Friday, February 20, 2015
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
is Russia going to wage war against Europe? Pavel Felgenauer / Echo of Moscow
http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/albac/1489342-echo/ is Russia going to wage war against Europe?
In this interview considerations of brilliant military analyst Pavel Felgenauer , the guy who predicted the invasion of Georgia based on public available information. In summary, what is worrying is not the plan to invade Europe and arrive in Berlin ( a complex task after all) but the attitude of Mr Putin and his top military brass who believe they can do so. This will dictate their decision to stop or not war in Ukraine. Clearly the balance could change if foreign technology were provided to Ukrainians like in Afghanistan not a long time ago when American Stingers were downing soviet fighter jets. The fall of the USSR ensued. This time the trick could be made only with the shipment of non lethal weapons like drones employed by the Russian army in the Donbass to increase the precision and rapidity of Ukrainian attack and defence. And by the way these drones are provided and licensed by Israel like the Mistrals by France, ie foreign agents which Russia wants out of Ukraine.
On a personal note , a new doctrine is being imposed by the Kremlin, self defence of foreign countries is not allowed with the import of new technology. This is clearly against the spirit of competition , not surprising if we think about Russia but also Germany,France and unfortunately the whole of the EU based on that very principle. The crisis was triggered because of the demands of a majority of Ukrainians backed by Brussels to sign an agreement with the EU.
In this interview considerations of brilliant military analyst Pavel Felgenauer , the guy who predicted the invasion of Georgia based on public available information. In summary, what is worrying is not the plan to invade Europe and arrive in Berlin ( a complex task after all) but the attitude of Mr Putin and his top military brass who believe they can do so. This will dictate their decision to stop or not war in Ukraine. Clearly the balance could change if foreign technology were provided to Ukrainians like in Afghanistan not a long time ago when American Stingers were downing soviet fighter jets. The fall of the USSR ensued. This time the trick could be made only with the shipment of non lethal weapons like drones employed by the Russian army in the Donbass to increase the precision and rapidity of Ukrainian attack and defence. And by the way these drones are provided and licensed by Israel like the Mistrals by France, ie foreign agents which Russia wants out of Ukraine.
On a personal note , a new doctrine is being imposed by the Kremlin, self defence of foreign countries is not allowed with the import of new technology. This is clearly against the spirit of competition , not surprising if we think about Russia but also Germany,France and unfortunately the whole of the EU based on that very principle. The crisis was triggered because of the demands of a majority of Ukrainians backed by Brussels to sign an agreement with the EU.
Sunday, February 08, 2015
higher taxes are good
economist
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21642199-behavioural-argument-higher-taxes-no-representation-without-taxation
HOW can poor countries get better gov-ernments? A recent paper* by Lucy
Martin of Yale University suggests higher
taxes could help. Low-income African
countries levy taxes worth about 17% of
GDP each year, whereas the countries of
the European Union take in nearly 40% on
average. In some cases, foreign aid makes
up some of the difference: according to the
IMF it constitutes about 10% of GDP in the
Democratic Republic of Congo. In Liberia
the figure is more like 15%. In 2012 the
whole continent received $51 billion in foreign handouts.
Low taxes and high aid flows, Ms Martin thinks, are a recipe for disengaged citizens and therefore forless effective governments. Her argument hinges on “loss
aversion”, an economic proposition that
the pain of a loss is greater than the pleasure afforded by an equal gain. Most people, the thinking goes, care more about losing what they have than about getting
something extra.
A similar rationale, Ms Martin argues,
applies to aid and taxes. If aid money is siphoned off by corrupt politicians, people
are miffed, but if they discover that their
taxes have suffered the same fate, they are
furious. In other words, taxpayers feel the
loss of money they once had more acutely
than that of funds they might have received. You would therefore expect a hightax country to have more politically engaged citizens and thus better functioning
institutions than one that depended on
aid, even iftheirgovernment budgets were
a similar share ofGDP
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21642199-behavioural-argument-higher-taxes-no-representation-without-taxation
HOW can poor countries get better gov-ernments? A recent paper* by Lucy
Martin of Yale University suggests higher
taxes could help. Low-income African
countries levy taxes worth about 17% of
GDP each year, whereas the countries of
the European Union take in nearly 40% on
average. In some cases, foreign aid makes
up some of the difference: according to the
IMF it constitutes about 10% of GDP in the
Democratic Republic of Congo. In Liberia
the figure is more like 15%. In 2012 the
whole continent received $51 billion in foreign handouts.
Low taxes and high aid flows, Ms Martin thinks, are a recipe for disengaged citizens and therefore forless effective governments. Her argument hinges on “loss
aversion”, an economic proposition that
the pain of a loss is greater than the pleasure afforded by an equal gain. Most people, the thinking goes, care more about losing what they have than about getting
something extra.
A similar rationale, Ms Martin argues,
applies to aid and taxes. If aid money is siphoned off by corrupt politicians, people
are miffed, but if they discover that their
taxes have suffered the same fate, they are
furious. In other words, taxpayers feel the
loss of money they once had more acutely
than that of funds they might have received. You would therefore expect a hightax country to have more politically engaged citizens and thus better functioning
institutions than one that depended on
aid, even iftheirgovernment budgets were
a similar share ofGDP
High taxes, it
seems, make for high civic engagement
seems, make for high civic engagement
on pegs and debt , today's evils
from the eocnomist
In the era of the classical gold standard, in the late 19th century, nations were governed by men drawn from the creditor classes. It was no surprise that sound money was their priority. But in an era of mass democracy, that is no longer the case. Few voters care about the exchange rate, but they do care about borrowing costs and jobs. Markets know this, givingthem an incentive to attackpegs that lackcredibility.
In the era of the classical gold standard, in the late 19th century, nations were governed by men drawn from the creditor classes. It was no surprise that sound money was their priority. But in an era of mass democracy, that is no longer the case. Few voters care about the exchange rate, but they do care about borrowing costs and jobs. Markets know this, givingthem an incentive to attackpegs that lackcredibility.
One reason for this divergence is the effect of investment flows. Most currency transactions have little to do with exports and imports. The daily value of worldgoods trade in 2013 was $52 billion; daily foreign-exchange turnover in the same year was $5.3 trillion, a thousand times larger. Investors are foreverswitching from one currency to another in search of a better return. A common tactic is the “carry trade”, borrowing money in a currency
with a low interest rate and investing theproceeds in a country with a higher one. Such huge flows of money make it harder
to maintain pegs.
to maintain pegs.
In some cases, such as Ireland, this increase merely reflects the fact that financial-sector debt has ended up on the government’s balance-sheet because of bank rescues. Shifting debt from the private to the public sectoris in some respects a positive step; governments can borrow at a cheaperrate than companies and individuals and, if they have their own currency, have considerable scope to expand their balance-sheets
The report has various proposals for reducing the impact of bad debts, such as shared-equity mortgages, which would enable lenders to enjoy some of the gains from higherhouse prices, in return fortaking some ofthe pain from lower ones. It is not clear, however, whether such an idea would take hold without official help. Lenders would surely charge higher rates
to compensate for the risk of loss. Reducing tax incentives for debt is another good idea, but one sure to meet fierce resistance, particularly in America, where tax relief on mortgages is regarded as a human right. After a while, like any feelgood drug, debt becomes addictive
Congressovertheissue.
In an article for Foreign Affairs magazine last month, Fred Bergsten of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics argued that a three-pronged, more aggressive US policy would be the “smart strategy”, whatever happened with the TPP. First, the administration should enforce existing law and restore its international credibility on the issue by
formally designating countries such as China currency manipulators. Second, any country manipulating its currency
should have its goods subjected to countervailing — or punitive — duties. And third, the US should be prepared to
wage war in the markets and use “countervailingcurrencyintervention”.
China buying a billion dollars to weaken its currency should be countered by a US move to buy the same in renminbi and maintain the status quo, MrBergsten argued in his article.
“A few implementations of this policy, or perhaps even just its announcement, should be enough to deter future currency manipulation,”he wrote. That approach is unlikely to become
US government policy any time soon. But in Washington, the politics of currencyarebecomingvolatileonceagain
to compensate for the risk of loss. Reducing tax incentives for debt is another good idea, but one sure to meet fierce resistance, particularly in America, where tax relief on mortgages is regarded as a human right. After a while, like any feelgood drug, debt becomes addictive
Congressovertheissue.
In an article for Foreign Affairs magazine last month, Fred Bergsten of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics argued that a three-pronged, more aggressive US policy would be the “smart strategy”, whatever happened with the TPP. First, the administration should enforce existing law and restore its international credibility on the issue by
formally designating countries such as China currency manipulators. Second, any country manipulating its currency
should have its goods subjected to countervailing — or punitive — duties. And third, the US should be prepared to
wage war in the markets and use “countervailingcurrencyintervention”.
China buying a billion dollars to weaken its currency should be countered by a US move to buy the same in renminbi and maintain the status quo, MrBergsten argued in his article.
“A few implementations of this policy, or perhaps even just its announcement, should be enough to deter future currency manipulation,”he wrote. That approach is unlikely to become
US government policy any time soon. But in Washington, the politics of currencyarebecomingvolatileonceagain
Exports of hydrocarbons from America are already booming. Lifting the ban on crude-oil exports should be next / inetresting article
NAZI U-boats in the Gulf of Mexico in 1942-43,had a deadly hunting season prompting American military planners to put safety first when working out how to ship fuel for the liberation of Europe. Seven decades later, the Sweeny refinery in Texas is still safely (and oddly) inland, out of range of German guns—and playing a part in the rebirth of
Having foiled the Nazis, Texas may yet have a role to play in thwarting the Kremlin....
Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21642179-exports-hydrocarbons-america-are-already-booming-lifting-ban-crude-oil-exports
Having foiled the Nazis, Texas may yet have a role to play in thwarting the Kremlin....
Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21642179-exports-hydrocarbons-america-are-already-booming-lifting-ban-crude-oil-exports
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