modus.01.06

7.08.06
south african rand, rates 8%, sunw upgrade by UBS, gold and uran on demand , cimsa turkey , infrastructure ( komatsu,abb,united technologies, vinci, atlas copco

3.08.06
china, rates up, renimbi up USD=7,60?, stock market down ? recommended china telecom, china medical + shandong weiGAO( cmed.qq,8t99.hix), Solar Power
LATIN AMERica, AGRARIAN COmpanies , cresud ( g. soros), brasilagio, cosan
Agriculture dealers, Daniesl Midland (ADM),
Celluloid , ARACRUZ

Cat Bonds
Forex Fund ??



1.08.06
south african rand , appreciation??? bonds ??
sell knock ins options ???
csfb : banks overweihght ( see italy, japan, thailand)

28.07.06
brazil , best among lamerica , target bovespa 48000, see mining, oil , aerospace

26.07.06
osiris , ipo, 31 july,
metals , go long, see rogers 2018
dna ??? research ?
amd/ intc
basket alternative energies abn amro
royal dutch, news, chart . breaking resistance ?
India, what'sup, rates up , currency risk, see csfb
dna; amercian pharma .
usd weakness ?

go long abb
1.07.06
fed tightens : 5.25 , is it the end ? soon company figures july august. try invest garanti bank or bonds
€26.06.06

emerging currencies under pressure , aprticularly see try and huf, ie those with large account deficts . the question is , for how long and why the USD does not depreciate at the same extent ?

equity markets consolidating , recovering some losses but the game is open and the trend a question mark . will the good company results come to the rescue of the indices propping up the world economy with an injection of optimism or will the inflationary fear coupled with a usd currency crisis tak over ?

in switzerland , roche is doing very well , good news from their pipeline


RECOMMENDED COMPANIES : RIETER , SAURER ( see textile machines)

22.06.06

qui sotto alcune osservazioni tratte da alcune analisi del CS (chissà che non si possa trovare la gallina dalle uova d’oro…).

In generale i fondamentali restano solidi in tutta l’Asia. La recente correzione sul mercato azionario sembra aver eliminato gran parte dell’eccesso speculativo sui mercati asiatici e ripristinato valutazioni azionarie eque.

Le principali conclusioni da trarre dal sell-off:

• I mercati con valutazioni P/E eccessive prime della fase di correzione, Giappone a 21 volte i fwd earnings ed India a 19 volte, hanno registrato le perdite maggiori
• I mercati con valutazioni ragionevoli, malaysia e A shares cinesi, hanno regsitrato perdite minori
• La sincronizzazione della politica monetaria restrittiva della FED e delle banche centrali asiatiche è molto pronunciata
• I solidi fondamentali implicano maggiori possibilità di rialzi di tassi nel 2007

Il CS consiglia la seguente strategia:

• Mantenere gli investimenti in azioni dato il protrarsi della forte crescita degli utili delle maggiori società asiatiche, ma prepararsi ad altra volatilità nel breve termine.
• Sovrappesare large cap asiatiche come immobili (Capitaland a Singapore), banche (Bank Central Asia in indonesia) e titoli al consumo (Astra Agro Lestari – piantagioni in Indonesia)
• Ripristinare posizioni difensive in Giappone (per 12 mesi)

Tema speciale azioni: ETANOLO Il rapporto prezzo produzione è mutato a favore dell’etanolo ed a scapito del petrolio. Si crede che la domanda di etanolo nei prossimi anni aumenterà notevolmente anche perché sostenuta da politiche statali (v. USA). CS consiglia quindi l’investimento nelle materie prime alla base dell’etanolo, zucchero e mais, e nelle aziende legate al tema: Archers Daniel Midland, Monsanto, Pacific Ethanol, Cosan SA Industria, Abengoa, Suedzucker, CSR.

21.06.06
An Japan festhalten,
abb , gold, turkey



20.06.06
gold and silver under pressure . olar shares.
check article
FuW-Serie: Ein hoher Ölpreis kennt viele Gewinner
Solarenergie

4.06.06

big correction occurred , usd weakness, inflation ? , emerging markets retreating, hedge funds active on the dipping markets. what's next ? gold ? alternative enrgies , hedging ? soem companies on alternativbe energies
Energiekontor,Vestas Wind Systems, Renewable Energy ,Conergy,Plambeck , Gamesa ( spain)
FuW-Serie: Ein hoher Ölpreis kennt viele Gewinner
Windkraftwerke
Hohe Renditechancen mit geringen Kursavancen
$turkish banks
Turkiye Vakiflar, eine türkische Bank mit einem grossen Potenzial im Wachstumsmarkt Türkei.

strategy : close put RUK
CHECK TURKEY BANK, EXIT STRATEGY TRY

ACCUMULATE GOLD


9.05.05
swithcv rog+novn in glaxo +astra zeneca
etf south africa
newmont ?
gold higher = real interest rates lower , target usd 850 log term( ML)
8.05.06

blogs
http://www.phatinvestor.com/
http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/06/markets/financial_blogs/index.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/

3.4.06
swiss re
russia revaluation, consumer stocks. WMD, PYATCHE, BALTIKA,LYABE,LEBEDIANSKI
STEEL SECTOR, UTILITIES:BELDODERONERGO
1.4.06
Blom Bank
CVRD Mining
real estate Japan, Nomura
new zeland and iceland ( 7,2% and 11%)
Pyatch Sp GDR Reg-S (FIVE)
check paper
check evraz russia

31.03.06
check GE call

27.03.06
check insurance

26.03.06
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9742
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9799
http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=9789

deutsche telecom , dividend 5%

sunw, orcl ?

Consolidation ?abhängig. Ist er chancen-risiko-orientiert, wird er nicht zur gleichen Konklusion kommen wie einer, der grundlegend in Aktien investiert sein will. Vorstellbar ist, dass die kommenden Wochen kurzfristig noch höhere Kurse bringen. Darüber hinaus sehen wir Euro Stoxx und SMI aber in eine längere Konsolidierung einmünden, die auf Sicht einiger Wochen auch die Konturen einer kräftigeren Korrektur annehmen kann: alles eine Frage des Timings.Roland Vogt

Mitsubishi Estate, Mitsui Fudosan und Sumitomo Realty legten 2 bis 3% ....

«Nachdem der indonesische Präsident Yudohoyono im letzten Jahr die immensen Ölsubventionen gestrichen hatte, stieg die Inflation rasant auf 17%, weshalb die Zinsen massiv angehoben wurden. Der erwartete Einbruch des Privatkonsums wurde durch Direktzahlungen an einkommensschwache Familien abgefedert. Zusammen mit der robusten Exportnachfrage und der soliden Agrarproduktion half dies, die Konjunktur zu stabilisieren.....Eine konjunkturelle Beschleunigung sowie graduell sinkende Zinsen unterstützen unserer Meinung nach den Banken- und den Konsumsektor. Trotz des jüngsten Preisanstiegs favorisieren wir Matahari Putra Prima (Detailhandel) und Bank Rakyat.»

22.03.06
real estate funds in europe
middle east underwent correction

21.03.06
philippines, investment

18.03.06
gold price and china reserves deemed to increase
genentech

16.03.06
usd stable at 1.30
newyork governor :
low interest rates = chinese savings purchasing US T and not high productivity with low inflation. other forms of inflation such as rela estate prices .
20.02.06
werner merzbacher, samler und anleger
new mont mining, what's up?
Japan , down, real estate ?Komatsu ?
Real estate investment trusts (Reits) an Popularität gewonnen. Diese Aktiengesellschaften unterhalten ein Portfolio von Liegenschaften und schütten den Ertrag aus Verkauf und Miete als Dividende aus. Die meisten Reits investieren in gewerbliche Liegenschaften: Sie versprechen höhere Renditen, zumal der Bevölkerungsschwund die Nachfrage nach Wohnbauten schmälert.Vergangenes Jahr hat sich die Zahl der kotierten Reits auf 28 verdoppelt. Der Reit-Index an der Tokioter Börse notierte vergangene Woche auf einem Allzeithoch von 1703. Marktbeobachter warnen aber vor einer neuerlichen Blase im Immobiliensektor. Die um lukrative Liegenschaften buhlenden Reits heizen die Immobilienpreise an. Nicht im gleichen Ausmass mitgezogen haben die Mieteinnahmen. Die durchschnittliche Rendite der Immobilien-Trusts war 2003 fünf Prozentpunkte höher als die Rendite der zehnjähriger Regierungsanleihen. Der Vorsprung ist auf zwei bis drei Prozentpunkte geschmolze.....Ein schärferer Wind wird Japans Immobilienbranche entgegenwehen, wenn die Bank of Japan (BOJ) die geldpolitischen Zügel strafft. Von der Null-Zins-Politik profitieren die Reits. Manche haben sich mit billigen Bankkrediten hochgradig fremdfinanziert. BOJ-Gouverneur Toshihiko Fukui deutet seit geraumer Zeit an, er halte einen Kurswechsel in der Zinspolitik demnächst für angebracht. Zudem soll die Finanzaufsichtsbehörde begonnen haben, die bisweilen exzessiven Bankausleihungen an den Immobiliensektor unter die Lupe zu nehmen.



16-02.06
GOOGLE , DOWN ?
see US list from Credit Suisse
switch PFE
Brazil Telecom?

Russia Auctions RUB 3.5 billion of 30-year domestic bonds
Russia successfully auctioned RUB 3.5 billion (USD 120 million) at an average yield of 6.99%. The 30-year auction was 6.47
times oversubscribed as investors placed bids worth RUB 22.4 billion. (USD 775 million). The treasury also placed RUB 8 billion
of ten-year notes at an average yield of 6.73%. The Ministry of finance stated that it is their intention to continue to develop local
markets and form a yield curve with a very wide spectrum of maturities. This development coincides with substantial retirement of
hard currency bonds. The proceeds of the 30-year auction will partly be used to finance pension funds.
Juan Briceno, Phone +41 44 332 92 83, juan.briceno@credit-suisse.com

FM 07.02.06
Introducing a commodities index to a diversified portfolio has historically reduced overall risk while increasing returns...because of low correaltion to stocks and bonds...
UBS open end perles on Sugar and CS sof commodities certificateplus (e.mail)

1.2.05
pfe keeps rising go long short rogn ?

31.1.05
going short the mrkt, decreasing position . looking for info on rlnc and increaisng weight try
29.1.05
strong volatility , this time gas and opil price + gepolitical tensions with Iran. Japan, crazy , sony +15% in one day . Liverdoor scandal forgotten.

Check RUB domestic bonds for diversification purpose.


26.01.06
-CHINA BECOMING 4TH WORLDWIDE ECONOMY BEHIND USA, JAPAN, GERMANY
-NOKIA: Q4 FIGURES TODAY AT 11.00 SWISS TIME. ML BUY OPINION.
-REPSOL: TO WRITE DOWN RESERVES BY 25%. SWITCH IN ROYAL DUTCH.
-BMW: LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL. ML DOWNGRADE TO NEUTRAL RATING.
-SIEMENS: BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS. HEDGES CLOSING SHORTS.
-INFINEON: STOCK TO WATCH. IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS + SEXY CHART.
-AXA: SOLID Q4 NUMBERS. ML BUY OPINION. PRICE TARGET EUR 31.50. -DEUTSCHE TELEKOM: KPI'S LOOK OK. HEDGES TO CLOSE SOME SHORTS.
-RICHEMONT: GOOD XMAS. ML REITERATE BUY RATING. TARGET CHF 63.
-VERBUND: HEDGES TAKE SOME PROFITS. SWITCH IN FORTUM (FUM1V FH). -LINDT & SPRUNGLI: ML UPGRADE FROM NEUTRAL TO BUY RECOMMENDATION



25.01.05
Bonaparte ( B)
reliance : spin off , sum of the values, broker advice ?
caplay, japanese real estate , value number ?
truecorp, thai, telcom
149254
c heck russia
allianz

24.01.05
check russia pxatcheroska and teleocms. brl
18.01.05
correction goes, politcal scandal in japan, nikkei below 15500. shares affected? financial stocks look sound. techno blood bath, intc down 20% in 2 days ! check mining and oil ( nem, rd). brl. abb, allianz.


17.01.05
so put so call nem
markets are retracing following highraw material prices . nikei below 16000, finally ! check again brl and mxn.

12.01.05
emerging market corprations ?
taiwan?
sugar?
chadoa ?
see articles fuw korea
homegate annuncio zh
www.craiglist.com
10.01.06
correction, causes , overbought ? underweight pharama overweight industrials ( abb, sgs, sulzer,adecco, schindler )?
norislk beaten down, ??

08.01.06
06 started very well . however eu interst rate policy will weigh in triggering volatirlity.

private equity , swisscanto, get out of hfunds , proposals?
country : japan higher, brazil ( exporters?)and russia ( domestic lines)
insurance sector : allianz
focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp
what about domestic emerg markl bonds ?

fuw
chck article lichtenstein, us markets, sap, berna an novn,mikron,swisscanto,sp bearish ( see interest rates), gas news and shares, south africa.

from the emst

The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.

So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.

Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.

modus06

08.01.06
06 started very well .

focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp

The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.

So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.

Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.

modus06

06 started very well .

focus in it given higher corporate spending?
check weightings orcl, sunw, intc, sap.add other positions ? cap gemini,cien, glw
get rid of hkd, usd currency fund, hfund, check gbp

The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.

So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.

Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.

modus06

06 started very well .

The most interesting issue, however, will be the extent to which 2006 sees a further move back to the investment climate of 1906—or at least to the climate of the early years of the 20th century. Money was cheap; bond yields in established markets were low; equities relied on dividend yields for support. Inflation in most developed countries has been very much the same in the first five years of the 21st century as it was in the first five years of the 20th. And there was a burst of globalisation that demanded to be financed.

So what did investors do? They scoured the world for yield. They plunged into railways in Argentina; invested in plantations in India and mines in Africa; and, most dramatically, bought tsarist bonds. Russia was the fastest-growing European country, the primary supplier of raw materials to its more developed west. The mechanisms were different: public offers rather than private equity; investment trusts rather than hedge funds. The source of savings was different. But the pressure to get yield in a world of low inflation was much the same.

Historical parallels are seductive but dangerous. This is no longer an age of empires and power is moving away from the established developed world. So this burst of globalisation is more sustainable. But it won’t continue at this pace for ever. The more wisely the markets allocate investment funds, the longer will be this growth phase of the global economy. If 2006 looks like being a more difficult year for financial markets than 2005, which it does, that means there is even greater responsibility on investors to be calm and cautious.