittimacy and efficiency in the eu.
Sarana, opposition leader of Greece , to vote against austerity plan.Dmostehenes , Pericles and demagocical power.
Martin feldstein, reagan advisor now in harvard, again slashing greece ( is in switzerland ineterest to jmoin him?)while FT lex argues that transfer of debt to sovreign EU would make the trick (/ euro all in this together june 23 2011).see also mechanism of fiscal transfers. rating agencies dilemma , what is a default , will be crucial, menawhile moodys pursues its crusade and downgardes italy, remember the criminal subprimemess ? Also, cds may explode , who owes what and to wom riddle liok in aig problem. ( see david oakley in ft june 24) .Germany and unwilling private investors ( mainly french and german banks) to take their share in the restructuring by rolling over greece liabilities. In this bonfire of vanities , puraility of opinions surge and come together to threaten the evry stability of the system, while Greece clouds choice of new IMF leader, according to manag director Batista from Brazil , to appoint Lagarde is tantamount to put a debtor in charge of a bank Donald Tusk emerges as savy leader highlighting poland path to recovery in the 80s. Unity and attitudes of polish people + support of eu were key to success . Not today. O yes, deelterious national inetrest reminderdeleterious dynamc tht started IWW. Draghi doubts and Binaghi resignation.
CHF always appreciating, Hfunds at work, what Hilderbrandt is doing, no intervention, silver specualtion constraints could teach?
China inflation reined in, good but at what cost , econ slow down, not god for the usa, if only a stronger yuan could help to import more , however chinese afraid of losing competitivity and above all problem with their unemployment rate. Similar blueprint as Japan in the past.. ai weiwei , chiense artist released, remember reagan and the great satan, so longago, china forgotten case. China cheap yuan, means working for the rich neighbor usa and builing a chinese hermetic wall against barbarian financial turmoils.trade openess of china to foreign interests was attested only when monghols took over as marco polo well attests. The dynastic interests today concentrated in the comunist party make the castle walls necessary. It is in their history and culture.
Lenovo think centre, copy of eee pc. How asians are smart in copying siliconm valley technology. Get the ebst by sending their graduates to amercian laboratories and universities and bringing back their secrets. Same technology tansfer happened before in the silk road btw china the middle east and europe. Silk secret difficult to keep , particularly at ties of decline as happened with china in the past. Reassertion of gideons maxim , decline starts from within. Jesuists in China attested to the splendor of sino civilisation before a dogmatic reactionary reversal and mionghol invasions ( see Louce Bolnois ). However for centuries chinese kept silk secfret and their competitive edge whereas americans lose their silicon edge much quicker thanks to their openess. repulsion of the congress against chinese investment in america contradictory. Meanwhile volvo sold to chinese. Welcome money. Keep secrets? Motto , flctuat nec mergitur sic economic times.
Demographic and pension funding problem highlighted by imf to sideline stanley fischer cose 65.
shareholder vALUE increasing i1
us state start probe into google dominance
amazonia deforestation continues, biofuels subsidies arfe distoring agricultural prices, letter to the ft, employ money spent in trivial wars to focus in genius/ einsteins breeding and new technology discoveries like space traveling rather than creating games for financial gambling. We re stuck in the stone age with rocket fuel technology , we need more to preserve human species in the future
ztech, le
Barron's(6/20) Profile: Thinking Ahead
18.06.11 05:03:00- APIN
(From BARRON'S)
By Bob O'Brien
David Eiswert's preschool-age daughter taught herself how to tell time in an
hour, using an iPad.
Prodigy? Well, no. Telling time isn't quite as tough as playing a piano
concerto. Still, most of us needed a few days of kindergarten schooling to
master a clock. And, let's be honest, some of us still don't know how to tell
time.
"It's extremely efficient," Eiswert says, "for the educational process to move
to the digital world."
Extremes mean a lot to him. Eiswert is the portfolio manager of the T. Rowe
Price Global Technology Fund (ticker: PRGTX). And his basic belief can be
boiled down to: "We think technology is about extreme outcomes. And we want to
be on the right side of that extreme outcome."
What constitutes an extreme outcome? Imagine, he says, that it's 2002. E-mail
is blossoming into a key avenue of information distribution. But it is largely
an office-based, PC-centric solution. Imagine if, at that time, you'd
anticipated that some day, everyone would need a BlackBerry, he says. You'd
have bought Research In Motion (RIMM). And, by mid-2008, your 2002 investment
of $2 per share would be worth almost $150.
"The way we win the war is to be on the right side of change," Eiswert says.
One of Eiswert's key themes is mobility, which is part of why Apple (AAPL) is
the fund's largest holding. Granted, mobility doesn't sound like bleeding-edge
technology. Almost nobody sits down to lunch in a restaurant these days without
putting a mobile device on the table.
But, thinking of it as Eiswert does, mobility seems critical: By his
estimation, there are roughly 2.5 billion prospective technology customers in
the world. As of now, only 600 million of them can afford technologies like
mobile computing. "That means that more than three times as many people who are
currently not a technology consumer are going to -- someday -- become a
technology consumer," Eiswert says. "And, the follow-through to that, is that
the enterprises that service these consumers, from a retail shop to a bank, are
all going to have to adopt IT as those consumers adopt IT," he says.
Mobile products are a world-wide phenomenon. The T. Rowe Price Global
Technology Fund, which holds as many as 100 stocks at a time, has 35% to 40%
are from companies based outside the U.S.
"To be a good technology investor, you have to have a good imagination,"
Eiswert says. Imagine, for instance, a world in which everyone has a
smartphone. Then imagine what that means, for example, to a company like
Twitter.
Since Eiswert took over management in October 2008, the fund, which has $548
million in assets, has returned 76%, versus 16% for the Standard & Poor's 500
over that time. From the bottom of the recent market cycle, in March 2009, the
global tech fund is up 160%, handily beating the S&P's 97% return.
Eiswert's largest holdings, in addition to Apple, include big technology names
with leading-edge characteristics, such as Qualcomm (QCOM), which makes up
nearly 5% of the portfolio, and Google (GOOG), slightly more than 3.5%. At
about 3% each, Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea), and Tokyo Electron
(8035.Japan), a maker of semiconductor-equipment, reflect the fund's global
footprint.
The fund's research methodology eschews the old model of having an analyst
specializing in discreet technology disciplines: a semiconductor expert, for
instance, a telecom-services analyst, and a PC wizard.
Instead, analysts are sprinkled throughout the globe, become experts in the
technology leaders in their markets, and share insights and suggestions at
regular research meetings. "I'm really just the camp coordinator," Eiswert
jokes.
"We sit down with [tech company executives] and bring them insights from these
different markets," Eiswert says. "We'll say, 'We just came from Korea, and
here's what Samsung has to say about the market now.'"
One example of how the firm's global research can help provide profitable
insights is the rise of backlit handset screens and flat-panel television
displays with LED (light-emitting diode) technology. When Eiswert's analysts
recognized the trend in 2009, LEDs lit maybe 2% of television displays. Last
year, that figure rose to 35%. This year, it's near 65%. Rubicon Technologies
(RBCN), a maker of sophisticated crystal components for LEDs, figured to
benefit so the fund bought it, as well as Germany's Aixtron (AIXG).
Technology investing has changed dramatically in the last several years. A
decade ago, technology was a PC sitting on a desk, mirrored by the same setup
at home. Investing successfully meant buying the leaders: the best operating
system, so likely Microsoft (MSFT); the best desktop producer, Dell (DELL), and
the best chip maker, Intel (INTC).
Once companies came up with a computing device you could carry around in a
bag, "Dell's customization of the desktop essentially no longer mattered,"
Eiswert says.
The global tech fund doesn't entirely avoid the former mainstays. "There's a
portion of this portfolio where we buy things we think are just too cheap,"
Eiswert says. He likes, for instance, intellectual property. A company like
Motorola Mobility (MMI), the handset business of the old Motorola, holds 17,000
patents for technology, yet the market hasn't been giving the company its
props.
But contemporary technology investing has been revolutionized. For instance,
Google invests in developing Android, an operating system that rivals that of
Apple and even Microsoft. Then what does Google do? It gives the darned thing
away. Why? They're monetizing search, Eiswert says, not systems.
Not so Apple. Is it really selling apps? Or digital music content? No. "Do you
think when they built the original iTunes, Apple thought you'd be downloading
Angry Birds?" he asks. Apple, unlike Google, sells a system. That's different
from Amazon.com (AMZN) which, with its Kindle, sells digital content.
The remarkable thing about technology, Eiswert says, is that, while component
prices for items such as chips are declining, the average selling price of
devices has gone up. Feature-laden products command bigger prices.
"Wherever you go in the world today, everybody seems to have a mobile device
on the table," Eiswert says. "Technology is aspirational."
---
For Barron's subscription information call 1-888-BARRONS ext. 685 or inquire
online at http://www.barronsmag.com/subscription/subscription.html.
http://avaxhome.ws/ebooks/economics_finances/Institutionalwerfgsergse.html
Fuw 21.6.2011
snb neutral on chf policy after losing billions last year , gvmnt as well, only chf 24 mio disbursed for tourism. 1970S measures like negative interests deeemd useless. UBS was however rescud with gvmnt money. Curious reference to Forschungsstab not consulted.. Silver speculation. Issuance of chf debt increased fuelled by investment bnks, higher than nok. CS negative forecast on usd.
Positive article on syngentha, ready to increase dividend.
According to iht , a lot of american citizens give up theri passport given taxation.
Southern co, utility usa, good dividend
Bilateral negotiaitons around taxation wirth Germany ad France damping wealth management.
Global head equity nomura postive on japan and europe
new eu regulation on fund industry (ucits) influencing switzerland, call for a legal reform thatn improves swiss financial competitivity and strength
baidu and focus media , chinese adr with potential ?
FUW,25.6.2011
gerold buherer, ceo economie suisse, strong xhf = more innovation , funding of technical schools and tax comapny reform!
US economy fdoes not kick off,
stupid article of p beguelin on snb policy , dont be inflationary dont print money, huge losses? Just dtop nthe dividend, no mention of regulatory measures. Historical origins of bns , bank to support cantons in the spirit of federals system, however perequation finaciere already paid off these fiscal transfers.
Chf 7% SRLEV 2016
CHF 2.75% BNDES 2016
Dentsply, detal equipment, nobelbiocare swap
interview to evelyne rumpf on too big to fail. She is positive.
Julius Baer likes nok, poland, ucraine, russia, india
Von roll restructuring story, investments in new technologies such as solar panels, left behind abb and smi, new ceo oppernman supported by Von Flinck family who is losing 30% ( chf 00 mio) since buying stake. Stock uinder pressure.
High Yield Market vs Bank credits , imposing itself in Germany, Europe is smore conservative than USA when it comes to froeign funding.
IFO president Hans Werner Sinn ocne again in th limelight with criticism of refunding system of ECB tilted towards PIGS state insolvency crisis. Lak of visibility of national central banks as in Ireland where bust banks were funded by central national bank, reference to US federal system where regional banks need to clear their liabilities every year. Trichet works for further ec
Philips refocusing going on, solid financials howeevr in difficulty,another casualty down the road, the only winner is ecommerce and social media which reap the yields from advertising. To copy electronics has become a kid game.
Japan very cheap after earthquake, invest in alternative energies ! Kyocera, mitsubishi heavy industries,yamatake
Philippines very good.
Nanotechnology and SGP
Mongolia and Mining resorces, Mongolian Minin, Southgobi resources, Centerra Gold.
Bhagwati calls for technology free trade . Ok but what about copy rights infringements , it is already hapening!
Ftimes
China economic nationalism, Wei visits Europe
schlumberger and iraq
martin wolf answer to BIS claim to fight deficit and inflation with higher rates , structural deficit will be adressed with structural surplus.
El Erian slashes Europe and he IMF asking for reforms
MSFT cloud office would open cross selling of customer database platforms competing with orcl and salesforce, not google
FUW 28.6.11
chf strength ,interview to aymo brunetti, chied economist seco, sharp currency changes are difficult to cope with in terms of restructuring. Switzerland will not be anymore a manufacturing country but a precious glass menagery , a toy cooko clock for hedge funds very fragile that will replace the added value of productive assets outsourced abroad in lack of quick impossible adjustments.Will we be left only with luxury companies with inelastic demand? Assymetrical flows and rules r hitting Swiss currency while the trade surplus balance concerns Asia and China and not the area where Switzleand is located. Free exchange rate system is certainly not a concern for SGP HK or China given their pegged currencies which was a disaster at the end of 21st c but is boon now. Shall CHF be pegged to EUR as proposed by socalists and swiss metal group? if the rules of the game are not fair why do u keep playing at tose rules, what is stopping u, the financial lobby? Singapore scares but why r thx ompetitive with their sgp pegged to the usd? Example of danish krona pegged to eur. Swatch and Biel have benefited massively of subsidies and now reaping benefits while they threaten to step out of the country if too many outsourcing hurdles.Radicals r against pegging, but we r in xceptional tomes, were they aganist rescuing ubs ?
Walter Meyer high dividend, chf, cosntruction machines , nicely priced
1.7.2011
elisabeth tester on snb, chf printing, snb in a corner , luckily we have fiscal policies still avialble. Yes , but what abt former snb policy?
Federal budget even till 2015, increase of tax income and social expenses.
UBS , Axel Weber
Finnish Pohjola Bank
Sinopharm, article, drug market in China
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals
thomas kressin, inetresting interview to pimco portfolio manager
Fink, blackrock boss worried by social riots in europe , calling for higher bank capital standards and not only austerity , 2d tarp usa version transposed to eu banks, evry confident abt usa, no problem with debt ceiling, bankrupcy like lehman = systemic risk= not affordable for politicians.
Amman at the swiss metal conference, intervention rled out, forget 1.50 of 2 years ago to come back. Signed Manfred Roesch
4.7.11
six sells its stake to deutsche boerse diluited to 15% after merger with nyse euronext, bns upset because losing control on repo operatins, monetary independence undermined?Interesting title on http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-06/how-america-ceded-capitalism-s-bastion-to-germans.html related to this theme.
Insurance groups enough capital ion stresss test. Stress test , if only it was approved later fro this turbulent age of irrational exubernace. Gvmnt and exec were against , milk the cow until u can.
Problem of real estate in zh, prices very high,
german landesbank with chf debts on watczh list of moody's, what abt the other institutes which borrowed in chf ? What is the role of the snb, is it guilty for previous moentary policy which facilitated chf lending through repo in eastern europe blocks? 2 factors , deleveraging and healthy policies undermining swiss stability.see thomas
Discusison around the stamp duty on financial transactions, does it affect swiss financial platorm?
Bns 13247022 brazil chf
covanta , compnay in recycling and energy production
tokyo electric allowed ti reopen 2 reactors!
Eastern property holdings , valrtis , stenbolt, take over at usd 50, listed in six
EU launces regulatory threat agst Moody afterPOrtugal downgrade. Schauble arguing to rbeak olipoly power of agencies.
9.7.2011
portugal junk bonds downgrade, italy under attack
ubs publishes paper criticising snb, calling for an icnrease of capital reserves. Rethrorical war goes on on the wake of bank regulation. But how they dare to crticise snb arguing that low inetrest rates and cchf strenght jeopardised. The Swiss gvmnt sticks to th libertarian orthodoxy , no protectionism or intervention, no tax reduction for hotel and export industry contemplated, thanks Aman, reminds me hoover in the great depression, the ball is passed to the snb to take care of the problem.
Retail clothing ( urban outfitters, khl), oil and equipment up together with apple in usa rally.
Russia , railways dvpmnt, alstom and siemens may profit . Transcontainer, listed freight company
13.7.2010
daniel gross, european institute, warns of greek default,with greek gdp half down after rapig growth with eu integratio and private banks debt soaring to 400% of gdp
Peter Schuppli Stahlbad fuer Anleger , opportunitaet fuer unternehmer, complains abt the bad finances of EU and USA for swiss strength . Forgets deleveraging in Eastern Europe. m&a in favor of swiss companies but whch companies, multinational ones? Anotehr dilemma.
Axel Weber successor of Villiger, let's hope there wont be anymore conflict of interests as before, while chf stronger baqnks forced to downisze labrforce given lower earnings.
End of 1990s usa helped asia to get out of its crisis , the reverse is not true right now. Manufacturing crisis= price depression , typically new technology. Similar to past cycles, amrxist critique. Agriculture bouncing back.
Those extolling the virtues of chf strength ask a gold frank ( see thomas jacob and parliament intiative) Dont they have anything better to discuss or come up with?
Michel Barnier EU intenal markets comissioner against rating agencies, Eu justice comissioner Viviane Reding against cartel
Swiss indicators in Ch back, whereas other countries up.
BIZ, sovereign debt downgarde increases refinancing bank costs.
Ursina Kubli, sarasin, purchase power parity chf undervalued 10 -20% vs chf and eur.
Bad review on real estate.
ARM Holdings, impressive performance , apple designer
Hiroshi Mikitani, founder of Rakuten, Japanese ebay, comapares business leaders of his country to the galapagos islands, afraid of competition
fuw SAYS KEEP INVESTED AMID THE STORM, CHF STRENGTH AFFECTING RESULTS, Zurich and Helvetia affected by Souther Europe
interview to gerard ransperger, swisss deflation cause of chf strength
17-7-2011
Holcim goes east, russian president and conseillers federaux assist to new factory opening. FINMA and UBS excused, Hayek speaks 4 clearer BNS goals, green and left against strong chf ( p.15 article)
Rating Agencies stocks are outperforming in spite of past mistakes! Good news for CH banks which are targetted once again by US GVMNT ( p 27). We re just losers and escape goats. Asia attractive valuation after correction ( p. 30)
EMS chemie , blocher group, does very well.
16.7.2011
finma and ubs not guilty ( p 19), uster, ems chemie good results, chf recipee , let chf exports fall. Wow! Credit suisse under scrutiny for tax evasion, same ubs scenario, thomas flury sees eur/chf 1.20/1.30 realistic, holcim buy in russia w/ putin and bundesrat @ cerimony. Left and green party for pegging currency ( p.15). Rating agencies r doing well ! Really, what abt past mistakes ? Asia , buy opportgunity after correction
20.7.2011
new ceo for sonova, schaffner chf income down , Editorial against state interventioon on chf strenght, once gaian, however arguments are biased , proposals too. p. 15 Credit suisse attacked by minister of justce ( p.20) Nigeria, promise of Africa ( p 29)
measures to fight stronger chf ; make albor work more and curb their salary
23.07.2010
Bruckhardt , margins under pressure., editorial of Thomas Straubbaar on transfer and fiscal union in the EU on the model of Switzerland.
Pharma performance.
CS does not recommend neither peg to eur nor sovereign fund proposed by UBS, however there shpoudl be an expansive policy and a clear goal, in line w/ what said by hayek. Cs is under assault by US for trivial bank acocunts and against any bilateral agreement see http://bloom.bg/nc3DZZ
CHF exports r falling vis a vis Germany, really!so what next , sould switzerland take part to greece rescue ? Sarasin always positive eur/chf 1.30 by mid of next year
CIRRUS CRUS , microchip designer depending on aapl, pe 13
good article on GE
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)