risks of the cdos . see article economy.com
http://www.economy.com/into-the-woods.asp?src=economy_hp
also fuw :
Sollte ein weiterer Hedge Fund in die Bedrouille geraten und einen Totalverlust erleiden, könnte dies zu einem Schock führen. Zandi sieht dabei vor allem die Liquidität als Gefahr.
the question is how will economy behave with a housing slump while the world economz is in a great shape. the world economz and not credit derivatives come to the rescue of the US ? but where does the ultimate risk ly in the credit derivative equation and who will bear the losses in this game without triggering the usual collateral damage , a domino effect ?
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Friday, July 20, 2007
week 13-20 July 07
relevant news /articles
FUW
François-Xavier de Mallmann, Leiter Investment Banking Schweiz von Goldman Sachs, über die Perspektiven im Markt für Übernahmen
«Der Druck der Finanzinvestoren nimmt zu»
Die doppelte Dividende der deutschen Ratspräsidentschaft der Europäischen Union im ersten Halbjahr Umwelttechnologien sind ein Riesenmarkt
Julius-Bär-Analyst Norbert Rücker gewichtet saubere Kohle gleich wie die alternativen, erneuerbaren Energien Sonne und Wind
«Schlüsseltechnologie im Kampf gegen den Klimawandel»
FUW
François-Xavier de Mallmann, Leiter Investment Banking Schweiz von Goldman Sachs, über die Perspektiven im Markt für Übernahmen
«Der Druck der Finanzinvestoren nimmt zu»
Die doppelte Dividende der deutschen Ratspräsidentschaft der Europäischen Union im ersten Halbjahr Umwelttechnologien sind ein Riesenmarkt
Julius-Bär-Analyst Norbert Rücker gewichtet saubere Kohle gleich wie die alternativen, erneuerbaren Energien Sonne und Wind
«Schlüsseltechnologie im Kampf gegen den Klimawandel»
complexity and transparency = diverstiy and chaos ?
"The bears also argue that CDOs and other innovative structures have, in fact, made the financial system less resilient because of their complexity and lack of transparency."
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
the suspicion is that usd will depreciate and asian countries will follow. focus in terms of action should be switched from europe to us where growth should be revived . so far depreciation is the best way out of any deficit and given the chinese economy the bet is that inflation will be kept at bay. depreciation is a liquidity measure making us goods cheaper , increasing therefore the economic growth and keeping the slowdown of the us consumption under the carpet .
Monday, July 16, 2007
Thursday, July 12, 2007
eur strength
what if eur weakens? france would not be a loser since its resort would allow it to have a STABLE HARD CURRENCY INFLOW through tourism while being more competitive in weak industries . Germany is not in the same position given its industry exporting state of the art products with an inherent technological advantage that make the demand inelastic but a strong eur necssary to stop any resurgence of increases in workers salary , ie inflation.
eur strength , a reason to stop structural reforms and make the region weaker ? given the usd weakness and all the asian currencies pegged to it , the question is whether Europe is not being penalized by profiting of a strong currency and stopping any structural reforms to cut its costs
eur strength , a reason to stop structural reforms and make the region weaker ? given the usd weakness and all the asian currencies pegged to it , the question is whether Europe is not being penalized by profiting of a strong currency and stopping any structural reforms to cut its costs
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
ahead of 2q earnigs volumes still low, market direction less , failing to break resistance of 8100 for Dax. Similar swings have beenm present throughout the past 4 weeks . eur all time high , 1.3720 eur/usd , does not help. excuse for reducing stock positions. us treasuries yield lower , spread gap with europe tightens : is this the interest rates conundrum ? first company reports lower than expected , retail sector hit by the slowing demand in building ; repercussions also fro consumption. see home depot and sears.
Sotchi next olympic games capital, thanx to Putin. Interesting to see that Mr Oleg Deripaska, russian tycoon of aluminium with Rusal is profiting with its new Strabag acquisition, austrian building company that soared 140% since the beginning of 2007. In Switzerland we assist to the same trend with Vekselberg snapping up crown jewels of the machine industry , promising lucrative deals thanx to his proximity to Putin. How is Mr Putin rewarded economically ? Curiously Rusal will soon be listed abroad in London and not Moscow. Yukos was one of the first companies to embrace western standards and capital showed how to export in an elegant and legal way cash company out of the country in the most discrete way. Unfortunately it was dismantled by public prosecutors with the accusation of having embezzled tax authorities. So, what about Rusal and the kremlin cronies ? More clues on the book of Anna Politkovskaya on Rusal ?
Sotchi next olympic games capital, thanx to Putin. Interesting to see that Mr Oleg Deripaska, russian tycoon of aluminium with Rusal is profiting with its new Strabag acquisition, austrian building company that soared 140% since the beginning of 2007. In Switzerland we assist to the same trend with Vekselberg snapping up crown jewels of the machine industry , promising lucrative deals thanx to his proximity to Putin. How is Mr Putin rewarded economically ? Curiously Rusal will soon be listed abroad in London and not Moscow. Yukos was one of the first companies to embrace western standards and capital showed how to export in an elegant and legal way cash company out of the country in the most discrete way. Unfortunately it was dismantled by public prosecutors with the accusation of having embezzled tax authorities. So, what about Rusal and the kremlin cronies ? More clues on the book of Anna Politkovskaya on Rusal ?
Friday, July 06, 2007
Thursday, July 05, 2007
a virtuoso of finance and the web
http://www.bionicturtle.com/
aware of his limits biut nonetheless curious and confident on the utility of statistical tools.
David Harper
http://www.investopedia.com/contributors/default.aspx?id=17
I quote :
"Before he started his own gig, he consulted for lots of public company boards, where he learned that companies look entirely different from the inside.
His first rule of investing? "Do lots of homework, dig deep or seriously consider not playing. But digging deep only earns you into ignorance, more or less. Don't forget: You'll never know what's really going on. Dragons be thar but, alas, nobody draws them on the map for you."
Some people are extraordinary , as Kissinger puts it, they are leading by the example .
http://www.bionicturtle.com/
aware of his limits biut nonetheless curious and confident on the utility of statistical tools.
David Harper
http://www.investopedia.com/contributors/default.aspx?id=17
I quote :
"Before he started his own gig, he consulted for lots of public company boards, where he learned that companies look entirely different from the inside.
His first rule of investing? "Do lots of homework, dig deep or seriously consider not playing. But digging deep only earns you into ignorance, more or less. Don't forget: You'll never know what's really going on. Dragons be thar but, alas, nobody draws them on the map for you."
Some people are extraordinary , as Kissinger puts it, they are leading by the example .
today what a day assembling the pc desktop table and exposed to all my stupidity. according to the brochure it should take only 30 min. it took me 4 hours to finish the work. trial and error approach since i could not figure out the drawings of the instructions. and here the waste of time .
back to markets :
main points, stock market hesitant , china corrects 5% , bulls put it in the right prospective given the exorbitant surge of the past 12 months but a lot of investors are cautious and don't rule out a correction. 2dq results start in a week. a lot of bullishness on oil stocks ( see total and rd), mechel keeps climbing following its excellent results that highlight its mining value but who has the highest target ? in france a lot of interest for carrefour ( domestic demand up ? ) but also eads ( global orders , renewal of airplane fleet, dubai investment?). Some interesting reports from UBS on Greek Banks ( Piraeus Bank) , Alphabank in Russia, an upgrade of Turkey by CS. Africa is in the radar screen, to play with South African Stocks and Multinationals. The name that stands out is Alstom ! China Mengnium Dairy skyrocketing , because of the milk price ? Everybody talking about food prices ( Cosan in Brasil) , water stocks . Pharma in crisis given the tight regulatory environment , credit rating worsening ! What about biotech , f.ex. Intercell, or medical technology , Medtronic or Phonak, not to mention the report om nanotechnology and its synergies with pharma? INTC always to be watched , technically interesting as the whole tech sector , Infineon benefiting from IPOD sales ?
Bond Yields , analysts forecasting a rate cut , even Dr Doom doing it , soft landing scenario taking over ? Lehman Brother strategist recommending Brasilioan Bonds given the 3% inflation rate.
Last but not least currencies , what to do with the weak dollar ? Oil , above $70 stopping the markets bulls. CMOs are away, private equity helps: Blackston is employing the cash it raised from its public listing to buy the hotel chain Hilton and REIT are in demand. No wonder rich are more sophisticated investors and they buy property, tangible assets. at the end of the day it is about how much land you control like in the good old times. So what about Swiss Real Estate ? PSP ( commercial surfaces not restrained by Lex Furgler ) and Allreal + Mobimo constrained but legislation will evolve.
back to markets :
main points, stock market hesitant , china corrects 5% , bulls put it in the right prospective given the exorbitant surge of the past 12 months but a lot of investors are cautious and don't rule out a correction. 2dq results start in a week. a lot of bullishness on oil stocks ( see total and rd), mechel keeps climbing following its excellent results that highlight its mining value but who has the highest target ? in france a lot of interest for carrefour ( domestic demand up ? ) but also eads ( global orders , renewal of airplane fleet, dubai investment?). Some interesting reports from UBS on Greek Banks ( Piraeus Bank) , Alphabank in Russia, an upgrade of Turkey by CS. Africa is in the radar screen, to play with South African Stocks and Multinationals. The name that stands out is Alstom ! China Mengnium Dairy skyrocketing , because of the milk price ? Everybody talking about food prices ( Cosan in Brasil) , water stocks . Pharma in crisis given the tight regulatory environment , credit rating worsening ! What about biotech , f.ex. Intercell, or medical technology , Medtronic or Phonak, not to mention the report om nanotechnology and its synergies with pharma? INTC always to be watched , technically interesting as the whole tech sector , Infineon benefiting from IPOD sales ?
Bond Yields , analysts forecasting a rate cut , even Dr Doom doing it , soft landing scenario taking over ? Lehman Brother strategist recommending Brasilioan Bonds given the 3% inflation rate.
Last but not least currencies , what to do with the weak dollar ? Oil , above $70 stopping the markets bulls. CMOs are away, private equity helps: Blackston is employing the cash it raised from its public listing to buy the hotel chain Hilton and REIT are in demand. No wonder rich are more sophisticated investors and they buy property, tangible assets. at the end of the day it is about how much land you control like in the good old times. So what about Swiss Real Estate ? PSP ( commercial surfaces not restrained by Lex Furgler ) and Allreal + Mobimo constrained but legislation will evolve.
Monday, July 02, 2007
USD weak , liquidity hgh . why ?
something to observe , the decline of the usd against pundits expectations . the best way out of crisis is to depreciate its currency . long term treasuries up , confirm no inflation risk perceived by markets and the fed. depreciation means also competitive advantage of china in cheap labor is intact while exports keep rising as attested by the strong figures of last gdp and reserves in usd are reinvested in treasuries supporting favorable liquidity for the us . this is how china has turned into an important rib of he american economy. what about europe, cant they play the same trick with other continents ? africa, asia ? loooks eur does not have the same clout as usd in the world economy, no wonder german bunds are more sensitive and euro rates are higher relative to the current growth . is this a dumping policy of china and usa together?
P/E low ? why
given high earnings the stock prices do not reflect high valuations of the 1997 in terms of p/e. yet some differences are worth pointing out, globalisation has affeced also the stock market with broader diversity and higher stock supply for investors willing to invest in no traditional markets .this has also a dampening effect on stock prices , deflating historically high equity prices for industrialised markets like diluted earnings for a new stock equity issue. what is the relationship of lower prices with equity premiums given the lost competitive advantage of former first movers ? ( see gordon growth model http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/012104.asp). have the perceived earnings diminished given the global dilution ? the world is richer , printing new money and spurring high growth from china. however global resources are not enough to sustain former ratios previous to sept 11. has dollar depreciation lowered global stock purchasing power deflating its p/e ?
something to observe , the decline of the usd against pundits expectations . the best way out of crisis is to depreciate its currency . long term treasuries up , confirm no inflation risk perceived by markets and the fed. depreciation means also competitive advantage of china in cheap labor is intact while exports keep rising as attested by the strong figures of last gdp and reserves in usd are reinvested in treasuries supporting favorable liquidity for the us . this is how china has turned into an important rib of he american economy. what about europe, cant they play the same trick with other continents ? africa, asia ? loooks eur does not have the same clout as usd in the world economy, no wonder german bunds are more sensitive and euro rates are higher relative to the current growth . is this a dumping policy of china and usa together?
P/E low ? why
given high earnings the stock prices do not reflect high valuations of the 1997 in terms of p/e. yet some differences are worth pointing out, globalisation has affeced also the stock market with broader diversity and higher stock supply for investors willing to invest in no traditional markets .this has also a dampening effect on stock prices , deflating historically high equity prices for industrialised markets like diluted earnings for a new stock equity issue. what is the relationship of lower prices with equity premiums given the lost competitive advantage of former first movers ? ( see gordon growth model http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/012104.asp). have the perceived earnings diminished given the global dilution ? the world is richer , printing new money and spurring high growth from china. however global resources are not enough to sustain former ratios previous to sept 11. has dollar depreciation lowered global stock purchasing power deflating its p/e ?
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