Monday, July 02, 2007

USD weak , liquidity hgh . why ?

something to observe , the decline of the usd against pundits expectations . the best way out of crisis is to depreciate its currency . long term treasuries up , confirm no inflation risk perceived by markets and the fed. depreciation means also competitive advantage of china in cheap labor is intact while exports keep rising as attested by the strong figures of last gdp and reserves in usd are reinvested in treasuries supporting favorable liquidity for the us . this is how china has turned into an important rib of he american economy. what about europe, cant they play the same trick with other continents ? africa, asia ? loooks eur does not have the same clout as usd in the world economy, no wonder german bunds are more sensitive and euro rates are higher relative to the current growth . is this a dumping policy of china and usa together?


P/E low ? why
given high earnings the stock prices do not reflect high valuations of the 1997 in terms of p/e. yet some differences are worth pointing out, globalisation has affeced also the stock market with broader diversity and higher stock supply for investors willing to invest in no traditional markets .this has also a dampening effect on stock prices , deflating historically high equity prices for industrialised markets like diluted earnings for a new stock equity issue. what is the relationship of lower prices with equity premiums given the lost competitive advantage of former first movers ? ( see gordon growth model http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/012104.asp). have the perceived earnings diminished given the global dilution ? the world is richer , printing new money and spurring high growth from china. however global resources are not enough to sustain former ratios previous to sept 11. has dollar depreciation lowered global stock purchasing power deflating its p/e ?

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